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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    DESTROY THE NERDS !! ..DOUBLE YOUR BANKROLL

    neilsy25
    dj_destroyer
    kreatture
    jbkizzle
    alldayinvestor
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    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 1:31 AM ET #1

    Maybe a bit of a childish title. I dont care, this has gotten personal. This thread will "destroy" the profits being made by the top anti-martingale nerd on this site. And it will do it using a controlled Martingale progression (you know, the fatalistic one.). Sick and tired of pompous asses coming into everyones threads acting like they are smarter then everyone else, and their way is the only way. I have transferred  roll of 4k for this project, each individual chase will use 5% of this roll...it will be the same progression I have been using  3 levels of betting 7% , 23% and 70%. The difference is that i will chase to 9 wins which will yield a 2.5% increase to my bankroll when reached. According to every streak odds calculator on the internet (but not the nerds math) I should bust about 7% of the time. Simple math that even i can understand states that if i win 2.5% of my roll 9 times out of 10,,and lose 5% 1 time out of 10 ..i will show a profit of 17.5% every 10 chases (on avg)   because the nerds are programmed to say that it makes no sense to bet  70% ..they dont understand that ,,,70% of 5% of your roll is actually the same as a 3.5% play when flat betting. Please nerds dont come in here with links to your math textbooks,and incorrect math formulas.. "you use your methods, i will use mine"....First plays tommorow..

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Maybe a bit of a childish title. I dont care, this has gotten personal. This thread will "destroy" the profits being made by the top anti-martingale nerd on this site. And it will do it using a controlled Martingale progression (you know, the fatalistic one.). Sick and tired of pompous asses coming into everyones threads acting like they are smarter then everyone else, and their way is the only way. I have transferred  roll of 4k for this project, each individual chase will use 5% of this roll...it will be the same progression I have been using  3 levels of betting 7% , 23% and 70%. The difference is that i will chase to 9 wins which will yield a 2.5% increase to my bankroll when reached. According to every streak odds calculator on the internet (but not the nerds math) I should bust about 7% of the time. Simple math that even i can understand states that if i win 2.5% of my roll 9 times out of 10,,and lose 5% 1 time out of 10 ..i will show a profit of 17.5% every 10 chases (on avg)   because the nerds are programmed to say that it makes no sense to bet  70% ..they dont understand that ,,,70% of 5% of your roll is actually the same as a 3.5% play when flat betting. Please nerds dont come in here with links to your math textbooks,and incorrect math formulas.. "you use your methods, i will use mine"....First plays tommorow..

     
    dj_destroyer
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 1:58 AM ET #2

    Good luck.
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    Good luck.
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 2:08 AM ET #3

    thanks
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    thanks
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 2:30 AM ET #4

    I won't post any formulas for you neilsy.. but I have to say I'm extremely disappointed in this.. I only take sides when I truly believe one side is right.. and DJ does have a clear edge in this.

    You're kidding yourself thinking this will work, and I humbly implore you to reconsider your stance. A Chase System in itself is fatalistic enough.. but playing a Chase System based on this is suicidal.... It was all good when you were playing it for fun.. but this is a challenge you can't win. Even if you believe you CAN win.. you can't honestly tell me this is a solid way to "Double Your Bankroll" ??

    Wish you all the best, as always, but please step back and re-think your stance.

    Cheers 
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    I won't post any formulas for you neilsy.. but I have to say I'm extremely disappointed in this.. I only take sides when I truly believe one side is right.. and DJ does have a clear edge in this.

    You're kidding yourself thinking this will work, and I humbly implore you to reconsider your stance. A Chase System in itself is fatalistic enough.. but playing a Chase System based on this is suicidal.... It was all good when you were playing it for fun.. but this is a challenge you can't win. Even if you believe you CAN win.. you can't honestly tell me this is a solid way to "Double Your Bankroll" ??

    Wish you all the best, as always, but please step back and re-think your stance.

    Cheers 
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 10:27 AM ET #5

    Thanks Kreatture..you kinda just illustrated my point as to why i am doing this, although its not aimed at you at all.i like you. Yes, i can honestly say this is a solid way to Double your bankroll..it is based solidly on a winning expectation, DJ tried to discredit it with his math (see his thread) and was dead wrong , this will go ahea...good luck to you in 2011 
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    Thanks Kreatture..you kinda just illustrated my point as to why i am doing this, although its not aimed at you at all.i like you. Yes, i can honestly say this is a solid way to Double your bankroll..it is based solidly on a winning expectation, DJ tried to discredit it with his math (see his thread) and was dead wrong , this will go ahea...good luck to you in 2011 
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 4:36 PM ET #6

    Here we go ...after further review, i have concluded that I gain no advantage by chasing 4 bet for 5% as opposed to 2 bets for 10% each...so 2 chases at 10% it is,

    Start Roll- $4,000

    Completed chase= 0

    Profit= 0

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 1-Sens/Pens ODD   $28 to win $12.73

  • Chase 2  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete
  • Level 1- Coyotes/Stars ODD   $28 to win 12.73

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    Here we go ...after further review, i have concluded that I gain no advantage by chasing 4 bet for 5% as opposed to 2 bets for 10% each...so 2 chases at 10% it is,

    Start Roll- $4,000

    Completed chase= 0

    Profit= 0

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 1-Sens/Pens ODD   $28 to win $12.73

  • Chase 2  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete
  • Level 1- Coyotes/Stars ODD   $28 to win 12.73

     
    jbkizzle
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 6:44 PM ET #7

    How are you determining which hockey games to be odd? Just intuition?
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    How are you determining which hockey games to be odd? Just intuition?
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2010 - 10:42 PM ET #8

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 1-Sens/Pens ODD   $28 to win $12.73

  • Chase 2  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Coyotes/Stars ODD   $28 to win 12.73

  • JBKizzle... generally i am looking for tight games..divisional games. and teams that play each other close //(like Sens and the Pens .)

    Dallas has been money at home for this, and is hitting at 100% or pretty cose to it ..so i take them every chance i get at home..

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    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 1-Sens/Pens ODD   $28 to win $12.73

  • Chase 2  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Coyotes/Stars ODD   $28 to win 12.73

  • JBKizzle... generally i am looking for tight games..divisional games. and teams that play each other close //(like Sens and the Pens .)

    Dallas has been money at home for this, and is hitting at 100% or pretty cose to it ..so i take them every chance i get at home..

     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2010 - 1:53 PM ET #9

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Bruins/Panthers ODD   $108 to win $49.09

    Panthers are 10-3 on ODD at home..hitting about 77%, Bruins worry me a bit though, as they have played 13 straight ODDS, hopefully 1 more here before math catches up.

     

  • Chase 2  roll $412.73 - 8 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Wild/Jackets ODD   $28.89 to win 13.13

  • both teams hitting ODDS at about a 70% clip, like this game cos the wild have 3 straight road evens ..i think only one other team this year has had 4 in a row on the road

  • Late game - tonite Kings/Sharks will be a play, amount depends on how early bets go.Sharks are one of this systems top performers with a 16-1 record of ODD at home..

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    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Bruins/Panthers ODD   $108 to win $49.09

    Panthers are 10-3 on ODD at home..hitting about 77%, Bruins worry me a bit though, as they have played 13 straight ODDS, hopefully 1 more here before math catches up.

     

  • Chase 2  roll $412.73 - 8 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Wild/Jackets ODD   $28.89 to win 13.13

  • both teams hitting ODDS at about a 70% clip, like this game cos the wild have 3 straight road evens ..i think only one other team this year has had 4 in a row on the road

  • Late game - tonite Kings/Sharks will be a play, amount depends on how early bets go.Sharks are one of this systems top performers with a 16-1 record of ODD at home..

  •  
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2010 - 1:59 PM ET #10

    oops..mistake in my bet size..level 2 play should have been $92..oh well..bets already in ..
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    oops..mistake in my bet size..level 2 play should have been $92..oh well..bets already in ..
     
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2010 - 10:11 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Bruins/Panthers ODD   $108 to win $49.09

    Panthers are 10-3 on ODD at home..hitting about 77%, Bruins worry me a bit though, as they have played 13 straight ODDS, hopefully 1 more here before math catches up.

     

  • Chase 2  roll $412.73 - 8 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Wild/Jackets ODD   $28.89 to win 13.13

  • both teams hitting ODDS at about a 70% clip, like this game cos the wild have 3 straight road evens ..i think only one other team this year has had 4 in a row on the road

  • Late game - tonite Kings/Sharks will be a play, amount depends on how early bets go.Sharks are one of this systems top performers with a 16-1 record of ODD at home..

  •  2 early winners !! ..will update stats later,..1 late play

    Chase 1 - Level 1 - Kings/Sharks ODD $29.81 to win $13.55

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

    • Chase 1  roll $400 - 9 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Bruins/Panthers ODD   $108 to win $49.09

    Panthers are 10-3 on ODD at home..hitting about 77%, Bruins worry me a bit though, as they have played 13 straight ODDS, hopefully 1 more here before math catches up.

     

  • Chase 2  roll $412.73 - 8 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Wild/Jackets ODD   $28.89 to win 13.13

  • both teams hitting ODDS at about a 70% clip, like this game cos the wild have 3 straight road evens ..i think only one other team this year has had 4 in a row on the road

  • Late game - tonite Kings/Sharks will be a play, amount depends on how early bets go.Sharks are one of this systems top performers with a 16-1 record of ODD at home..

  •  2 early winners !! ..will update stats later,..1 late play

    Chase 1 - Level 1 - Kings/Sharks ODD $29.81 to win $13.55

     

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2010 - 2:00 PM ET #12

    • Chase 1  roll $421.09 - 7 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Stars/Preds ODD   - $96.85 to win $44.02

    Preds are a perfect 16-0 on ODD at home this season and hitting ODDS at 92% over all (32-3) . Stars are 13-3 on ODD on the road and overall are hitting ODD at about 88%

     

  • Chase 2  roll $425.86 - 7 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Flyers/Canucks ODD   $29.81 to win 13.55

  • Flyers are a perfect 15-0 on ODD on the road and are hitting at 90% overall..Canucks are 12-5 at home on ODD
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    • Chase 1  roll $421.09 - 7 wins left to complete

     Level 2-Stars/Preds ODD   - $96.85 to win $44.02

    Preds are a perfect 16-0 on ODD at home this season and hitting ODDS at 92% over all (32-3) . Stars are 13-3 on ODD on the road and overall are hitting ODD at about 88%

     

  • Chase 2  roll $425.86 - 7 wins left to complete

    Level 1- Flyers/Canucks ODD   $29.81 to win 13.55

  • Flyers are a perfect 15-0 on ODD on the road and are hitting at 90% overall..Canucks are 12-5 at home on ODD
  •  
    kreatture
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2010 - 2:05 PM ET #13

    I like the fact you're including the stats with these picks neilsy. I find them quite surprising and am actually more interested in following along with this now.

    I would never bet along with it (you know, cuz it's fatalistic  HaHa), but it's fun to watch.

    The fact you're only searching for 9 wins in each Chase might make this doable.

    Keep up the work!

    Cheers 

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    I like the fact you're including the stats with these picks neilsy. I find them quite surprising and am actually more interested in following along with this now.

    I would never bet along with it (you know, cuz it's fatalistic  HaHa), but it's fun to watch.

    The fact you're only searching for 9 wins in each Chase might make this doable.

    Keep up the work!

    Cheers 

     
    dj_destroyer
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2010 - 2:24 PM ET #14

    I'd have to agree...

    I still maintain that chasing is the worst way to bet
     (so don't twist my words) but these plays are something of a gem which would explain why none of the 'main' books offer them. It would also suggest why you're having such an easy time chasing, because these plays are likely an edge every time. Then again, it could be best that you're chasing because no bookie is ever threatened by a chaser and thus won't pull these games even if you're turning a profit. If it were me, I'd crush these plays for big units while I could.
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    I'd have to agree...

    I still maintain that chasing is the worst way to bet
     (so don't twist my words) but these plays are something of a gem which would explain why none of the 'main' books offer them. It would also suggest why you're having such an easy time chasing, because these plays are likely an edge every time. Then again, it could be best that you're chasing because no bookie is ever threatened by a chaser and thus won't pull these games even if you're turning a profit. If it were me, I'd crush these plays for big units while I could.
     
    neilsy25
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    Posts: 818
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2010 - 12:10 PM ET #15

    what a night.. what...6 evens last night ?..while you guys were saying this cant win, it was doing fine,..soon as you say maybe it can i hit 2 losses  ...please go back to bashing me..

    anyway..

    Tonites games

    Chase 1 - Level 3 !! - Penguins -200  - $294.34 to win $147.14

    Chase 2- Level 2 - Red Wings/Stars - ODD $97.95 to win $44.52

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    what a night.. what...6 evens last night ?..while you guys were saying this cant win, it was doing fine,..soon as you say maybe it can i hit 2 losses  ...please go back to bashing me..

    anyway..

    Tonites games

    Chase 1 - Level 3 !! - Penguins -200  - $294.34 to win $147.14

    Chase 2- Level 2 - Red Wings/Stars - ODD $97.95 to win $44.52

     
    kreatture
    kreatture
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2009
    Posts: 2312
    Posted: Dec. 29, 2010 - 12:19 PM ET #16

    Neilsy you suck brother!! There's no way this can work!! Are you f'in insane?!!?

     

    Good Luck!! 

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    Neilsy you suck brother!! There's no way this can work!! Are you f'in insane?!!?

     

    Good Luck!! 

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 818
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2010 - 12:52 PM ET #17

    Not the start i was looking for ..losing my first chase and 10% of the roll. However, given the amount of Evens the past 2 days, i am hoping for a run of ODDS . undeterred we move on..

    Start Roll :  $4,000

    Current Roll:  $3600

    Profit to date  -$400

    Chase record 0-1

     With the anticipation of a few nights of ODDS, i am doubling up on chase 1 to recover the lost 10% and get this back on track..Chase till the bitter end baby !

    Chase 1 - start roll $800

    wins left 9 of 9

    Level 1 - Jackets/Leafs ODD  $56 to win $25.45

    Chase 2 - Level 3 ! Thrashers/Bruins ODD $272.24 to win 123.75

     

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    Not the start i was looking for ..losing my first chase and 10% of the roll. However, given the amount of Evens the past 2 days, i am hoping for a run of ODDS . undeterred we move on..

    Start Roll :  $4,000

    Current Roll:  $3600

    Profit to date  -$400

    Chase record 0-1

     With the anticipation of a few nights of ODDS, i am doubling up on chase 1 to recover the lost 10% and get this back on track..Chase till the bitter end baby !

    Chase 1 - start roll $800

    wins left 9 of 9

    Level 1 - Jackets/Leafs ODD  $56 to win $25.45

    Chase 2 - Level 3 ! Thrashers/Bruins ODD $272.24 to win 123.75

     

     
    alldayinvestor
    alldayinvestor
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2010
    Posts: 171
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2010 - 1:23 PM ET #18

    Why did you play a ML on Penguins?  That really defeats the purpose of all those percentages you figured out with the Odd system. 

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    Why did you play a ML on Penguins?  That really defeats the purpose of all those percentages you figured out with the Odd system. 

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
    Rookie
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    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 818
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2010 - 1:38 PM ET #19

    [Quote: Originally Posted by alldayinvestor]

    Why did you play a ML on Penguins?  That really defeats the purpose of all those percentages you figured out with the Odd system. 

    [/Qu

    couldn't agree more, although if you saw that game it was extremely unlucky not to win . Hit posts, missed empty nets, missed penalty shots, no points from Crosby..and finally losing in a shootout..it happens ..I am at work now, so dont have access to my spreadsheet with the ODDS stats, but will start including those..

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    [Quote: Originally Posted by alldayinvestor]

    Why did you play a ML on Penguins?  That really defeats the purpose of all those percentages you figured out with the Odd system. 

    [/Qu

    couldn't agree more, although if you saw that game it was extremely unlucky not to win . Hit posts, missed empty nets, missed penalty shots, no points from Crosby..and finally losing in a shootout..it happens ..I am at work now, so dont have access to my spreadsheet with the ODDS stats, but will start including those..

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 818
    Posted: Dec. 30, 2010 - 10:57 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

     

    $Chase 1 - start roll $800

    wins left 9 of 9

    Level 1 - Jackets/Leafs ODD  $56 to win $25.45

    Chase 2 - Level 3 ! Thrashers/Bruins ODD $272.24 to win 123.75

     

    nice to hit a level 3..no more plays till Sunday probably..Happy New Year...!

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    Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

     

    $Chase 1 - start roll $800

    wins left 9 of 9

    Level 1 - Jackets/Leafs ODD  $56 to win $25.45

    Chase 2 - Level 3 ! Thrashers/Bruins ODD $272.24 to win 123.75

     

    nice to hit a level 3..no more plays till Sunday probably..Happy New Year...!

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 818
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2011 - 7:23 AM ET #21

    Chase 1

    - start roll - $800

    current roll $825.45

    Wins left to double -8

    Level 1 - Yotes/Jackets  ODD  $57.78 to win $26.26

    Chase 2

    Start roll - $400

    Current Roll - $395.99

    Wins left to Double - 9

    Level 1- Lightning/Caps ODD  - $27.72 to win $12.60

     

               

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    Chase 1

    - start roll - $800

    current roll $825.45

    Wins left to double -8

    Level 1 - Yotes/Jackets  ODD  $57.78 to win $26.26

    Chase 2

    Start roll - $400

    Current Roll - $395.99

    Wins left to Double - 9

    Level 1- Lightning/Caps ODD  - $27.72 to win $12.60

     

               

     
     
    kreatture
    kreatture
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2009
    Posts: 2312
    Posted: Jan. 22, 2011 - 2:50 PM ET #22

    Neilsy, where you been man?? Hope everything is ok.

    If you're still around can you do a database search for me?

    I'm wondering how many number of NHL games end on EXACTLY 5 Total Goals. Say for the past 3 years. Thanks.

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    Neilsy, where you been man?? Hope everything is ok.

    If you're still around can you do a database search for me?

    I'm wondering how many number of NHL games end on EXACTLY 5 Total Goals. Say for the past 3 years. Thanks.

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