creating your own point spread

Question

Does anyone here create their own numbers (pointspreads)........for what sports and some advice on how to do it......any help would be appreciated.

Local-DJ · Answer

Does anyone here create their own numbers (pointspreads)........for what sports and some advice on how to do it......any help would be appreciated.

SecFan · Answer

i use the jeff sagarin ratings on usatoday google sagarin ratings and it will be the first one from there it should be easy to follow

Raidermex · Answer

Here is my formula. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;NBA Only&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Road Team ASM= PS-PA&#xD;&#xA;Home Team ASM=PS-PA&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Raw Line=Highest ASM-Lowest ASM&#xD;&#xA;Pad= Add or discount based on the matchups&#xD;&#xA;Estimated Point Spread= Raw Line &#x2B; Pad&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;i.e 03/09/08 Sac at LAL&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;SAC&#x27;s Road Scoring PS=98/game PA=105/game&#xD;&#xA;SAC&#x27;s Road ASM= -7/game&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;LAL&#x27;s Home Scoring PS=109/game PA=99/game&#xD;&#xA;LAL&#x27;s Home ASM=10/game&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Raw Line= 10--7=17&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Raw Line= LAL -17&#xD;&#xA;Pad= Discount by 2 &#xD;&#xA;Estimated Point Spread= LAL -15&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Vegas&#x27; Line= LAL -13

HeaVin-Cent · Answer

Raider, do you find your formula to be a pretty good indicator on what games you like to play? Most of your strategies are legit. Just trying to gain more knowledge...

thewheel78 · Answer

How do you decide how much to pad?

Raidermex · Answer

I pad based on matchups and public psychology. For example, LAL is hot team, so I might pad it a little extra like 1-2 points on the raw line. But, the raw line is -17. I couldn&#x27;t pad it to -19. I think this would cause an unbalanced amount of action on Sac. Most gamblers especially sharps would pounce on Sac, so I had discount it by 2 to LAL -15. Vegas discounted it even more by 4 points to LAL -13. I guess the 4 point discount would even their book. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;To be quite frank with you, I do not like point spread betting on NBA games. I prefer moneylines at good prices usually -250 or below. Cleveland is my favorite moneyline team right now. I have alot of success with them along with Utah at home if I can get a good price. I do not like betting NBA underdog moneylines unless I spot a no brainer lock and load deal. Trust me, Vegas isn&#x27;t stupid and they do not give the store away.

creating your own point spread

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