Posted:
#26
wow. thanks man! will be closely looking at this. 
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GREATEST SYSTEM EVER Results for past 5 years!
Posted:
#27
Jeff,
First off, thank you for the hard work you've been putting in and not letting the haters get to you. It's obvious this system has a TON of potential. I hope you don't mind me throwing out some info, mostly as food for thought.
I've been crunching numbers in Excel and I thought I'd post some of them on here. The reason being is that while the results you've posted look great, people need to realize that bankroll management is going to determine weather or not they make some serious coin from this system or they go bust.
Assuming -150 average juice for a six game chase the units wagered are as follows:
G1: 1.5 to win 1
G2: 3.75 to win 2.5 (recovers the 1.5 from G1 and nets one unit)
G3: 9.375 to win 6.25
G4: 23.4375 to win 15.625
G5: 58.59375 to win 39.0625
G6: 146.4844 to win 97.65625
So what we can take away from this is, a three game chase loss is about 14.5 units, four game loss is about 38 units, five game loss is about 96.5 units, and a six game loss would be about 243 units. I double checked this a few times, but if I'm off on something, anyone is free to correct me.
I have definitely made the mistake of having a winning system, but getting a little to ambitious with my unit size. I know the numbers on this system look great, but even with $5 units, you need to be ready to have $1000 on the line for a game 6. I am not AT ALL trying to speak poorly of this system. I just want people who will be following to realize that having two or three chases overlap at one time, and possibly go beyond game three could require several hundred units. Please plan accordingly!
That all being said, you bet your behind I'm getting in on this. Careful bankroll management will result in some serious plus money this MLB season. The percentages look really good on games 1-3. I'll be crunching more numbers to look at both chase and labby results. Maybe an alternative for folks who want to get in, but don't have quite a large enough bankroll to go the distance with six games.
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Posted:
#28
Nagelan, I have done the exact same thing.
I copy & pasted my results here (if the link doesn't work, copy the two lines into 1 line).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aut5sPYPWjN6dFJ2dkZrM1BPbldWQ3B5bXRPeGR4UUE&usp=drive_web#gid=1
I ran it using straight Martingale chase & aggressive labby.
In my opinion, if you have a limited bankroll and cannot do a full 6 game chase, the best option is a 4 game Martingale chase. Labby will be less risk, but it will also win you less money.
I'm going to play around further and do combinations of labby and straight.
4 Game results over the past years:
+287, +172, +340, +171, +413
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Posted:
#29
Yeh , I agree game 6 makes it crazy. But me, I wanted to make it undefeated. 
4 game chase is more sane. But remember only 1.5% went past game 4!
4 game chase is more sane. But remember only 1.5% went past game 4! Oh I forgot to remind you guys there is a second part of this system that plays RL with the chase. The RL is hitting 2174-694 75.8% which means for every winning chase you hit the RL with it 75.8% of the time and those will be dogs most of the time.
Good luck to us all!
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Posted:
#30
Nice work Bart. I'm with you that a four game chase might be the sweet spot to be up plenty of units, without having to lay out so much. Also, I've been looking at compounding the unit size as a percent of bankroll, rather than a flat unit throughout the season. Pretty crazy potential when we may be looking at several hundred units on the season.
Jeff, I sent a friend request. I have a question I'd like to PM you.
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by Nagelan:
Nice work Bart. I'm with you that a four game chase might be the sweet spot to be up plenty of units, without having to lay out so much. Also, I've been looking at compounding the unit size as a percent of bankroll, rather than a flat unit throughout the season. Pretty crazy potential when we may be looking at several hundred units on the season.
Jeff, I sent a friend request. I have a question I'd like to PM you.
Accepted
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:
It's funny how we get clowns coming into threads spouting off hate! Amazing
I don't think he was really spouting off hate... he raises a valid point.
In the end everyone runs their betting how the they want. While personally I am not comfortable putting my money on something I have limited to no knowledge about, I wish you and your followers the best.. you do have a proven track record after all.
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Posted:
#38
There was definitely no hate intended. Hate is a strong word and has nothing to do with what is happening here. I hope everyone is successful, after all that is what we're here for. But as Goodsy said there is no info as to what people are putting their hard earned money towards. I understand you don't want to give all your hard work away, that's understandable.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:
There was definitely no hate intended. Hate is a strong word and has nothing to do with what is happening here. I hope everyone is successful, after all that is what we're here for. But as Goodsy said there is no info as to what people are putting their hard earned money towards. I understand you don't want to give all your hard work away, that's understandable.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
There was definitely no hate intended. Hate is a strong word and has nothing to do with what is happening here. I hope everyone is successful, after all that is what we're here for. But as Goodsy said there is no info as to what people are putting their hard earned money towards. I understand you don't want to give all your hard work away, that's understandable.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
Well said
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Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:
There was definitely no hate intended. Hate is a strong word and has nothing to do with what is happening here. I hope everyone is successful, after all that is what we're here for. But as Goodsy said there is no info as to what people are putting their hard earned money towards. I understand you don't want to give all your hard work away, that's understandable.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
There was definitely no hate intended. Hate is a strong word and has nothing to do with what is happening here. I hope everyone is successful, after all that is what we're here for. But as Goodsy said there is no info as to what people are putting their hard earned money towards. I understand you don't want to give all your hard work away, that's understandable.
My real point is that I can go spew out numbers and claim 1000's of hours of work when in actuality I spend 5min making up some crap and then spend 1000 hours hyping it up with no system parameters attached.
Good luck and I hope this is all you claim it to be and people make some cash.
It is one thing if he had created something and wants to charge you for it but he's put all this up for free (minus the actual details of his system obviously). Point is that he's not forcing you or anyone into this. It is up to those people with "hard earned money" to follow along AT THEIR OWN RISK
I will admit I'm slightly skeptical myself but it is up to me what I choose to do once the system commences. I know I will definitely at least be watching its progress closelly and judge for myself once it's "live".
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Posted:
#42
Normally, baseball chases are confined to individual series, betting one team to win a game during that series. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but this system has way too many plays per season to be confined to a simple series chase. There has to be more to it than that. It looks like there could be new chases starting on any day of the week, or that one team could possibly have more than one chase going on at the same time.
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Posted:
#43
Pretty excited and looking forward to MLB. I always wanted to try making my own systems but just dont have the time. I followed a guy last year in the SBR forum. He hit some bad beats and the forums tore him up and he stopped posting. Some real D**kheads in there. I'll play it small but really looking forward to this. BOL all and thanks ahead of time to Bart and ESPECIALLY Jeff for all the hard work.
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by MrXpert:
I wonder what results he has for past 5 years thats a lot of games to have to look at isnt it?
OR is it simply your lil made up system showing that you would have won the 1st game and 2 nd game more times than the other games in that 6 game chase system.
Yeah that's it. I betcha this chase system dosent tell you how to pick a team to chase on either? Or even how to handicap the games or any other skill.
WE all would have to wait for your picks in your system which is nothing more than what a tout will do.
YOU are never going to win 84% of your wagers with any system
matter of fact you only win 59% of A games and 29% of B games covering up the fact that your an average player by combining the two to say it's 84% wins.
And every other crack pipe guy in here is blinded by your posts missng that fact!
Go move to Vegas tell all the others who play there regularly about your chase system and be prepared to be laughed out of town.
What's your math behind 29% on B games?
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Posted:
#46
bart....for your projected(or retrospective) theoretical 4 game results did you just use an average moneyline cost of -150 a bet(x6 increasing bets obviously) to subtract for watever series loss/es may have occured??......that looks like exceptional results regardless,seriously seriously minimising the risk while maintaining very healthy profit..if i follow i think thats the way im gonna go....over 160 units in 5 months is nothing to be sneezed at in anyones language and that approach allows the unit size to be a wee bit bigger than if preparing for monstrous 6 game chases(shud they occur)....thanks for your input and obviously thanks to the hat man for sharing,looks like its got truck-loads of potential...possible reward far outweighs the risk of giving it a go in my view...
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Posted:
#48
Hope it all works out for you guys, frankly i dont see it happening. You have no idea what the parameters are, and no idea if the numbers are legit and no way to verify any of it. You dont even know what games to play unless Jeff posts it ...This ends up one of 3 ways...
1) hits a loss early, and Jeff dissapears, or for whatever reason it wasn't an "official loss" ...
2) most likely scenario .....it hits 30 or 40 wins in a row..(and chasing to game 6 with odds of -150, it statistically SHOULD go 30 games without a loss most of the time, even if you pick the games by throwing darts..) .. at this point Jeff states this proves his system is the greatest ever, and stops giving picks for free.. i mean really, if you all dont think he has an agenda for hyping this months and months in advance...think again
OR
3) ZERO chance of this happening.. Jeff posts a full season of games with these results... this will never happen
And, even if these results are all 100% legit, it is far from the greatest system ever, needing about 400 units to make 700 or so...175% return.. very good, but no better then a flat bettor who plays 3% a game being up 60 units... or even Ciscos 4 game dog chase that made 130 units, when needing about a 50 unit bankroll ..so almost a 300% return, AND the results are completely verifiable for all to see and play..
Now, Jeff will respond by insulting me in some way, but one way he will definetely NOT respond is by posting for a full season with these results.
Just my 2 cents, in the end I dont really care how it ends up..time will tell...gl
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