Looking for comments on the validity of percentages, years, overall bet sample size... and most importantly chances of profit proceeding with this into this season...
Not going to go into complete detail about what the system is... but if you have any questions to help you understand it better that I feel comfortable answering... please feel free to fire away!!!
Thanks for any insight in advance!!!
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Looking for comments on the validity of percentages, years, overall bet sample size... and most importantly chances of profit proceeding with this into this season...
Not going to go into complete detail about what the system is... but if you have any questions to help you understand it better that I feel comfortable answering... please feel free to fire away!!!
A 6 game chase using $100 as a betting unit size? That would take me way out of my comfort zone around game 3-4 depending on odds. At even odds you are looking at bets of 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
I do like the winning % and would consider playing this on a labby line if I had more details.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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A 6 game chase using $100 as a betting unit size? That would take me way out of my comfort zone around game 3-4 depending on odds. At even odds you are looking at bets of 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
I do like the winning % and would consider playing this on a labby line if I had more details.
A 6 game chase using $100 as a betting unit size? That would take me way out of my comfort zone around game 3-4 depending on odds. At even odds you are looking at bets of 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
I do like the winning % and would consider playing this on a labby line if I had more details.
Yea I mean it all depends on what kind of bankroll you have... in the average season you have 122 wins... so if all goes as expected... at the all-star break you should have enough to take a hit without even going into your bankroll... Personally I'm going to start the year with somewhere around 5-7k at the $100 level... but it would be just as easy to start with $5-700 at the $10 level... or something in between... thanks for your support though!
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
A 6 game chase using $100 as a betting unit size? That would take me way out of my comfort zone around game 3-4 depending on odds. At even odds you are looking at bets of 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200.
I do like the winning % and would consider playing this on a labby line if I had more details.
Yea I mean it all depends on what kind of bankroll you have... in the average season you have 122 wins... so if all goes as expected... at the all-star break you should have enough to take a hit without even going into your bankroll... Personally I'm going to start the year with somewhere around 5-7k at the $100 level... but it would be just as easy to start with $5-700 at the $10 level... or something in between... thanks for your support though!
In your other thread you said that the average odds are -135 to -145.
Is that still true?
2 6 game losses at -140 are for a total of 380 units.
I'd still say that is a pretty accurate guess... It just so happens the 2 losses were the Twins in 2011... which resulted in a loss of $6,000 at +odds and the Mets in 2007 which resulted in a loss of $6,600 at right around even odds as well...
Don't get me wrong... this is scary... and I know that going in... but to date the losses have been at small odds... and I'm hoping that's a good sign... as it means that when a team is struggling they go off at smaller odds... Not saying it's not possible to take a 9 or 10k loss with this... but at the same time... Hasn't happened yet... and over a 9 year span... I rather like my chances...
Any opinions on the amount of years and games backtested and the chance of this working?
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Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:
In your other thread you said that the average odds are -135 to -145.
Is that still true?
2 6 game losses at -140 are for a total of 380 units.
I'd still say that is a pretty accurate guess... It just so happens the 2 losses were the Twins in 2011... which resulted in a loss of $6,000 at +odds and the Mets in 2007 which resulted in a loss of $6,600 at right around even odds as well...
Don't get me wrong... this is scary... and I know that going in... but to date the losses have been at small odds... and I'm hoping that's a good sign... as it means that when a team is struggling they go off at smaller odds... Not saying it's not possible to take a 9 or 10k loss with this... but at the same time... Hasn't happened yet... and over a 9 year span... I rather like my chances...
Any opinions on the amount of years and games backtested and the chance of this working?
I'm just curious you must have dogs in the chase because just betting
- 110 for 6 game chase is 83.79 unit loss. Other than that 100 units a year very well done.
Did kind of already answer your question... but yea I end up with dogs in this chase... I'd say 15-20% of the time... I also end up with -200 type favorites 5-10% of the time... fairly wide range... but the sweet spot tends to be right around -140...
Thanks for the support
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Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:
I'm just curious you must have dogs in the chase because just betting
- 110 for 6 game chase is 83.79 unit loss. Other than that 100 units a year very well done.
Did kind of already answer your question... but yea I end up with dogs in this chase... I'd say 15-20% of the time... I also end up with -200 type favorites 5-10% of the time... fairly wide range... but the sweet spot tends to be right around -140...
[Quote: Originally Posted by Systemtrend] Nice. Will you share how it works or only give picks? [/Quote
I have no problem posting picks... but I'm not sure about exactly spelling everything out... Don't want everyone to do it and then have the idea no longer be my own... I know that sounds stupid... I mean my betting or even 100 peoples betting isn't going to affect Vegas even if it is gold... but I guess I'm just paranoid...
The concept I came up with however is BEYOND simple...and that's one of the things I like best about it... didn't do anything crazy with it... or do any kind of data-mining... came up with a simple concept... made 2 simple tweaks... not going back trying to eliminate losses... but trying to streamline the process to more accurately reflect the concept... and it worked...
I absolutely can't wait over a month for the baseball season to start!!!
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Systemtrend] Nice. Will you share how it works or only give picks? [/Quote
I have no problem posting picks... but I'm not sure about exactly spelling everything out... Don't want everyone to do it and then have the idea no longer be my own... I know that sounds stupid... I mean my betting or even 100 peoples betting isn't going to affect Vegas even if it is gold... but I guess I'm just paranoid...
The concept I came up with however is BEYOND simple...and that's one of the things I like best about it... didn't do anything crazy with it... or do any kind of data-mining... came up with a simple concept... made 2 simple tweaks... not going back trying to eliminate losses... but trying to streamline the process to more accurately reflect the concept... and it worked...
I absolutely can't wait over a month for the baseball season to start!!!
It just doesn't add up, like Bart said -140 is way more than -63 units per loss. 63 is for a 6 game even money all the way.
Jeff, like I said... that's the average loss the system has taken to date... both were small... So I guess if you want to do the math for a loss at -140 being the average loss amount for me I would appreciate that actually... The numbers were based on the ACTUAL losses taken...
The other thing about this is that the win numbers are actually lower than they are in reality... The fact that some of the series clearing wins were at +money means that the average +$10,811 per season should be a little bit higher... I'm guessing probably somewhere around $12,000??? but it's going to take a long time to go through that and figure out exact dollars...
If that was confusing here is what I mean...
I took every win at face value as $100 due to the fact that I WILL bet to win $100 no matter what... at the same time... if a team goes off at level 1 at +140... I will bet $100 to win $140... so that means the end of the year total would be $40 higher... there is obviously no negative affect of this... since the minimum win will still be $100... and I've already exactly calculated the 2 losses...
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Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:
It just doesn't add up, like Bart said -140 is way more than -63 units per loss. 63 is for a 6 game even money all the way.
Jeff, like I said... that's the average loss the system has taken to date... both were small... So I guess if you want to do the math for a loss at -140 being the average loss amount for me I would appreciate that actually... The numbers were based on the ACTUAL losses taken...
The other thing about this is that the win numbers are actually lower than they are in reality... The fact that some of the series clearing wins were at +money means that the average +$10,811 per season should be a little bit higher... I'm guessing probably somewhere around $12,000??? but it's going to take a long time to go through that and figure out exact dollars...
If that was confusing here is what I mean...
I took every win at face value as $100 due to the fact that I WILL bet to win $100 no matter what... at the same time... if a team goes off at level 1 at +140... I will bet $100 to win $140... so that means the end of the year total would be $40 higher... there is obviously no negative affect of this... since the minimum win will still be $100... and I've already exactly calculated the 2 losses...
Dino, here's the nuts and bolts of what I see here. Since this system only averages 122 wins a season you take 1 loss at your -140 you lose 59 units for the season. So you are relying on no losses which is fine or losses that are -123 on average or less. So that being said I'M OUT!
Good luck with this though , may your system continue to prosper.
The Hat
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Dino, here's the nuts and bolts of what I see here. Since this system only averages 122 wins a season you take 1 loss at your -140 you lose 59 units for the season. So you are relying on no losses which is fine or losses that are -123 on average or less. So that being said I'M OUT!
Good luck with this though , may your system continue to prosper.
Nice. Will you share how it works or only give picks? [/Quote
I have no problem posting picks... but I'm not sure about exactly spelling everything out... Don't want everyone to do it and then have the idea no longer be my own... I know that sounds stupid... I mean my betting or even 100 peoples betting isn't going to affect Vegas even if it is gold... but I guess I'm just paranoid...
The concept I came up with however is BEYOND simple...and that's one of the things I like best about it... didn't do anything crazy with it... or do any kind of data-mining... came up with a simple concept... made 2 simple tweaks... not going back trying to eliminate losses... but trying to streamline the process to more accurately reflect the concept... and it worked...
I absolutely can't wait over a month for the baseball season to start!!!
If you don't want people to follow and would rather be on your own, why did you post in the first place?
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Quote Originally Posted by DinoSadies:
Quote Originally Posted by Systemtrend:
Nice. Will you share how it works or only give picks? [/Quote
I have no problem posting picks... but I'm not sure about exactly spelling everything out... Don't want everyone to do it and then have the idea no longer be my own... I know that sounds stupid... I mean my betting or even 100 peoples betting isn't going to affect Vegas even if it is gold... but I guess I'm just paranoid...
The concept I came up with however is BEYOND simple...and that's one of the things I like best about it... didn't do anything crazy with it... or do any kind of data-mining... came up with a simple concept... made 2 simple tweaks... not going back trying to eliminate losses... but trying to streamline the process to more accurately reflect the concept... and it worked...
I absolutely can't wait over a month for the baseball season to start!!!
If you don't want people to follow and would rather be on your own, why did you post in the first place?
If you don't want people to follow and would rather be on your own, why did you post in the first place?
[/Quote
To be shut down... like this...
Dino, here's the nuts and bolts of what I see here. Since this system only averages 122 wins a season you take 1 loss at your -140 you lose 59 units for the season. So you are relying on no losses which is fine or losses that are -123 on average or less. So that being said I'M OUT!
Good luck with this though , may your system continue to prosper.
The Hat
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[Quote: Originally Posted by puppetm716]
If you don't want people to follow and would rather be on your own, why did you post in the first place?
[/Quote
To be shut down... like this...
Dino, here's the nuts and bolts of what I see here. Since this system only averages 122 wins a season you take 1 loss at your -140 you lose 59 units for the season. So you are relying on no losses which is fine or losses that are -123 on average or less. So that being said I'M OUT!
Good luck with this though , may your system continue to prosper.
Basic concept... top half of the league when they are playing at home... who they are playing is just based on when the chase is triggered... Most teams end up being favorites at home obviously... but every once in a while they do end up being a dog...
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Basic concept... top half of the league when they are playing at home... who they are playing is just based on when the chase is triggered... Most teams end up being favorites at home obviously... but every once in a while they do end up being a dog...
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