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Posted this in NFL Betting section, but I thought it was more applicable to Systems & Strategies.
I heard about someone doing this for college football and how there was value betting huge favorites, but very few people were willing to bet $1200+ to win $100. Thought I would do the same for the NFL. Here are the findings (betting $100 for underdogs, betting 'x' to win $100 for favorites): Home Favorites = -$10,900 Home Underdogs = -$345 Away Favorites = -$6,055 Away Underdogs = -$2,560 The only profitable blind bets were: Home Underdogs (weeks 1-4) = $1,725 Home Underdogs (weeks 5-8) = $1,010 Home Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $665 Away Favorites (weeks 9-12) = $2,530 Away Underdogs (weeks 13-16) = $2,080 The only profitable blind bets based on spread (still playing ML though) were: Home Favorites between -7.5 and -11 went 167-26 for a profit of $4,420. Home favorites -15.5 and greater went 19-0 for a profit of $1900 (however, too much risk in my opinion as 2 losses could destroy your bankroll). Away dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 went 210-276 for a profit of $7,420. Home underdogs between +7 and +10 went 28-52 for a profit of $3,235. All raw data was obtained through footballlocks.com It took a long time to tabulate this stuff, but I enjoy doing so. I'm not perfect, so some human error is to be expected, but if I can help anyone be successful, then hopefully karma comes my way. Cheers | |
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