Best Lines To Bet

SEVEN LINES TO BET Over the last 7 NFL seasons several interesting trends have emerged when it comes to beating the spread…. The following are seven lines the bookies just cannot get right!! 1. Home team covers 84.2% of the time when they are underdogs by 7.5 points 2. Visitors cover 73.7% when favored by 5 points 3. Visitors cover 72.7% when underdogs by 10 points 4. Visitors cover 68.5% when underdogs by 7 points 5. Visitors cover 66.7% when favored by 4.5 points 6. Home team covers two thirds of the time when favored by 1 point, and 7. Visitors cover 61.8% when underdogs by 5 points Good Luck

Line Vis Home Percentage 7.5 3 16 84.2% 5 14 5 73.7% -10 24 9 72.7% -7 50 23 68.5% 4.5 14 7 66.7% -1 18 36 66.7% -5 42 26 61.8%

Sorry, that was supposed to be a table: Line:Vis:Home:Percentage 7.5: [3 - 16 = 84.2%] 5.0: [14- 5 = 73.7%] -10: [24- 9 = 72.7%] -7 : [50- 23 = 68.5%] 4.5: [14- 7 = 66.7%] -1 : [18- 36 = 66.7%] -5 : [42- 26 = 61.8%]

Interesting, but I dont see it. I took a look at about 10 weeks inclding thi year and it about 500 system.

Sorry, dont know how the -10 got there...should be -9.5..... My results are from 2000 till 2006 Here is sample of - 9.5!!!! NewOrleans - 13 - 10 - OAKLAND = -9.5 Carolina - 19 - 27 - SANFRANCISCO = -9.5 NewOrleans - 16 - 13 - CAROLINA = -9.5 Detroit - 19 - 38 - GREENBAY = -9.5 Indianapolis - 14 - 27 - MIAMI = -9.5 Seattle - 21 - 28 - DENVER = -9.5 Detroit - 28 - 20 - SEATTLE = -9.5 Tennessee - 20 - 19 - JACKSONVILLE = -9.5 Philadelphia - 15 - 16 - NYGIANTS = -9.5 Cleveland - 21 - 16 - NEWORLEANS = -9.5 SanDiego - 19 - 16 - SEATTLE = -9.5 SanDiego - 37 - 38 - DENVER = -9.5 Carolina - 17 - 31 - MINNESOTA = -9.5 Washington - 0 - 37 - GREENBAY = -9.5 Carolina - 6 - 23 - MIAMI = -9.5 TampaBay - 24 - 17 - STLOUIS = -9.5 NewEngland - 24 - 17 - PITTSBURGH = -9.5 KansasCity - 38 - 41 - NEWENGLAND = -9.5 Indianapolis - 35 - 13 - PHILADELPHIA = -9.5 Chicago - 20 - 30 - GREENBAY = -9.5 Minnesota - 22 - 26 - GREENBAY = -9.5 Seattle - 30 - 24 - ATLANTA = -9.5 Carolina - 12 - 9 - TAMPABAY = -9.5 Cleveland - 20 - 41 - KANSASCITY = -9.5 Arizona - 14 - 50 - SANFRANCISCO = -9.5 NewOrleans - 21 - 24 - ATLANTA = -9.5 Detroit - 13 - 16 - GREENBAY = -9.5 Pittsburgh - 29 - 24 - BUFFALO = -9.5 Cleveland - 22 - 14 - HOUSTON = -9.5 Denver - 24 - 49 - INDIANAPOLIS = -9.5 Minnesota - 24 - 21 - NYGIANTS = -9.5 SanFrancisco - 24 - 20 - STLOUIS = -9.5 Pittsburgh - 21 - 18 - INDIANAPOLIS = -9.5

you have to keep in mind that those "trends" are only accurate to the source you got them from. those trends could VASTLY differ from Vegas, to off shore, and to local guys (who can sometimes differ several points across the street). Im not saying that those trends are not useful, but be careful when using trends such as those. everything evens out over the long term, and eventually dips back toward the man just based on vig alone, nevermind the ups and downs that a team may have. trends can be very important, but they become dangerous when that is all you look at when picking a side. ||an_lightening.gif' border=0>

Cincy, Of course you are correct in your statements... However, the above teams would have been 24-9 if the line was -9.5 anywhere.... It would be prudent to take scores and lines from several places and do this type of analysis to see if it holds up..... Also, I don't believe you can classify the above as trends...(cause I hate trends), rather as peculiar occurences. For example, bookies set the line at -9.5 because they want you to believe that the cover will be easy, that a win by 10 points is very attainable......IT'S NOT (24-9).. When the line is +10 (Vs favored) the record is 5-4 and when it's -10 (Hm favored) the record is 20-21..... + 9.5 is 3-8 (Home team covers 8 out of 11 times) Any thoughts, and thanks for your input!!

hey RP..i don't understand the line and home percentage chart? who do you play? do you spreads have to be exactly +7.5, -5, +10..etc.

Are these game time lines, opening lines, or what?

You can find all the information here....before it gets banned..... edited ...and, as for getting banned, I could care less...

Thanks! I've been looking for this! How is it doing this year? How about over/unders?

rp-xl are those lines based on opening lines or closing lines?

rp-xl thanks for the great info you've helped me out alot to beat those bookies thank you for your continued posts