College hoops system......give it a look

Week 5 starts today, two plays:

what about 576 lsu

James, LSU/Okie was a non- conference game, a no play for this system.

Good morning to all, 1-1 yesterday; ML players made a few bucks on NC St. with the straight up win.

Ken,  Is Arizona State a no play tonight? Or are we waiting to see which way the money leans?

Ken it shows public is on St John's with us...? About 58% is on St John's still should we take it ?

Sunday 1/31; one late play:

St Johns+20 covers another 'double-digit' WIN Vs. #6 Villanova (Big East)

 

the stats of this thread clearly indicate home double digit dogs are the premier plays, yesterday's St John's+20 WIN continues to trend in that direrction consistently throughout....

Alright, 1-2 yesterday, a less than spectacular 2-3 weekend. Back this afternoon with Monday action

Monday 2/01; one play:

nice hit

Alright, 1-0 last night, bringing us to 3-3 for the week. Good pop for the ML players as well, back later with Tuesday's action.......

Tuesday 2/02; three plays:

Chalk it up; 6-3 (4-0 LTD all ML ) congratulations to those playing the ML 'dogs' excellent read on TENN +330 & DePaul +315, exceptional value WINS

Appreciate the stats, can you post a YTD update? thanks 

Great night, 3-0 for the evening with all three pups cashing the ML as well; that brings us to 6-3 for the week. Hope everybody made a few bucks.......back later with Wednesday action.

S_N,  I have been working on separating the bets based on spread ranges. +.5 to +3, +3.5 to +5 and so on because I'd like to develop a better MM strategy than flat betting them all. I'm going to flat bet them through february, but it may be something to try next year as well. Here is the link to the google drive sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7zGI5Qz83cIZxtrEE9vp-0EYwoJ6MIX-glhHdu7yZQ/edit#gid=0

Note that I am tracking all games without regard to where the public money is, so there are games in my stats that ken has left out of the system.  Also, I use the lines when they close, so some of us have lost a game or 2 by a half point or a point, but the closing line was a winner, so I've used the closing line as a control. With this system one thing is clear, the later you wait to place the bet, generally the better line you get.

As far as pure stats from January 1,2016 to present is:

ATS:
Game: (50-33-1) 32 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (52-31-1) 30 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (45-37-2) 32 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (41-43)
1st Half: (42-42)
2nd Half: (44-38-2)

Spread is .5>3
ATS:
Game: (12-7-1) 12 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-9)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (10-9-1) 10 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (8-12)
1st Half: (9-11)
2nd Half: (11-9)

Spread is 3.5>5
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (8-6-4) 7 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-7)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (8-10)  8 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (11-7)
1st Half: (11-7)
2nd Half: (13-5)

Spread is 5.5>10
ATS:
Game: (20-12)  10 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (19-13)  7 ML wins and 3 push for dogs
2nd Half: (19-12-1) 11 ML and 1 push wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (17-15)
1st Half: (18-14)
2nd Half: (13-17-2)

Spread is 10.5>15

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (7-3) 3 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (8-1-1)  3 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (7-3)  3 ML wins and 1 pushfor dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (3-7)
1st Half: (2-8)
2nd Half: (5-5)

Spread is 15+
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (1-3)  0 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (2-2)
1st Half: (2-2)
2nd Half: (2-2)

Wednesday 2/03; two plays:

 Nebraska +6 / -110  WINNER

[Quote: Originally Posted by dawgtennis07]

S_N,  I have been working on separating the bets based on spread ranges. +.5 to +3, +3.5 to +5 and so on because I'd like to develop a better MM strategy than flat betting them all. I'm going to flat bet them through february, but it may be something to try next year as well. Here is the link to the google drive sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7zGI5Qz83cIZxtrEE9vp-0EYwoJ6MIX-glhHdu7yZQ/edit#gid=0

Note that I am tracking all games without regard to where the public money is, so there are games in my stats that ken has left out of the system.  Also, I use the lines when they close, so some of us have lost a game or 2 by a half point or a point, but the closing line was a winner, so I've used the closing line as a control. With this system one thing is clear, the later you wait to place the bet, generally the better line you get.

As far as pure stats from January 1,2016 to present is:

ATS:
Game: (50-33-1) 32 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (52-31-1) 30 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (45-37-2) 32 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (41-43)
1st Half: (42-42)
2nd Half: (44-38-2)

Spread is .5>3
ATS:
Game: (12-7-1) 12 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-9)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (10-9-1) 10 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (8-12)
1st Half: (9-11)
2nd Half: (11-9)

Spread is 3.5>5
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (8-6-4) 7 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (11-7)  10 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (8-10)  8 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (11-7)
1st Half: (11-7)
2nd Half: (13-5)

Spread is 5.5>10
ATS:
Game: (20-12)  10 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (19-13)  7 ML wins and 3 push for dogs
2nd Half: (19-12-1) 11 ML and 1 push wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (17-15)
1st Half: (18-14)
2nd Half: (13-17-2)

Spread is 10.5>15

ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (7-3) 3 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (8-1-1)  3 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (7-3)  3 ML wins and 1 push for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (3-7)
1st Half: (2-8)
2nd Half: (5-5)

Spread is 15+
ATS: (using where the lines closed for previous games)
Game: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
1st Half: (3-1)  0 ML wins for dogs
2nd Half: (1-3)  0 ML wins for dogs

Over-Under:
Game: (2-2)
1st Half: (2-2)
2nd Half: (2-2)
[/Quote] excellent work, and tracking technique, unsurpassed to say the least. I believe Ken is using the 'flat-betting' concept to simplify tracking WINS, based on the value of the thread. The link to the google-drive-sheet is all anyone really needs who is interested in the tracking this system, appreciate your effort immensely, recommended advice: to those consistently flat betting this system, you need to convert your MM technique to a 4 unit cover denomination attached to a 2 unit ML WIN denomination; equative to a 6 unit recovery formula... At 53-31 (63%) with 30 ML WINS; first half wagering should be given strong consideration as an additional daily play, although not connected to the system, the stats speak for themselves, and gives a solid read to 'home dog first half wagering when playing a top 25 AP conference team'...

first half stats a key element

kenkeane89, dawgtennis07, sports_Network