Posted:
#1
We've all heard the familar baseball maxim that even the worst teams in MLB win at least 60 games per year. Unless of course if you are the 1962 Mets or 2003 Tigers who won only 40 and 43 games respectively. In any event, historically poor teams always seem to manage at least 60 or more on average. Looking at the following teams in 2008 as of 7/24, bad teams this season each have this many wins (games remaining in parenthesis):
Washington 38 (60)
Seattle 38 (59)
San Diego 38 (59)
San Francisco 43 (61)
Kansas City 46 (59)
Pittsburgh 48 (60)
Cinncinati 50 (59)
The above listed teams since 2003 have finished with this many wins (2007 listed last):
Washington 83, 67, 81, 71, 73
Seattle 93, 63, 69, 78, 88
San Diego 64, 87, 82, 88, 89
San Francisco 100, 91, 75, 76, 71
Kansas City 83, 58, 56, 62, 69
Pittsburgh 75, 72, 67, 67, 68
Cinncinati 69, 76, 73, 80, 72
Only KC has finished with under 60 wins in any of the last 5-seasons.
The question then is do these teams represent value for the balance of the season due to a targeted number of wins expected? These teams are going to be underdogs a majority (not always beacuse of the pitching ace of the team Volquez, Hernandez, Lincicum, etc ) of the time in any contest. Below is the expected number of wins (2 examples high & low) I think the teams will finish with by the end of the season (# of wins/losses and win % in parenthesis) and over the balance of their schedule:
Washington: Low 60 (22-38 .366%); High 65 (27-33 .450%)
Seattle: Low 65 (27-32 .457%); High 70 (32-27 .542%)
San Diego: Low 65 (27-32 .457%); High 70 (32-27 .542%)
San Francisco: Low 70 (27-34 .442%); High 75 (32-39 .508%)
Kansas City: Low 70 (24-35 .406%; High 75 (29-30 .491%)
Pittsburgh: Low 75 (27-33 .450%); High 80 (32-28 .533%)
Cinncinati: Low 75 (25-34 .423%); High 80 (30-29 .508%)
Washington is very bad this season, but even if you bet them at +money for the rest of the season, you are going to collect 27 times. However, this collection of bums may not breach the 55 win threshold. Seattle is having a dissapointing season and they have better talent than their record indicates, so I think they will win at least 30-games for the rest of the season. KC, Pittsburgh and Cinncinati represent good value for the rest of the season based on how I believe they will finish down the stretch.
This idea is less about handicapping individual games and more about betting the averages based on mathematical probability. The point is, if these teams hit their season win average or higher, you should cashing tickets on them at least half the time at +money odds.
I'd be interested in hearing from anybody pro, con or if this sheer lunacy.
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