Posted:
#51
Also on fridays plays are they over or unders ????You didnt state it in the post.
Thanks
BK
0
...expertcapper "old simple system"...
Posted:
#52
Gasman, expert nice job!
Here is a little spinoff from this system. Let me know what you think. I have gone back to the beginning of the season for this one....
Use your system as stated:
1) Wait for an OT/SO game.
2) Look at the line on both teams' next games.
3) If the o/u line is 5.0 take the OVER.
4) If the o/u line is 5.5 take the UNDER
5) If the o/u line is 6.0 take the OVER
6) Chase team for 3 games (using the 1-unit, 2-unit, 4-unit method)
Here are a few more twists...
7) If game is a loser, and that game also goes into OT/SO, continue playing old series as normal, but start a NEW series with that team as well. For instance, if chasing Atlanta under in game 2 of a chase and Atlanta beats Dallas in OT 4-3, the game is a loser. Play Atlanta for the 3rd game of a chase and in addition play Atlanta and Dallas as 1st games of a new chase.
If you did this from the beginning of the year the series record is 213-22 (+59 units) not factoring the juice. Furthermore, chasing just a 2-game series, the record is 193-44 (+61 units) not factoring the juice.
This is where it gets interesting.... Apply the next stipulation...
8) Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team. For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).
Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice. This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units). Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice. Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units).
The system also does not take into consideration average goals scored for a team or against a team, so we are not excluding any teams even if they are the top scroing team in the league.
So let me know your thoughts here. It seems advantageous to chase any team on a two game chase but only the home team during a 3-game chase, compounding multiple series on the same team.
Here is a little spinoff from this system. Let me know what you think. I have gone back to the beginning of the season for this one....
Use your system as stated:
1) Wait for an OT/SO game.
2) Look at the line on both teams' next games.
3) If the o/u line is 5.0 take the OVER.
4) If the o/u line is 5.5 take the UNDER
5) If the o/u line is 6.0 take the OVER
6) Chase team for 3 games (using the 1-unit, 2-unit, 4-unit method)
Here are a few more twists...
7) If game is a loser, and that game also goes into OT/SO, continue playing old series as normal, but start a NEW series with that team as well. For instance, if chasing Atlanta under in game 2 of a chase and Atlanta beats Dallas in OT 4-3, the game is a loser. Play Atlanta for the 3rd game of a chase and in addition play Atlanta and Dallas as 1st games of a new chase.
If you did this from the beginning of the year the series record is 213-22 (+59 units) not factoring the juice. Furthermore, chasing just a 2-game series, the record is 193-44 (+61 units) not factoring the juice.
This is where it gets interesting.... Apply the next stipulation...
8) Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team. For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).
Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice. This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units). Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice. Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units).
The system also does not take into consideration average goals scored for a team or against a team, so we are not excluding any teams even if they are the top scroing team in the league.
So let me know your thoughts here. It seems advantageous to chase any team on a two game chase but only the home team during a 3-game chase, compounding multiple series on the same team.
0
Posted:
#55
usakangy....."8) Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team. For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).
Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice. This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units). Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice. Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units). "
Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice. This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units). Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice. Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units). "
WOW... I love hockey games even more now...
0
Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by bigkeith:
It would be intresting to see if someone was to back-test this system for lets say 3 seasons ??????
Then you could have some really good numbers to go by.
BK
This will take some time, but Covers lists the records from the past two full seasons, so we can have a 2 1/2 year gauge. I will start on that unless someone has already started this. Please let me know. I will start on last season's stats first.
0
Posted:
#57
USAKANGY
Covers goes back over 10 years plus, just go to NHL, Teams, and past results and it will come up all the years you need to back-test this system.
Here is the million dollar question thu. When you go to back-test what system and filter are you going to use ????
I have done many back-testing systems for over 3 years now in MY IMHO I would go back at least 5 years and use 2 different filters total.
Yes it will take a few days, However the end result could be huge and at that point even the Books can beat it due to long stamnia of the system working correctly.
5 Years is the # WE need. If the trend is there after 5 years its set to go for good. IF YOU NEED HELP LET ME KNOW ????
WE could split the years up I just need to know the system and filters we are going to use.
BigK
0
Posted:
#59
I also wanted to let everyone know where we stand using this system so we are all on the same page and can track it. Gasman, let me know (since this is your thread) if you want me to create a new thread for tracking the plays going forward. Either way is fine by me, sorry to step on your toes in your thread bro.
System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (213-22 +59 units)
System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (193-44 +61 units)
System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (108-8 +52 units)
System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (98-19 +41 units)
Series still open (with the chase # for that team's next game, date the OT game was played and whether team was home or away the day of the OT game): The teams listed should go hand-in-hand with the open teams from the original system.
Tampa Bay (game 3; 12/18; Home)
Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
Edmonton (game 2; 12/19; Home)
Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
Pittsburgh (game 1; 12/22; Away)
Buffalo (game 1; 12/22; Home)
Washington (game 1; 12/23; Away)
NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
Phoenix (game 1; 12/23; Away)
Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)
For those wanting to try it, I would suggest jumping in on the game 1's and play very small per dollar units. Please keep in mind we are just tracking this at this time.
So the games on 12/26 would be...
1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER - Systems A/B
2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) NL yet - Systems A/B
1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington NL yet - Systems C/D
4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER - Systems A/B/C (D has already lost)
2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER - Systems A/B
2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER - Systems A/B/C/D
1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER - Systems A/B
System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (213-22 +59 units)
System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (193-44 +61 units)
System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (108-8 +52 units)
System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (98-19 +41 units)
Series still open (with the chase # for that team's next game, date the OT game was played and whether team was home or away the day of the OT game): The teams listed should go hand-in-hand with the open teams from the original system.
Tampa Bay (game 3; 12/18; Home)
Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
Edmonton (game 2; 12/19; Home)
Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
Pittsburgh (game 1; 12/22; Away)
Buffalo (game 1; 12/22; Home)
Washington (game 1; 12/23; Away)
NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
Phoenix (game 1; 12/23; Away)
Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)
For those wanting to try it, I would suggest jumping in on the game 1's and play very small per dollar units. Please keep in mind we are just tracking this at this time.
So the games on 12/26 would be...
1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER - Systems A/B
2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) NL yet - Systems A/B
1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington NL yet - Systems C/D
4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER - Systems A/B/C (D has already lost)
2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER - Systems A/B
2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER - Systems A/B/C/D
1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER - Systems A/B
0
Posted:
#62
...kangy....I think we should both start new threads since this one is getting too long. I will repost my criteria for this
"expertcapper NHL criteria...simple system"
You repost your criteria with all of the a,b,c,d, possibilities...
...then we can watch both threads and win some cash...
I am on vacation and cannot look at data from the past 5 years but if you and bigkeith can do the data and post....FANTASTIC!!!
0
Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:
Don't fault you for trying a system, but a loss is a loss and the 50-1 is false. ANY loss needs to be counted, regardless if you are chasing; therefore, those numbers are severely skewed and embellished.
Not true. The numbers are based off of winning the chase, not each game. The numbers are fine because you are chasing the lose in hopes of a win.
0
Posted:
#65
Wizard, I think what he means is a series win!
Game 1 of a series is +1 unit for a win and -1.1 for a loss.
Game 2 of a series is +1 unit total for a win and -3.3 total for a loss.
Game 3 of a series is +1 unit total for a win, -7.7 for a loss.
So if you looked at units, 50-1 would be something close to 42-43 units in the green.
Game 1 of a series is +1 unit for a win and -1.1 for a loss.
Game 2 of a series is +1 unit total for a win and -3.3 total for a loss.
Game 3 of a series is +1 unit total for a win, -7.7 for a loss.
So if you looked at units, 50-1 would be something close to 42-43 units in the green.
0
Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:
Wizard, I think what he means is a series win!
Game 1 of a series is +1 unit for a win and -1.1 for a loss.
Game 2 of a series is +1 unit total for a win and -3.3 total for a loss.
Game 3 of a series is +1 unit total for a win, -7.7 for a loss.
So if you looked at units, 50-1 would be something close to 42-43 units in the green.
I'll check the system. Sorry, thought you meant 42-43 as opposed to up 42-43 units. That 3rd loss of 7.7 units is huge though.
Wizard, I think what he means is a series win!
Game 1 of a series is +1 unit for a win and -1.1 for a loss.
Game 2 of a series is +1 unit total for a win and -3.3 total for a loss.
Game 3 of a series is +1 unit total for a win, -7.7 for a loss.
So if you looked at units, 50-1 would be something close to 42-43 units in the green.
0
Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:
...yes chevy...i quit chasing after the 3rd game...
...i even thought about straight betting 1-1-1- to even limit my losses even more but decided to bet the 1-2-4 system
....I am a small gambler with small stakes,...
Just reread this stop-loss part. Good luck with it. Just hate that 3 losses in a row kills a lot of wins.
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