WH, I wasn't complaining or blaming you for the losses. Just pointing out how bad these teams played this weekend.
GL this week.
I know you were not complaining......no problem.....just wanted to reiterate for those that did not start from the beginning of the thread that there are going to be losses.......GL
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Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:
WH, I wasn't complaining or blaming you for the losses. Just pointing out how bad these teams played this weekend.
GL this week.
I know you were not complaining......no problem.....just wanted to reiterate for those that did not start from the beginning of the thread that there are going to be losses.......GL
I did not say play the Dodgers....yes, they fit the numbers, but not laying odds they were laying.....yes, Baltimore sucks, but if they fall as a play I will play them again as I am supposed to....I spent 3 years refining my calculations....... I am going to lose some series, every chase system does, but with mine you will not go lose 15 or 20 units with a loss....the objective is to turn enough profit by the end of the season to warrant my time and effort.....baseball is a marathon....its about making small gains that add up to a big profit by the end..any series I post can lose, there are no locks....fade or follow ......GL
Well said, WH.
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Quote Originally Posted by WaterHammer:
I did not say play the Dodgers....yes, they fit the numbers, but not laying odds they were laying.....yes, Baltimore sucks, but if they fall as a play I will play them again as I am supposed to....I spent 3 years refining my calculations....... I am going to lose some series, every chase system does, but with mine you will not go lose 15 or 20 units with a loss....the objective is to turn enough profit by the end of the season to warrant my time and effort.....baseball is a marathon....its about making small gains that add up to a big profit by the end..any series I post can lose, there are no locks....fade or follow ......GL
I will start posting the road teams as well thats not a problem. I will separate the totals for home and road teams. The only problem with doing that is I will have to put a disclaimer with it saying play at your own risk. When someone comes to the site for the first time and looks at the plays I want them to know I am not playing road teams. I love road teams because of the value you get, but I dont want to drop 7 units getting greedy chasing $2 dogs......thanks for the words....any more questions let me know.......I am getting ready to post and try to explain why my systems works
Was looking yesterday (Monday) for the road team info based on your chase system . . . would also enjoy reading your view of why your system works.
As always, I think many of us look forward to your posts.
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Quote Originally Posted by WaterHammer:
I will start posting the road teams as well thats not a problem. I will separate the totals for home and road teams. The only problem with doing that is I will have to put a disclaimer with it saying play at your own risk. When someone comes to the site for the first time and looks at the plays I want them to know I am not playing road teams. I love road teams because of the value you get, but I dont want to drop 7 units getting greedy chasing $2 dogs......thanks for the words....any more questions let me know.......I am getting ready to post and try to explain why my systems works
Was looking yesterday (Monday) for the road team info based on your chase system . . . would also enjoy reading your view of why your system works.
As always, I think many of us look forward to your posts.
Was looking yesterday (Monday) for the road team info based on your chase system . . . would also enjoy reading your view of why your system works.
As always, I think many of us look forward to your posts.
I will have to go back to get the numbers for the road teams....I have not kept it separated......I do not think it is profitable, but if you want it I can try to put it together....of my 6 series losses 4 have came from road teams this year......baseball teams win more at home than they do on the road of course....for me the numbers I am using just do not produce enough winners on the road to offset the losses...be back later tonight with some info on why I think my system works......not enough time at the moment....later
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Quote Originally Posted by CALIFORNIA1:
Was looking yesterday (Monday) for the road team info based on your chase system . . . would also enjoy reading your view of why your system works.
As always, I think many of us look forward to your posts.
I will have to go back to get the numbers for the road teams....I have not kept it separated......I do not think it is profitable, but if you want it I can try to put it together....of my 6 series losses 4 have came from road teams this year......baseball teams win more at home than they do on the road of course....for me the numbers I am using just do not produce enough winners on the road to offset the losses...be back later tonight with some info on why I think my system works......not enough time at the moment....later
A little bit about my system..... Baseball teams play up and down....they have good runs and bad runs. My plays are based on 2 formulas that I have wrenched on for 3 years. The first set of numbers is based on their last 4 opponents and how well they did against those opponents. The second set of numbers is based on the last 10 games. It shows me
how a team is playing. The first number gives me a baseline to work of off. For example the Yankees baseline will always be higher than the Orioles baseline. I compare the first number to the second number to see if a team is has played better over the last ten games than would be expected.
For example, the Angels are currently playing the Brewers....the Angels baseline number going into the series was 62(this number comes from the first formula), but over the last ten games they have played like a time with a win percentage of 80(this number comes from the second formula)......this tells me the Angels have played 18 percentage points higher than they should be.....there will be a correction just like when a stock is overvalued or to high ...the Angels are 18 points higher than they should be....look for a correction going into the Brewers series.
The Brewers in contrast......their baseline number going into the series is 47, but over the last ten games they have played like a 33 based on the second formula....the 33 will correct itself just like a stock that is to low........
What I look for is home teams that are under performing (based on my calculations) vs road teams that have over performed (based on my calculations).....its just like your taking an under valued stock against an over valued stock
The Angels are playing over their head and the Brewers have not met expectations of late...if the Brewers would have been the home team in this series they would have been a play......
Big home favorites come in as under valued teams, but I dont play them. I stick with the small favs or dogs because if the correction does not occur in the three game series you may lose, but for a team that is already playing well below their level of expectation, to lose 3 more games at home would drive their numbers of the chart low........any thoughts let me know.......GL
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A little bit about my system..... Baseball teams play up and down....they have good runs and bad runs. My plays are based on 2 formulas that I have wrenched on for 3 years. The first set of numbers is based on their last 4 opponents and how well they did against those opponents. The second set of numbers is based on the last 10 games. It shows me
how a team is playing. The first number gives me a baseline to work of off. For example the Yankees baseline will always be higher than the Orioles baseline. I compare the first number to the second number to see if a team is has played better over the last ten games than would be expected.
For example, the Angels are currently playing the Brewers....the Angels baseline number going into the series was 62(this number comes from the first formula), but over the last ten games they have played like a time with a win percentage of 80(this number comes from the second formula)......this tells me the Angels have played 18 percentage points higher than they should be.....there will be a correction just like when a stock is overvalued or to high ...the Angels are 18 points higher than they should be....look for a correction going into the Brewers series.
The Brewers in contrast......their baseline number going into the series is 47, but over the last ten games they have played like a 33 based on the second formula....the 33 will correct itself just like a stock that is to low........
What I look for is home teams that are under performing (based on my calculations) vs road teams that have over performed (based on my calculations).....its just like your taking an under valued stock against an over valued stock
The Angels are playing over their head and the Brewers have not met expectations of late...if the Brewers would have been the home team in this series they would have been a play......
Big home favorites come in as under valued teams, but I dont play them. I stick with the small favs or dogs because if the correction does not occur in the three game series you may lose, but for a team that is already playing well below their level of expectation, to lose 3 more games at home would drive their numbers of the chart low........any thoughts let me know.......GL
I went back through all my numbers and I think I found a way to play some big dogs.....
Take road teams vs home teams that are over valued by at least 20...does not produce alot of plays, but so far this season here are the results.....
Our team vs Opponent Game we won Result for the Series Clev at Minn +22 3 +4.2 units Tor at TB +27 1 +2.0 units Stl at SF +25 3 + 1 unit Phil at SF +27 3 +2.2 units KC at TB +32 2 +3 units Cin at STL +24 1 +1 unit Col at SD +26 1 +1 unit Sea at TB +24 1 +1.6 units LAA at SD +26 1 +1.1 units Tex at KC +20 1 +1 unit Oak at Bost +22 3 +1.1units Fla at NYM +23 Lost -7 units 11-1 Profit +12.2 units
The pluses beside the opponent show how far I have them overvalued.
Series currently in progress with teams overvalued of 20 or more.
Cleveland +22 vs NY Mets.........NYM winner game 1 +1unit Boston +28 vs Arizona..........Arizona pending
I am going to watch Arizona tonight and if the lose tonight play them tomorrow in game 3......somewhat hesitant due to interleague,...but willing to take a shot in game 3 if their down 0-2 in the series.
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I went back through all my numbers and I think I found a way to play some big dogs.....
Take road teams vs home teams that are over valued by at least 20...does not produce alot of plays, but so far this season here are the results.....
Our team vs Opponent Game we won Result for the Series Clev at Minn +22 3 +4.2 units Tor at TB +27 1 +2.0 units Stl at SF +25 3 + 1 unit Phil at SF +27 3 +2.2 units KC at TB +32 2 +3 units Cin at STL +24 1 +1 unit Col at SD +26 1 +1 unit Sea at TB +24 1 +1.6 units LAA at SD +26 1 +1.1 units Tex at KC +20 1 +1 unit Oak at Bost +22 3 +1.1units Fla at NYM +23 Lost -7 units 11-1 Profit +12.2 units
The pluses beside the opponent show how far I have them overvalued.
Series currently in progress with teams overvalued of 20 or more.
Cleveland +22 vs NY Mets.........NYM winner game 1 +1unit Boston +28 vs Arizona..........Arizona pending
I am going to watch Arizona tonight and if the lose tonight play them tomorrow in game 3......somewhat hesitant due to interleague,...but willing to take a shot in game 3 if their down 0-2 in the series.
I might be wrong but wouldn't arizona be a 2unit play ? after losing wed.play
It would be if you played them.........in post # 137 I said I was going to watch game 2 due to this being interleague and pick them up in game 3 ....if you played game 2 and lost then yes it would be a 2 unit play........GL
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Quote Originally Posted by jkp714:
I might be wrong but wouldn't arizona be a 2unit play ? after losing wed.play
It would be if you played them.........in post # 137 I said I was going to watch game 2 due to this being interleague and pick them up in game 3 ....if you played game 2 and lost then yes it would be a 2 unit play........GL
Tuff night. What if you excluded the bottom 2 or 3 teams in MLB as a filter? How would that change your record this year? I guess it would eliminate some wins too, but I wonder how many losses would be spared.
GL this weekend.
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Tuff night. What if you excluded the bottom 2 or 3 teams in MLB as a filter? How would that change your record this year? I guess it would eliminate some wins too, but I wonder how many losses would be spared.
Geez......very sour after yesterday......I am off the interleague games.....I am posting the plays because I posted them during the first round of IL games.....I am not playing them, so play at your own risk.
Toronto -135 x 1 unit Pittsburgh -125 x 1 unit Seattle -150 x 1 unit
Washington also qualifies, but they are -180...I can't lay that..if they lose game 1 pick them up in game 2.
I don't understand the lines on these games..Pittsburgh -125.....Seattle -150....these teams are awful and should not be laying odds...I don't care whose pitching.
Sorry for the disaster in the last week......dropped 2 series or 3 series if you count AZ vs BOS....I really think interleague is have some effect......I am sitting out until its over.......I hope I did not bust anyone and if you can stick with me when the IL games are done we will get it back.......GL.....or hell maybe fade me....either way GL
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Geez......very sour after yesterday......I am off the interleague games.....I am posting the plays because I posted them during the first round of IL games.....I am not playing them, so play at your own risk.
Toronto -135 x 1 unit Pittsburgh -125 x 1 unit Seattle -150 x 1 unit
Washington also qualifies, but they are -180...I can't lay that..if they lose game 1 pick them up in game 2.
I don't understand the lines on these games..Pittsburgh -125.....Seattle -150....these teams are awful and should not be laying odds...I don't care whose pitching.
Sorry for the disaster in the last week......dropped 2 series or 3 series if you count AZ vs BOS....I really think interleague is have some effect......I am sitting out until its over.......I hope I did not bust anyone and if you can stick with me when the IL games are done we will get it back.......GL.....or hell maybe fade me....either way GL
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