Chase systems

I know a lot of people here follow chase systems, and a lot of people here say they will do nothing but kill you. I was just hoping to get some solid opinions on this.

Let's look at the ATS record for the NBA this year. New York is winning ATS 64.6%, Philly at 64%, Memphis at 62%, San Antonio at 63%, and a few more at winning percentages. And of course this is the same way for losing ATS with Washington at 64% and Cleveland at 62%.

So, if you were to bet on the 4 winning teams above all year you would currently be up 46.7 units if you bet to win 1 unit. And you would be up 22.3 units if you bet against the two losing teams. Now we didn't know these teams were going to have these ATS results at the beginning of the season. But, I want to know your opinions on if we can take advantage of it at this point of the year.

Now, I can't guarantee that these teams will keep there winning or losing ways ATS, so that's where the chase comes in. Obviously you could play it with any team or group of teams, I just thought this set would be the best due to their track record this season.

Now I would say you would have to end the chase probably at least 5-10 games before the end of the season, depending on where you are at in the chase. Other than that I don't see how it could lose, but I often think such things only to have someone else tell me their view on it, and make me realize the problem that I can't see.

So, please let me know what you think, but please don't just say chasing will eventually kill you. Thanks in advance for everyone's insight.

Most definitely not a good idea imo.

I do think, however, that one could take a close look at those teams you mentioned with the larger than average disparities (NHL as well) and weed out the teams with the streaky ATS records. And one could then assume those left with the more consistent ATS records of 60% and above should yield a profit if trends continue and if you flat-bet. But nothing's for sure. Except for the fact that if you were chasing, you would have a higher percentage of losing your investment completely. Imo.

GL

I guess my problem with this is that I just wasn't really thinking how much you have to invest into a chase system. I still think you can win on a chase system with the right "system", but I do see now that it is too much risk. I never really looked at them much, but when I stopped and ran the numbers involved in this, it is clear how out of control these numbers can get.

If I bet just $5/unit, at bet 7 I would have lost $423.95, and have to bet another $471.85 just to win a measly 5 dollar bill!!!! There is no way it makes sense to risk $900 to win $5.

Now, just for the hell of it, I'm gonna keep an eye on how the 6 teams mentioned above will fair in the chase I was thinking about.

Rules:
1. No bet if two "winners" play each other, or two "losers" play each other.
2. If a "winner" plays a "loser", play as normal, making  two bets on the "winner", if bets are lost, continue chase as normal.
3. No chase may start with less than 15 games left for that team.

I'll probably only update this occasionally, and not daily as I'm only doing it out of curiosity and the rules are clearly stated.

Again, thanks for your thoughts on this jonny.

I agree the numbers can get high quickly no doubt about it but in your example above you can't forget about the  $423.95 you would have recovered on top of the $5 you made.  You can't really look at it as just winning $5.

A solid system and a generous bankroll is key for this type of money management and of course there are no guarantees.

I guess that's another way of looking at it, and in a way more comparable to any other sports bettor. Most of the money you win is going to pay back the money you lose.

I also think I like the chase systems better the way I seen someone else put it where instead of making 1 unit per chase, you increase your bet extra to win an extra unit for each loss you suffer. It would sure make it nicer if you had to go to seven games, and you win 7 units instead of just 1, but then of course your investment will be way higher using that method.

I definitely agree that a chase needs a generous bankroll. With doing the chase I'm going to follow, I would want to have at least $5k, and that's with $5 bets, but chasing 6 teams as well. And I would surely feel much better with $10k in case all 6 teams went on a stretch of losing for me.

And as far as this "system" goes, you're right there is no guarantee, but I would bet my entire bankroll that you could chase all six of these teams to at least one win before the end of the season to win a whole 6 units! lol

10th- No games

11th - LAC @ cle - Lost bet -1.1 unit
         mil @ MEM - LOST BET -1.1 unit
         lal @ NYK - LOST BET -1.1 unit
(-3.3 units)

12th - NYK @ njn - Win 2.1 unit/risk 2.31
         SAS @ was - Win 2 unit (bet on winner and against loser) risk 2.2
         PHI @ min - Win 1 unit/risk 1.1
(+1.8 units)(risked 8.91)

13th - den @ MEM - Win 2.1 unit/risk 2.31
(+3.9 units)(risked 11.22)

14th - SAS @ njn - Win 1 unit/risk 1.1
(+4.9 units)(risked 12.32)

15th - No bets
(+4.9 units)(risked 12.32)

So after 6 days and 8 games we bet a total of 12.32 units and are up 4.9 units. Not a bad start!

Just thought I would update while I was looking ahead to the rest of the applicable games for this chase.

16th - was @ ORL Win 1 unit/risk 1.1
         atl @ NYK Win 1 unit/risk 1.1
         LAL @ cle LOST BET -2.31 units
         PHI @ hou Win 1 unit/risk 1.1
(+5.59 units)(risked 17.93)

17th - SAS @ chi LOST BET 1.1 units
(+4.49 units)(risked 19.03)

So, as we went into the all star break, we sit at 8 days and 13 games with a profit of 4.49 units from risking 19.03. So far that seems like a good deal to me. On the down side, Cleveland is sitting at round 3. Hopefully we will win the first game back when they play vs Houston. Best of luck to everyone!

i run a chase system...right now iam 83-0....if you have the right rules in place..and you MANAGE YOUR  MONEY WELL!!!!! (cant stress this enough) you can make bank off it...however its a slow progression..for instance right now iam running a 5 game chase...2.4% of my total roll...which is my base line...so if you start with 100 bucks...your first line to clear is $2.40....however i dont advise you run a 5 game chase unless your an experience handicapper...6 or 7 games seem to be a safe and much more reasonable cushion of space to work with...and watch your juice!!!! if your chase is calculated to run at standard -110 lines...you cant buy hooks at -120 this will destroy your line if you happen to run a deep chase.....and one more thing....only one pick a day..this ensures you have your best pick forward every day giving you a higher percentage to hit...and dont just focus on matching up losing teams with winning teams...just focus on the winning teams..you will find much more value and smaller spreads to over come...just think of all the +10point and up spreads you would of had to over come if you faded the cavs this yr lol

also mix it up a little...dont ride the same team every game thinkin they will hit...its not hard for even the most profiting team to go on a 6 game ATS skid...otherwise you might as well blow your money on the stupid morrison chump system  lol

I think I get what your saying papa. I'm not actually betting this, just tracking for the hell of it. When you say you baseline for your chase is 2.4% of your roll, do you mean your first bet is 2.4%, and you escalate your bet accordingly to win 2.4% or what? I'm pretty new to sports betting outside of football with my local book, so I'm very eager to learn some of the ins and outs from the experienced cappers. Thanks for your insight!

yes correct! your starting line is worth 2.4% of your total roll

example
roll-$100.00

your first chase is for $2.40 ...and would increase from there. that will get you 5 games before you would bust out of that 100 bucks with a few bucks left over...but if you run a 1% Chase, that will get you 6 games

...dont forget only standard lines (-110) or better...otherwise your numbers will get thrown off and you'll bust ouf of your chase earlier...however if you did want to get a little creative you could make a play on a line valued at -105...lose then follow it up with a line valued at -115..only cuz you offset the difference in the line..so if you lost both it would be like losing two bets valued at -110

Only somewhat kept up with this, but just thought I would put an almost final tally on it. There is still one chase running.

New York - 5-9 (currently on level 7 of a chase, which would be a 94.37 unit bet, and would have killed most bankrolls already) Also reached levels 2 and 3

Philadelphia - 7-5 Reached as high as the 3rd level twice, 2nd level twice

Memphis - 5-3 Only reached a level 2 bet three times

San Antonio - 4-6 Reached level 4 twice, and 2 once

Washington - 10-3 Reached level 3 and 2 each one time (finished the chase out on a 6 win run!

Cleveland - 6-5 Reached level 6 once and 2 twice

Cleveland reached a Level 6 bet on the chase early on which would have been a 45 unit bet, this could have possibly killed many bankrolls there, but if not it would surely be done right now with New York.

The only real bright spot in this was Washington. Before the All-Star break the record was 9-5, after the break it went 37-31, for a total of 46-36 (56.1%). Not too terrible, definitely showed a profit margin if betting every game straight up instead of chasing as suggested early in the thread by jonnymega.

Now here is where I could make the excuse for New York doing so poorly ATS and hurting this system. The trade the Knicks made at the All-Star break was such a major change for their team, the spreads were surely changed because of them, so one could argue that the Knicks should have been removed from this chase anyway.

But, irregardless of the fact, I would have to say that I definitely agree with papagunnz, don't chase one team. I will say that I will follow this again next year though as single bets and not a chase.

Thanks for your advice guys, you possibly saved my bankroll, as I was very tempted to do this chase when I first posted.