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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Dog Streak Chase 2014

    12 Next Last»
    Bart_
    JEFFTHEHAT
    dbartoletbet
    radar06
    INTHEEND
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    12 Next Last»
     
    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2014 - 10:44 AM ET #1

    Hello friends. I am going to be running the 5 Run, Home Fav and Dog Streak chases for Cisco this year. All three will be on the same doc. To avoid confusion, I will make a thread per system. 

    I am going to be posting plays on Google Doc with periodic updates on this thread. Since I cannot protect individual sheets in the new Google Docs, I will have the lock the entire spreadsheet to avoid people messing around. Once I can protect individual sheets, I will open up the Cave sheet so people can post their questions and comments in there. Until then, please use this thread. 

    Rules are posted on the spreadsheet. 

    Here is the link for the 2014 doc:
    https://tinyurl.com/kcws6z8

    Previous years results:
    Dog Streak Past Results
    2012190-3 +130u
    2013181-1 +157.8
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Hello friends. I am going to be running the 5 Run, Home Fav and Dog Streak chases for Cisco this year. All three will be on the same doc. To avoid confusion, I will make a thread per system. 

    I am going to be posting plays on Google Doc with periodic updates on this thread. Since I cannot protect individual sheets in the new Google Docs, I will have the lock the entire spreadsheet to avoid people messing around. Once I can protect individual sheets, I will open up the Cave sheet so people can post their questions and comments in there. Until then, please use this thread. 

    Rules are posted on the spreadsheet. 

    Here is the link for the 2014 doc:
    https://tinyurl.com/kcws6z8

    Previous years results:
    Dog Streak Past Results
    2012190-3 +130u
    2013181-1 +157.8
     
    JEFFTHEHAT
    JEFFTHEHAT
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2014 - 12:14 PM ET #2

    Rules for dog chase not posted anywhere
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    Rules for dog chase not posted anywhere
     
    dbartoletbet
    dbartoletbet
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2014 - 12:41 PM ET #3

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KlKyCntP1Fp8e5nb3U2zCSAXn5852ecVAdHil2N775I/edit#gid=1292538285

    Same with this one.
    I corrected it for you
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    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KlKyCntP1Fp8e5nb3U2zCSAXn5852ecVAdHil2N775I/edit#gid=1292538285

    Same with this one.
    I corrected it for you
     
    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 8, 2014 - 1:26 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

    Rules for dog chase not posted anywhere

    Rules tab, starting on line 21. 

    Note that the rules have evolved slightly over the years. For example, when we started 2 years ago, we always skipped 2 games. Last year we changed it to the 7 day rule. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

    Rules for dog chase not posted anywhere

    Rules tab, starting on line 21. 

    Note that the rules have evolved slightly over the years. For example, when we started 2 years ago, we always skipped 2 games. Last year we changed it to the 7 day rule. 
     
    radar06
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    Posted: Mar. 11, 2014 - 12:43 AM ET #5

    In the Google docs of past results, which tab has the results of the Dog streak?

    On the "chat" tab for this year's google docs cisco posted "playing dogs +1.5RL is the key to success".  Is he referring to the Dog streak?

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    In the Google docs of past results, which tab has the results of the Dog streak?

    On the "chat" tab for this year's google docs cisco posted "playing dogs +1.5RL is the key to success".  Is he referring to the Dog streak?

     
    INTHEEND
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    Posted: Mar. 12, 2014 - 1:36 PM ET #6

    I was looking into the Dog Chase with great interest.  I tried adapting it to last years schedule and failed.  When it says dog chase and 3 in a row are you following a dog for 3 gms meaning the Cubs would as a dog would have to win 3 in a row or lose 3 in a row.  If that part is true does it have to be consecutive  I read the rules but could not figure where the dog part fit in.   
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    I was looking into the Dog Chase with great interest.  I tried adapting it to last years schedule and failed.  When it says dog chase and 3 in a row are you following a dog for 3 gms meaning the Cubs would as a dog would have to win 3 in a row or lose 3 in a row.  If that part is true does it have to be consecutive  I read the rules but could not figure where the dog part fit in.   
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 12, 2014 - 3:30 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by radar06:

    In the Google docs of past results, which tab has the results of the Dog streak?

    On the "chat" tab for this year's google docs cisco posted "playing dogs +1.5RL is the key to success".  Is he referring to the Dog streak?


    I will try and clean those up with the same formatting as this year. 

    He is referring to the streaks and the 5 run chase. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by radar06:

    In the Google docs of past results, which tab has the results of the Dog streak?

    On the "chat" tab for this year's google docs cisco posted "playing dogs +1.5RL is the key to success".  Is he referring to the Dog streak?


    I will try and clean those up with the same formatting as this year. 

    He is referring to the streaks and the 5 run chase. 
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 12, 2014 - 3:50 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by INTHEEND:

    I was looking into the Dog Chase with great interest.  I tried adapting it to last years schedule and failed.  When it says dog chase and 3 in a row are you following a dog for 3 gms meaning the Cubs would as a dog would have to win 3 in a row or lose 3 in a row.  If that part is true does it have to be consecutive  I read the rules but could not figure where the dog part fit in.   

    For the dog chase there are 4 possible chases scenarios:
    HDW - Home Dog Win
    HDL - Home Dog Loss
    RDW - Road Dog Win
    RDL  - Road Dog Loss

    You chase whatever the 3 game consecutive streak was under that scenario.  

    Using the 2013 Cubs as an example:
    April 1 - RDW (steak = 1)
    April 3 - RDL (streak = 1)
    April 4 - RDW (steak = 1)
    April 5 - RDL (streak = 1)
    April 6 - RDL (streak = 2)
    April 7 - RDL (streak = 3)

    Since they hit 3 consecutive games as RDL, we now wait for them to break the streak by winning as a RD, then skipping 2 games, then playing a 4 game chase to repeat the streak. 

    April 8 to 18 they played at home so those games do not affect our RD plays. 
    April 19-22 - all RDL (streak = 4 to 7)
    April 23 - RDW (streak broken, we call this Mark game)
    April 24 - RDL (skip 1)
    April 25 - RF - since they were a favorite, we ignore this game. 
    April 26 - RDW (skip 2)
    April 27 & 28 - RF - again, we ignore these two games because they were favorites. 
    April 29 to May 8 - home stretch, ignore for RD. 
    May 10 - RDL (streak 1) - this is our Game 1. Cubs lost, you won. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by INTHEEND:

    I was looking into the Dog Chase with great interest.  I tried adapting it to last years schedule and failed.  When it says dog chase and 3 in a row are you following a dog for 3 gms meaning the Cubs would as a dog would have to win 3 in a row or lose 3 in a row.  If that part is true does it have to be consecutive  I read the rules but could not figure where the dog part fit in.   

    For the dog chase there are 4 possible chases scenarios:
    HDW - Home Dog Win
    HDL - Home Dog Loss
    RDW - Road Dog Win
    RDL  - Road Dog Loss

    You chase whatever the 3 game consecutive streak was under that scenario.  

    Using the 2013 Cubs as an example:
    April 1 - RDW (steak = 1)
    April 3 - RDL (streak = 1)
    April 4 - RDW (steak = 1)
    April 5 - RDL (streak = 1)
    April 6 - RDL (streak = 2)
    April 7 - RDL (streak = 3)

    Since they hit 3 consecutive games as RDL, we now wait for them to break the streak by winning as a RD, then skipping 2 games, then playing a 4 game chase to repeat the streak. 

    April 8 to 18 they played at home so those games do not affect our RD plays. 
    April 19-22 - all RDL (streak = 4 to 7)
    April 23 - RDW (streak broken, we call this Mark game)
    April 24 - RDL (skip 1)
    April 25 - RF - since they were a favorite, we ignore this game. 
    April 26 - RDW (skip 2)
    April 27 & 28 - RF - again, we ignore these two games because they were favorites. 
    April 29 to May 8 - home stretch, ignore for RD. 
    May 10 - RDL (streak 1) - this is our Game 1. Cubs lost, you won. 

     
    INTHEEND
    INTHEEND
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 10:09 AM ET #9

    Thank you, very nice explanation that clears up just about everything.  One thing here.  In the case of the Cubs example had that first game on April 4th not been a RD it would not have started the tracking correct.  Meaning everything in the sequence has to match.  A RD has to start the tracking in this case a RDW.  Then next games were road dog losses.  Then one had to wait for the RD win and skip 2 games of RD what ever the out come and now start.  Everything has to follow the road dog sequence is my question.
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    Thank you, very nice explanation that clears up just about everything.  One thing here.  In the case of the Cubs example had that first game on April 4th not been a RD it would not have started the tracking correct.  Meaning everything in the sequence has to match.  A RD has to start the tracking in this case a RDW.  Then next games were road dog losses.  Then one had to wait for the RD win and skip 2 games of RD what ever the out come and now start.  Everything has to follow the road dog sequence is my question.
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 11:46 AM ET #10

    Yes. You will have two main sequences. HD and RD. From there you will have W and L streaks
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    Yes. You will have two main sequences. HD and RD. From there you will have W and L streaks
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2014 - 11:48 AM ET #11

    Slight correction to your post, April 4th game broke the L streak.
    April 5-22 RD's was the streak to follow.

    Let me know if you need other examples.
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    Slight correction to your post, April 4th game broke the L streak.
    April 5-22 RD's was the streak to follow.

    Let me know if you need other examples.
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 7:44 AM ET #12

    Hi Bart

     to be sure i got this, using the 2013 twins, is this correct ?

    5/7 RDW
    5/8 RDW
    5/9 RDW

    5/20 RDL - Mark game

    5/23 RDL - we win the chase

    thanks !
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    Hi Bart

     to be sure i got this, using the 2013 twins, is this correct ?

    5/7 RDW
    5/8 RDW
    5/9 RDW

    5/20 RDL - Mark game

    5/23 RDL - we win the chase

    thanks !
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 7:52 AM ET #13

    sorry, missed part of it, see below..is this correct ?

    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

    Hi Bart

     to be sure i got this, using the 2013 twins, is this correct ?

    5/7 RDW
    5/8 RDW
    5/9 RDW

    5/20 RDL - Mark game
    5/21 skip
    5/22 skip

    5/23 RDL - A game loss
    5/24 - no play odds are over +150
    5/25 no play odds are over +150
    5/26 no play odds are over +150
    5/27 RDW - we win on B game


    thanks !
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    sorry, missed part of it, see below..is this correct ?

    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

    Hi Bart

     to be sure i got this, using the 2013 twins, is this correct ?

    5/7 RDW
    5/8 RDW
    5/9 RDW

    5/20 RDL - Mark game
    5/21 skip
    5/22 skip

    5/23 RDL - A game loss
    5/24 - no play odds are over +150
    5/25 no play odds are over +150
    5/26 no play odds are over +150
    5/27 RDW - we win on B game


    thanks !
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 8:01 AM ET #14

    sorry for all the questions, just want to make sure i got this so i can do some back testing pre 2012  ...given the scenario above, can chases overlap ?, by this i mean, during the mark game and skip games above we hit a 3 game RDL streak (5/20, 5/21,5/22)  our point game for this one was 5/25 .. and the 2 skip games would be 5/26 and our RDW on 5/27  ...so are we now on a RDL chase ?....thanks again !
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    sorry for all the questions, just want to make sure i got this so i can do some back testing pre 2012  ...given the scenario above, can chases overlap ?, by this i mean, during the mark game and skip games above we hit a 3 game RDL streak (5/20, 5/21,5/22)  our point game for this one was 5/25 .. and the 2 skip games would be 5/26 and our RDW on 5/27  ...so are we now on a RDL chase ?....thanks again !
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 11:48 AM ET #15

    Neilsy, the only thing you forgot is that we play RDW and HDW on the RL so MIN would have won the game on May 23rd and the series would be over. 

    I want to avoid the overlap of chases where possible. Cisco used to play the first streak that marked & waited on the second streak until the 1st was completed. 

    I am in favor of eliminating the plays if a +150 skip game would have hit. This way we avoid majority of overlapping plays. I will add that to the rules. 

    Keep in mind that we use Pinnacle's closing lines, not opening. The May 23rd MIN game opened at +163, but closed at +148. 

    I want to back test further too. Let me know what year you are working on and I'll pick a different year to save time. 


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    Neilsy, the only thing you forgot is that we play RDW and HDW on the RL so MIN would have won the game on May 23rd and the series would be over. 

    I want to avoid the overlap of chases where possible. Cisco used to play the first streak that marked & waited on the second streak until the 1st was completed. 

    I am in favor of eliminating the plays if a +150 skip game would have hit. This way we avoid majority of overlapping plays. I will add that to the rules. 

    Keep in mind that we use Pinnacle's closing lines, not opening. The May 23rd MIN game opened at +163, but closed at +148. 

    I want to back test further too. Let me know what year you are working on and I'll pick a different year to save time. 


     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 12:19 PM ET #16

    thanks for the clarification Bart, in am gonna get started on 2011  ..
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    thanks for the clarification Bart, in am gonna get started on 2011  ..
     
    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 1:58 PM ET #17

    sent you a friend request
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    sent you a friend request
     
    da-Genius
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 2:27 PM ET #18

    this was 156-3 +96 in 2011
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdHBGRVZQV2dBMjBKeFBZd3NRMUhiX0E&authkey=CPL0zYgC&hl=en&authkey=CPL0zYgC#gid=30
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    this was 156-3 +96 in 2011
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdHBGRVZQV2dBMjBKeFBZd3NRMUhiX0E&authkey=CPL0zYgC&hl=en&authkey=CPL0zYgC#gid=30
     
    da-Genius
    da-Genius
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 2:31 PM ET #19

    ADG ran this system for Cisco in 2012
    here are his results.. little different than what you posted
    163-3 +63.87
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdGNGTVNMZjZoUHlYaUdndHo0a2JWYXc&usp=drive_web#gid=30
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    ADG ran this system for Cisco in 2012
    here are his results.. little different than what you posted
    163-3 +63.87
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdGNGTVNMZjZoUHlYaUdndHo0a2JWYXc&usp=drive_web#gid=30
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 8:46 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by da-Genius:

    ADG ran this system for Cisco in 2012
    here are his results.. little different than what you posted
    163-3 +63.87
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdGNGTVNMZjZoUHlYaUdndHo0a2JWYXc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

    Thanks man. I was using poor data to review those results. 
    I will ask the mods to update the results in the first post to that. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by da-Genius:

    ADG ran this system for Cisco in 2012
    here are his results.. little different than what you posted
    163-3 +63.87
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdGNGTVNMZjZoUHlYaUdndHo0a2JWYXc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

    Thanks man. I was using poor data to review those results. 
    I will ask the mods to update the results in the first post to that. 
     
    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2014 - 9:04 PM ET #21

    Updated results:

    2011 163-3 +63.87
    2012 156-3 +96
    2013 181-1 +157.8
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    Updated results:

    2011 163-3 +63.87
    2012 156-3 +96
    2013 181-1 +157.8
     
    Bart_
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2014 - 4:24 PM ET #22

    SEA +1.5 Game 1
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    SEA +1.5 Game 1
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2014 - 7:26 AM ET #23

    Winner!
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    Winner!
     
    bbreit
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2014 - 8:57 AM ET #24

    Hey Bart....a little confused. I had skip game 2 last night. Game 1 today. Pretty much the same as your spreadsheet? Are we only skipping 1? Sorry the confusion.
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    Hey Bart....a little confused. I had skip game 2 last night. Game 1 today. Pretty much the same as your spreadsheet? Are we only skipping 1? Sorry the confusion.
     
     
    bbreit
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2014 - 8:58 AM ET #25

    Sorry for the confusion.....now I'm typing like buster.
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    Sorry for the confusion.....now I'm typing like buster.
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