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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    French can't pitch: just another anti-sweep system

    12 Next Last»
    dimegoat
    Lippsman
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    Posts: 28
    12 Next Last»
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2018 - 3:01 AM ET #1

    Hi!

    trying to get into baseball after betting unsuccessfully on soccer which is a real pain in the azz to bet on. I've got a thread on a french forum but, you know, nobody cares about baseball on this side of the ocean.

    So, I bet usually on away dogs, to get the best odds. First I was betting quite blindly but I get tired of losing money with Royals, Tigers and Orioles... so I tried to be more selective.

    And then I followed Wally anti-sweep system for a time and thought this was the way to go, not pushing luck too far and not being greedy playing every game, eventually losing what you've earned the day before.

    Here we are, I'll try to post some picks here, even if I will probably stop for holidays, from mid-july to mid-august.

    Cardinals @ 2.38 (A) (european odds, sorry)

    Just been swept by the Braves but DBacks have gone the same way vs Giants, so...vae victis!

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hi!

    trying to get into baseball after betting unsuccessfully on soccer which is a real pain in the azz to bet on. I've got a thread on a french forum but, you know, nobody cares about baseball on this side of the ocean.

    So, I bet usually on away dogs, to get the best odds. First I was betting quite blindly but I get tired of losing money with Royals, Tigers and Orioles... so I tried to be more selective.

    And then I followed Wally anti-sweep system for a time and thought this was the way to go, not pushing luck too far and not being greedy playing every game, eventually losing what you've earned the day before.

    Here we are, I'll try to post some picks here, even if I will probably stop for holidays, from mid-july to mid-august.

    Cardinals @ 2.38 (A) (european odds, sorry)

    Just been swept by the Braves but DBacks have gone the same way vs Giants, so...vae victis!

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2018 - 3:05 AM ET #2

    I forgot to say: I bet to win 1u and then I bet to cover the losses +1u.

    So today I bet 0.72u

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    I forgot to say: I bet to win 1u and then I bet to cover the losses +1u.

    So today I bet 0.72u

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 3, 2018 - 12:41 AM ET #3

    1-0 (+1u)

    Should have played the Braves...won 55% of their "away dog" games. Even vs the Yankees, a good team remains a good team. Oh, well...

    Tonight:

    Giants @ 2.13

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    1-0 (+1u)

    Should have played the Braves...won 55% of their "away dog" games. Even vs the Yankees, a good team remains a good team. Oh, well...

    Tonight:

    Giants @ 2.13

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2018 - 4:20 AM ET #4

    Last: 0-1 (-0.88u) / Total: 1-1 (+0.12u)

    Tonight:

     

    Giants @ 2.08 (1.75u to win 3.63u)

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    Last: 0-1 (-0.88u) / Total: 1-1 (+0.12u)

    Tonight:

     

    Giants @ 2.08 (1.75u to win 3.63u)

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2018 - 5:51 AM ET #5

    Last: 0-1 (-1.75u) / Total: 1-2 (-1.63u)

    Damned Giants! swept by Rockies... well... I'll try to cover these 2.63u lost later.

    Tonight:

    Rangers @ 2.04

    Cardinals @ 2.26 (vs Giants...)

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    Last: 0-1 (-1.75u) / Total: 1-2 (-1.63u)

    Damned Giants! swept by Rockies... well... I'll try to cover these 2.63u lost later.

    Tonight:

    Rangers @ 2.04

    Cardinals @ 2.26 (vs Giants...)

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2018 - 10:17 AM ET #6

    And Braves @ 2.15

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    And Braves @ 2.15

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 6, 2018 - 2:13 AM ET #7

    Last: 2-1 (+1.13u) / Total: 3-3 (-0.5u)

    Cards & Rangers moneybag

    Braves an_burn_money

    Tonight:

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    Last: 2-1 (+1.13u) / Total: 3-3 (-0.5u)

    Cards & Rangers moneybag

    Braves an_burn_money

    Tonight:

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 6, 2018 - 2:16 AM ET #8

    Oups, sheet export didn't work:

    So, tonight:

    Braves 2.3: 1.44u to win 3.31u

    Athletics 2.75: 0.57u to win 1.57u

    Rays 2.52: 0.66u to win 1.66u

    Rockies 2.12: 0.85u to win 1.85u

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    Oups, sheet export didn't work:

    So, tonight:

    Braves 2.3: 1.44u to win 3.31u

    Athletics 2.75: 0.57u to win 1.57u

    Rays 2.52: 0.66u to win 1.66u

    Rockies 2.12: 0.85u to win 1.85u

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2018 - 1:27 AM ET #9

    Last: 1-3 (-1.67u) / Total: 4-6 (-2.17u)

    Rockies moneybag

    Braves, Rays, Athletics an_burn_money 

    Rough night for dogs. Those Braves are entering in a dangerous losing streak, and Brewers, on the opposite, are riding a winning one. No lines for Braves at the moment, I'll come back later.

    Stay cool, Y'all know the rules

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    Last: 1-3 (-1.67u) / Total: 4-6 (-2.17u)

    Rockies moneybag

    Braves, Rays, Athletics an_burn_money 

    Rough night for dogs. Those Braves are entering in a dangerous losing streak, and Brewers, on the opposite, are riding a winning one. No lines for Braves at the moment, I'll come back later.

    Stay cool, Y'all know the rules

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2018 - 7:17 AM ET #10

    Still waiting for Braves line.. . I post the 2 others because I'll be on the road.

    Athletics 3.42. 0.65u to win 2.22u
    Rays 1.819. 2.02 to win 3.68
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    Still waiting for Braves line.. . I post the 2 others because I'll be on the road.

    Athletics 3.42. 0.65u to win 2.22u
    Rays 1.819. 2.02 to win 3.68
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 7, 2018 - 10:36 AM ET #11

    Braves 1.97. 3.41u to win 6.72u
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    Braves 1.97. 3.41u to win 6.72u
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2018 - 2:09 AM ET #12

    Last: 3-0 (+6.54u) / Total: 7-6 (+4.37u)

    A's, Rays and Braves moneybagmoneybagmoneybag

    All series closed and cashed in. If i followed a straight martingale (1-2-4-8), I'd be +7.21u, thanks to the A's and +242 line. Got to think about it.

    No plays today, I guess.

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    Last: 3-0 (+6.54u) / Total: 7-6 (+4.37u)

    A's, Rays and Braves moneybagmoneybagmoneybag

    All series closed and cashed in. If i followed a straight martingale (1-2-4-8), I'd be +7.21u, thanks to the A's and +242 line. Got to think about it.

    No plays today, I guess.

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2018 - 1:56 AM ET #13

    Tonight:

    Reds 2.59 / 0.63u

    Almost played the A's against Astros (3.21) but with Cole on the mound and looking at recent head-to-head record, I feel uncomfortable. And when I'm thinking too much about a bet, I don't play it. Maybe I'll go aboard on gm2.

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    Tonight:

    Reds 2.59 / 0.63u

    Almost played the A's against Astros (3.21) but with Cole on the mound and looking at recent head-to-head record, I feel uncomfortable. And when I'm thinking too much about a bet, I don't play it. Maybe I'll go aboard on gm2.

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2018 - 3:50 AM ET #14

    Added Giants 2.02 / 0.98u

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    Added Giants 2.02 / 0.98u

     
    Lippsman
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2018 - 1:53 PM ET #15

    So this is not a blind anti sweep ?  You will sometimes lay off if you feel the sweep may happen the last game ?
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    So this is not a blind anti sweep ?  You will sometimes lay off if you feel the sweep may happen the last game ?
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2018 - 3:05 PM ET #16

    I try to handicap BEFORE the series, but when it starts I go all the way (unless the juice is too high). However, I can start a serie at gm 2 or 3...it really depends on the teams involved. I like A's, but vs Astros, these days, I don't know... numbers and guts say NO

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    I try to handicap BEFORE the series, but when it starts I go all the way (unless the juice is too high). However, I can start a serie at gm 2 or 3...it really depends on the teams involved. I like A's, but vs Astros, these days, I don't know... numbers and guts say NO

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2018 - 11:57 PM ET #17

    A's have won. Like Braves vs Yankees last time, I pass one of my favorite dog and one more unit not-won because of poor handicapping. Is there anything predictable in this sport? 
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    A's have won. Like Braves vs Yankees last time, I pass one of my favorite dog and one more unit not-won because of poor handicapping. Is there anything predictable in this sport? 
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 10, 2018 - 1:28 AM ET #18

    Last: 2-0 (+2u) / Total: 9-6 (+6.37u)

    Reds & Giants moneybagmoneybag

    Tonight:

    Diamondbacks 2.03 / 0.97u

    Mariners 2.34 / 0.75u

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    Last: 2-0 (+2u) / Total: 9-6 (+6.37u)

    Reds & Giants moneybagmoneybag

    Tonight:

    Diamondbacks 2.03 / 0.97u

    Mariners 2.34 / 0.75u

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2018 - 1:42 AM ET #19

    Last: 1-1 (+0.25u) / Total: 10-7 (+6.62u)

    DBacks moneybag

    Mariners an_burn_money

    Tonight:

    Mariners 2.04 / 1.68u

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    Last: 1-1 (+0.25u) / Total: 10-7 (+6.62u)

    DBacks moneybag

    Mariners an_burn_money

    Tonight:

    Mariners 2.04 / 1.68u

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2018 - 2:02 AM ET #20

    Also testing a 2-team parlay system, with monthly income money management system from Scoffo.

    Each parlay needs 2 consecutive wins to close a serie and win 5 units. Each parlay must be over +100 so we can use RL if necessary).

    One parlay to bet on teams like Red Sox / Astros (or Yankees or whatever)

    One parlay to fade Orioles / Royals (or White Sox...)

    Tracking this for a few weeks and we'll see

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    Also testing a 2-team parlay system, with monthly income money management system from Scoffo.

    Each parlay needs 2 consecutive wins to close a serie and win 5 units. Each parlay must be over +100 so we can use RL if necessary).

    One parlay to bet on teams like Red Sox / Astros (or Yankees or whatever)

    One parlay to fade Orioles / Royals (or White Sox...)

    Tracking this for a few weeks and we'll see

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 12, 2018 - 1:16 AM ET #21

    Last: 1-0 (+1.75u) / Total: 11-7 (+8.37u)

    Mariners moneybag

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    Last: 1-0 (+1.75u) / Total: 11-7 (+8.37u)

    Mariners moneybag

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 12, 2018 - 2:08 AM ET #22

    Tonight:

    Brewers 2.19 / 0.84u

    Going for a little trip this week-end so maybe I won't post records. Some nice series starting on friday (DBacks, Rangers, Reds, Mariners). Stay tuned

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    Tonight:

    Brewers 2.19 / 0.84u

    Going for a little trip this week-end so maybe I won't post records. Some nice series starting on friday (DBacks, Rangers, Reds, Mariners). Stay tuned

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
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    Posted: Jul. 12, 2018 - 6:09 AM ET #23

    Added:

    Rays @ Twins 1.909 / 1.10u

    Slight favorite but still...

    Yankees (1.9) @ Indians could be a pick too but always fear odd's dropping on further games

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    Added:

    Rays @ Twins 1.909 / 1.10u

    Slight favorite but still...

    Yankees (1.9) @ Indians could be a pick too but always fear odd's dropping on further games

     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2018
    Posts: 59
    Posted: Jul. 13, 2018 - 1:16 AM ET #24

    Last: 0-2 (-1.94u) / Total: 11-9 (+6.43u)

    Brewers & Rays an_burn_money an_burn_money

    Tonight:

    Brewers @ Pirates 1.925 / 1.99u

    Rays @ Twins 1.869 / 2.42u

    Diamondbacks @ Braves 2.28 / 0.78u

    Athletics @ Giants 2.47 / 0.68u

    Reds @ Cards 2.45 / 0.69u

    Will maybe add Mariners @ Rockies. Thread closed for the week-end, see you monday.

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    Last: 0-2 (-1.94u) / Total: 11-9 (+6.43u)

    Brewers & Rays an_burn_money an_burn_money

    Tonight:

    Brewers @ Pirates 1.925 / 1.99u

    Rays @ Twins 1.869 / 2.42u

    Diamondbacks @ Braves 2.28 / 0.78u

    Athletics @ Giants 2.47 / 0.68u

    Reds @ Cards 2.45 / 0.69u

    Will maybe add Mariners @ Rockies. Thread closed for the week-end, see you monday.

     
     
    dimegoat
    dimegoat
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2018
    Posts: 59
    Posted: Jul. 16, 2018 - 9:21 AM ET #25

    Total: 15-19 (-3.31u)

    A week-end to forgot.

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    Total: 15-19 (-3.31u)

    A week-end to forgot.

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