creating your own point spread

Does anyone here create their own numbers (pointspreads)........for what sports and some advice on how to do it......any help would be appreciated.

i use the jeff sagarin ratings on usatoday google sagarin ratings and it will be the first one from there it should be easy to follow

Here is my formula.

 

NBA Only

 

Road Team ASM= PS-PA

Home Team ASM=PS-PA

 

Raw Line=Highest ASM-Lowest ASM

Pad= Add or discount based on the matchups

Estimated Point Spread= Raw Line + Pad

 

i.e 03/09/08 Sac at LAL

 

SAC's Road Scoring PS=98/game PA=105/game

SAC's Road ASM= -7/game

 

LAL's Home Scoring PS=109/game PA=99/game

LAL's Home ASM=10/game

 

Raw Line= 10--7=17

 

Raw Line= LAL -17

Pad= Discount by 2

Estimated Point Spread= LAL -15

 

Vegas' Line= LAL -13

 

 

How do you decide how much to pad?

I pad based on matchups and public psychology. For example, LAL is hot team, so I might pad it a little extra like 1-2 points on the raw line. But, the raw line is -17. I couldn't pad it to -19. I think this would cause an unbalanced amount of action on Sac. Most gamblers especially sharps would pounce on Sac, so I had discount it by 2 to LAL -15. Vegas discounted it even more by 4 points to LAL -13. I guess the 4 point discount would even their book.

 

To be quite frank with you, I do not like point spread betting on NBA games. I prefer moneylines at good prices usually -250 or below. Cleveland is my favorite moneyline team right now. I have alot of success with them along with Utah at home if I can get a good price. I do not like betting NBA underdog moneylines unless I spot a no brainer lock and load deal. Trust me, Vegas isn't stupid and they do not give the store away.