Cheak out some NBA Research....

Alright I got this idea from some of the Bowl Games angles in particular the one with big dogs. Play against teams favored by more than 8.5 and its even better if that favorite lost its last game straight up.....

 

So....I applied this to the NBA for this season....

 

I broke it down....

home and away

8-9 points

9-10 points

10-11 points

11 or more points

 

Here are the stats for a team that lost its last game straight up then was favored by this amount.....the results are all against the spread of course....  

 

home                   
-8    5-5                      
WWWWWLLLLL                    
                         
-9    7-4                   
WWWWWWWLLLLL                           
                         
-10   4-2                       
WWWWLL                          
                           
-11 or more     10-8              
WWWWWWWWWWLLLLLLLL                       
                          
road                 
-8      1-1                     
LW                     
                          
-9      1-0                    
W                      
                               
-10  -no games                   
                         
-11 or more   -no games             
                      

 

Here are the stats for a team that won its last game straight up then was an underdog by this amount.....the results are all against the spread of course.... 

 

home                28-22      
+8   01                       
L
                         
+9  -no games                         
+10 -no games   
+11 or more    -no games           
                       

road                  
+8      5-9             

WWWWLLLLLLLLL
                          
+9       2-4             

WWLLLL
                               
+10     1-4         

WLLLL
                           
+11 or more   2-10

WWLLLLLLLLLL

 

 

 

55-29 total.....pretty sick

 

 

Saturday, Dec. 29th

 

OKAY.....just did the NFL for the season

 

Home Faves 8-10

Raod Faves 1-2

 

Home Dogs 3-0

Road Dogs 4-12

 

 

hmmmmmmmmmmmm........makes me thing fading the road dogs is the way to go.....

28-22 in the NBA is not great butt has a small profit of +3.8 units...

 

 

I have a strange system which defies explanation.  I was tempted to take Washington today also, but I think there is some reverse line movement in that one.

 

I'm not someone who is obsessed with that RLM theory, but I think it has some merit, so I passed on that one.

 

good luck, I'll be watching this system closely.

very nice

2002 Totals for the NFL

 

Home Faves 4-10-1
Road Faves 0-1

Home Dogs 1-0
Road Dogs 2-8-1

It seems to be producing good results, keep up the good work

 

Happy 2008

not picks today

UGH....just ran the numbers for 06-07 in the NBA

 

here's some good reading by a stanford grad, it mainly deals with big nba favs

 

here's some good reading by a stanford grad, it mainly deals with big nba favs

 

 

 

 

Excellent read. Thanks for providing the link. Of course I tend to disagree with his conclusions as there are many other reasons why a team way ahead (as large favs figure to be) let up at the end of a game. The winning bench players don't have time to break a sweat which puts them at a big disadvantage compared to the losing starters who are in to the flow of the game. This seems to be a more likely reason for the results discovered then fixing of pointspreads IMHO.

the part that had me thinking was his theory that the "gamlbing public" compensated for other situations, and thus the lines shifted accordingly.  that being said, i think with basketball or baseball over a period of several years, it's quite possible to always find stats that lead to theories of this nature.  i'm not sold, especially with the infrequent nature that this guy has described.  not exactly a huge sample of games.

Another thing I think Prof Gibbs neglected to consider is that non top tier teams had almost as much trouble covering 8,9 or 10 point spreads on the road. This would lead me to the conclusion that it is not so much the exact pt-spread that is the main factor but the abilities of a given team to deal with adversities of playing on the road. Remember that a good number of years ago freshman were not allowed to participate in varsity ball. Since freshman eligibility's are now non restricted (due to greedy colleges who are more interested in making money then providing a decent education) you would expect teams to perform better at home then on the road as compared to years ago. Especially if that team were playing freshman point guards. This fact is borne out by statistical analysis as being true. All these factors mitigate against pt-spread shaving to be the reason for the results he obtained in his study.

Straight Up,  the team won the game, does not take any spread into acount.  a teams SU record is identical to their record in the standings.

yea im not sure about this i checked back into 2005 and it wasn't looking good....seems like a fluke