NOTE: I originally posted t his Posted: 1/7/2010 11:56:35 AM, but did not get many helpful responses-clearly these are not the odds anymore but still read on...
Original bet: Jets vs. Cardinals is the superbowl matchup (+20000)
bet: 100 to win 20,000
After making this bet, if you hedge every game the jets and cardinals play by betting moneyline on their opponents, is it mathematically possible to bet and create the scenario where you are guaranteed a profit.
I am not great with math but I believe that the possible playoff outcomes are 4! (4*3*2*1) = 24 possible scenarios. If I had the time and the mathematical capability to figure out how much you win or lose in every situation, can you adjust your bets to not only make money if either team loses in any round, but also keep your hedging risk under the 20,000 so that in the case the superbowl is Jets vs Cardinals, the amount you have risked in hedges is less than 20,000.
I don't think I am the first person to think of this- but if anyone knows the possible flaws of this system or if this system has already been thought of and has a name I'd like to know. After making a decision tree and playing out some of the scenarios, I've discovered the major flaw to the system is if one of the teams makes the superbowl while the other loses in the Conf. finals. Also, if both teams make it to the Conf, finals, you'll have to hedge a shitload especially if jets and/or cardinals are large underdogs (which is possible, but unlikely to be more than +200).
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
NOTE: I originally posted t his Posted: 1/7/2010 11:56:35 AM, but did not get many helpful responses-clearly these are not the odds anymore but still read on...
Original bet: Jets vs. Cardinals is the superbowl matchup (+20000)
bet: 100 to win 20,000
After making this bet, if you hedge every game the jets and cardinals play by betting moneyline on their opponents, is it mathematically possible to bet and create the scenario where you are guaranteed a profit.
I am not great with math but I believe that the possible playoff outcomes are 4! (4*3*2*1) = 24 possible scenarios. If I had the time and the mathematical capability to figure out how much you win or lose in every situation, can you adjust your bets to not only make money if either team loses in any round, but also keep your hedging risk under the 20,000 so that in the case the superbowl is Jets vs Cardinals, the amount you have risked in hedges is less than 20,000.
I don't think I am the first person to think of this- but if anyone knows the possible flaws of this system or if this system has already been thought of and has a name I'd like to know. After making a decision tree and playing out some of the scenarios, I've discovered the major flaw to the system is if one of the teams makes the superbowl while the other loses in the Conf. finals. Also, if both teams make it to the Conf, finals, you'll have to hedge a shitload especially if jets and/or cardinals are large underdogs (which is possible, but unlikely to be more than +200).
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