Thanks for the stats huskers!
Well, it seems evident that there will be ca 1 E-game loss for every 14 to 17 games (lets say exactly 1 out of 14 as huskers' stats showed). Even if the results showed 1 out of ca 19 for the first game chase it would probably even out to 1 in 14 in the long run, as the statistical analysis with the odds showed from huskers. THe second game chase probably has the same 1 in 14, even if the results showed a bit more (1 in 14 but also a C loss and a D loss, which couldve led to an E-loss).
So, with 1 out of 14 series ending with an E-loss in any case, it wont really matter how many series we start or play? As the E-loss could come in the 1st series or the 8th or the 18th. The more we play the more units we win if the odds are high enough give us that profit with all the A+B+C+D wins minus the E-losses. It basically stands if we can not find an edge that makes us lose the E-game less often than 1 out of 14.
So lets calculate this (correct me if this goes wrong, I havent calculated any chase stuff before):
- Chaser said that: "Chase even-to-plus money dogs in each series for the win. The first
three wagers are 1U, 2U, and 4U respectively. Any wagers beyond that are
"to win" the units lost plus 1."
- Huskers said that:
"The average line for playoff underdogs the past five seasons is
about +130. Basically, need a win rate of 43% to break even. For
simplicity, assume every game is +130 and the dogs actually win 43% of
the games. At that 43% win rate, you can expect
1 "E" game loss for every 17 chases on average. The actual win rate has
been 41% across the last five seasons, which would have 1 "E" game loss
for every 14 chases on average."
So, for simplicity I will just use this table from huskers to calculate how much we would win and lose if the system would go 1 out of 14 E-losses with average odds of +130 with the chase style of chaser:
First Game Chase
Game Win Loss
A 28 47 = 28 units x +130 = 36,4 units won, 47 (47x1) units lost = loss of -9,6 units in 5 years.
B 22 25 = 44 (22x2) units x +130 = 57,2 units won, 50 (25x2) units lost = profit of 7,2 units in 5 years.
C 13 12 = 52 (13x4) units x +130 = 67,6 units won, 48 (12x4) units lost = profit of 19,6 units in 5 years.
D 6 6 = 36,9(6x6,15 (which is to gain losses + 1 unit = 8)) x +130 = 47,9 units won, 36,9 (6x6,15) units lost = profit of 11 units in 5 years.
E 2 4 = 20,4(2x10,2 (to gain losses + 1 unit) x +130 = 26,5 units won, 40,8 (4x10,2) units lost = loss of -14,3 units in 5 years.
Total in 5 years:
A-games: loss of -9,6 units
B-games: profit of 7,2 units
C-games: profit of 19,6 units
D-games: profit of 11 units
E-games: loss of -14,3 units
Total: +13,9 units in 5 years.
And that was with E-game losses of 1 out of ca 19 series.
Could someone calculate what the "normal" results unitswise would be if the wins and losses would be divided according to what the odds would have them, and if there would be 1 in 14 E-losses as the stats show?
Lets calculate chaser's last year with the current chase units of 1, 2, 4, to win losses and 1, to win losses and 1, and also using the 1 and done style:
First Game Chase
Game Win Loss
A 5 10 = 6,5 units won, 10 lost = loss of -3,5 units.
B 4 6 = 10,4 units won, 12 units lost = loss of -1,6 units.
C 2 4 = 10,4 units won, 16 units lost = loss of -5,6 units.
D 4 0 = 32 units won = profit of 32 units.
E 0 0
Total: proft of +21,3 units.
So what does this all mean? Last season was a phenomenal year for sure. 2011 and 2014 would have been good too.
But overall ca +2,8 units per year. I dont have time to calculate the ROI but I dont know, that feels rather small..of course its not that much work either, money is always money, but.. What do you guys think?
DISCLAIMER: I have never calculated chase stuff before and I sometimes think things all wrong and hence get the numbers mixed up. These numbers could be wrong. Someone please double check them.
You playin it Dan?
Hot Forum Topics
