I have a theory regarding the famous NHL 2 Team Road Parlay System. Would it work to wager, say $10, on each home team? I see it like this :
Home Team A +120
Home Team B +170
If one of the home teams wins, the bettor gets a couple bucks or maybe seven back. The main system goes to a B game.
If both road teams lose, a rare event I know, that would be $29.
Here is where I am asking for an opinion. When both road teams win, what to do. One option is to make two separate columns, Team A, and Team B. Stats show that at least 50% of the time one team will win. Going back to the example at the top, if Team A wins, would I subtract $2 from the $10 loss and work my way back? But Team B's column would go to minus $20, so I have pretty much ruled that out. What about keeping the hedge bet winnings and losses together? This could work. As the system plays out, adding $2, then $5, then $7, then subract $20 for a loss (a win on the other side), then likely add a few more dollars the next day, and so on. Given the occasional double win, it might make some money on the other side of the ledger betting on the home teams, just don't chase them. Any thoughts on this? ??
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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I have a theory regarding the famous NHL 2 Team Road Parlay System. Would it work to wager, say $10, on each home team? I see it like this :
Home Team A +120
Home Team B +170
If one of the home teams wins, the bettor gets a couple bucks or maybe seven back. The main system goes to a B game.
If both road teams lose, a rare event I know, that would be $29.
Here is where I am asking for an opinion. When both road teams win, what to do. One option is to make two separate columns, Team A, and Team B. Stats show that at least 50% of the time one team will win. Going back to the example at the top, if Team A wins, would I subtract $2 from the $10 loss and work my way back? But Team B's column would go to minus $20, so I have pretty much ruled that out. What about keeping the hedge bet winnings and losses together? This could work. As the system plays out, adding $2, then $5, then $7, then subract $20 for a loss (a win on the other side), then likely add a few more dollars the next day, and so on. Given the occasional double win, it might make some money on the other side of the ledger betting on the home teams, just don't chase them. Any thoughts on this? ??
Having no plans this evening, I decided to back check my theory. It didn't work. I used OddsShark > NHL > Matchups and Scores. I started the second day of the season because Day 1 had three games with only one road fave. If one home team won while the other lost, I added the small amount of profit. If both teams lost, I subtracted $20. If one of the home teams had a negative moneyline, like -105 or -110, I skipped that day. There wasn't a day when both home teams won. After eleven days, I would have been down $58. Oh well - back to the drawing board
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
Having no plans this evening, I decided to back check my theory. It didn't work. I used OddsShark > NHL > Matchups and Scores. I started the second day of the season because Day 1 had three games with only one road fave. If one home team won while the other lost, I added the small amount of profit. If both teams lost, I subtracted $20. If one of the home teams had a negative moneyline, like -105 or -110, I skipped that day. There wasn't a day when both home teams won. After eleven days, I would have been down $58. Oh well - back to the drawing board
I don't usually wager on basketball. I have noticed the top teams will win a few games, then get blown out by 20 points 2 out of their next 4. In college hoops, the teams change over too much to form a system. I have done the NBA Playoffs System. That's about it for me with basketball.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
@NavyDog
I don't usually wager on basketball. I have noticed the top teams will win a few games, then get blown out by 20 points 2 out of their next 4. In college hoops, the teams change over too much to form a system. I have done the NBA Playoffs System. That's about it for me with basketball.
I stumbled upon a college hoops system, and then recalled two I did a few years ago that were not too bad.
System #1
OddsShark lists current streaks both SU and ATS. Find teams that have covered 6 straight ATS. Go against that team ATS - chase up to 4 games. The concept is that it is rare for a team to cover 10 straight ATS. I have never tried it, but it seems like it could work. I would avoid games this time of year, however, and start around Dec. 20 to take advantage of more even competition.
System #2
Conference Play Only - If a team is on the road and is both favored and has a higher ranking, take the home team. I had some success with this one. Basically I would place a bet in the morning, have my day. Then turn on the game with a few minutes left to find an arena full of college students going crazy for an upset against a conference rival. It didn't alway work, but it is true what the sharps say about conference home underdogs in college sports, the crowd gets pumped. Now that I know a few betting progressions, I might give it a try in Jan - Feb.
Edit : The home team can be unranked as well. As long as the visiting team is both ranked and the ranking is higher.
System #3
The Ivy League System - This one did well for me. It takes a bit of homework, which is classic considering the conference involved. I came up with it after going on about the big time programs and their scandals, the one and done's, etc. The Ivy League does not have basketball scholarships. The players usualky stay for 4 years. The programs are consistent. I went back over every matchup, both home and road for the past 4 seasons. I then averaged the final scores for each team. For example : Princeton @ Harvard - I averaged the past 4 final scores for the road team (Princeton), and did the same for the home team (Harvard). I came up with a hypothetical final score. Then I compared it with the point spread and picked whatever team ATS that fit my proposed outcome. It required a couple hours research, but had a profit. I stopped after one year because I was only betting $5 a game at the time and it was too much work. Now that I am able to wager a bit more, I might.
Let me know
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
@NavyDog
I stumbled upon a college hoops system, and then recalled two I did a few years ago that were not too bad.
System #1
OddsShark lists current streaks both SU and ATS. Find teams that have covered 6 straight ATS. Go against that team ATS - chase up to 4 games. The concept is that it is rare for a team to cover 10 straight ATS. I have never tried it, but it seems like it could work. I would avoid games this time of year, however, and start around Dec. 20 to take advantage of more even competition.
System #2
Conference Play Only - If a team is on the road and is both favored and has a higher ranking, take the home team. I had some success with this one. Basically I would place a bet in the morning, have my day. Then turn on the game with a few minutes left to find an arena full of college students going crazy for an upset against a conference rival. It didn't alway work, but it is true what the sharps say about conference home underdogs in college sports, the crowd gets pumped. Now that I know a few betting progressions, I might give it a try in Jan - Feb.
Edit : The home team can be unranked as well. As long as the visiting team is both ranked and the ranking is higher.
System #3
The Ivy League System - This one did well for me. It takes a bit of homework, which is classic considering the conference involved. I came up with it after going on about the big time programs and their scandals, the one and done's, etc. The Ivy League does not have basketball scholarships. The players usualky stay for 4 years. The programs are consistent. I went back over every matchup, both home and road for the past 4 seasons. I then averaged the final scores for each team. For example : Princeton @ Harvard - I averaged the past 4 final scores for the road team (Princeton), and did the same for the home team (Harvard). I came up with a hypothetical final score. Then I compared it with the point spread and picked whatever team ATS that fit my proposed outcome. It required a couple hours research, but had a profit. I stopped after one year because I was only betting $5 a game at the time and it was too much work. Now that I am able to wager a bit more, I might.
Your system listed may not work well for the NBA -- that's all I do. NCAA hoops has too many teams. But what I used to do in college football was to concentrate on just two conferences, the Big Ten and Sec. Maybe that would work for college hoops, don't know. But thanks for the update. If ever you get into the NBA wagering, lemme know and maybe we can work on something.
1
Your system listed may not work well for the NBA -- that's all I do. NCAA hoops has too many teams. But what I used to do in college football was to concentrate on just two conferences, the Big Ten and Sec. Maybe that would work for college hoops, don't know. But thanks for the update. If ever you get into the NBA wagering, lemme know and maybe we can work on something.
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