Before the Break / 10 days after the break

Hello everyone the week or so before the break and the first 10 days or so after the break can create some nice underdog opportunities.

 

Good teams limping into the break (losers of 7 out of their last 10) and are favorites can at times be real nice fades.  Psycologically, many of the teams think "Well we'll just really pick it up after the break"  

 

Also, good pitchers ...and all pitchers hit the wall about this time....A guy like Webb....always has a great first half but tends to go 50/50 in the second half.  There is a reason you hardly ever see 20 game winners.

 

I'm not completely sure of the dynamic but after doing this for many years I know there are a lot of +180 surprises to be had over the next 2 weeks if you pick the right spots.   For some reason the betting public is completely in love with the Phillies and I don't get it.   The Phils were favored over the LA Angels and were beaten and a -200 fav last night and were shut out.  They don't deserve to be -200 especially vs quality teams regardless of if Hammels is pitching.  

 

The yankees and red sox are usually over bet as well.  If someone has the time I'd be interested to see how the Yankees have performed in the first half of the last 4 seasons.  I'll bet if you faded them every time they were favored you'd probably be a decent chunk of money ahead.

 

I don't have a formula or anything too extravagant for this...just sheets where I handicap my games and  seeing year after year the same type of trend this type of year.  The public usually takes it on the chin in July.

 

So lets go out there and uncover some gems over the next few weeks as they should be there for the taking

Psycologically, many of the teams think "Well we'll just really pick it up after the break" 

 

sounds reasonable, but what is your source for this?