Baseball Super Series Betting System

We are betting that each team will win 2 out of 3 games.  For Monday, May 2nd, the eligible series are:

1) LA Dodgers over Chicago Cubs (3-game series)

2) Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego (3-game series)

If you would like the rules for this system, you can download it for free at Guide to Baseball Betting.

Horsecrap. 

What are you using for Money Management?  Are you flat betting each play at 1.25% of your entire bankroll?

Good Luck

This  system will   work

Having difficulties posting again.

May 3rd picks are Dodgers, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, and Rockies.

Record: 2-0, +1.91 units

Best of luck,

Bob

Everyone's money management strategy is different but I bet 1.25% on each game.  Also, split between money line and run line when odds between -150 and -200

Best of luck,

Bob

Wed, May 4th picks:

1) Dodgers (Series tied 1-1)
2) Pirates (Series tied 1-1)
3) Royals (KC leads 1-0)
4) Phillies (PHI leads 1-0)
5) Rockies (ARZ leads 1-0)

2011 Record: Series 0-0-0, Games 4-3, Units +0.27

Best of luck,

Bob

Covers Moderators,  For once maybe you'll do your job and remove threads like this that are only posting picks.  This is a "Systems & Strategies" section where any picks are supposed to be fully explained with the rules and theory behind them.  

There is a system being followed, you can see it in the link in post #1.  It may win, it may lose who knows. I have to say at least there is a system linked to this, there are many other contributers on here with ZERO strategy in terms of "a system".  They are merely capping their own games and implementing a money management strategy.  This does not equate to a system in my books.

Is it great that they share the picks...absolutely, is this the right forum, that's up for debate. 

It's up to us to weed out who we chose to follow/tail/support.

I do not believe the rules for this particular useless system are posted at this conman's website.  He does have rules on his site for several other worthless systems (ALL OF WHICH ARE LONGTIME LOSERS).  But, even if the rules were posted on his site, they are NOT posted on Covers.  The Systems & Strategies section is not the proper place to pimp his worthless crap. 

Thursday, May 5, 2011 Picks

1. Royals
2. Rockies

Status of Current Series

1. Dodgers/Cubs (Loss 1-2)
2. Pirates/Padres (Won 2-1)
3. Royals/Orioles (Tied 1-1)
4. Phillies/Nats (Won 2-0)
5. Rockies/D-Backs (Tied 1-1)

2011 Record: Series 2-1, Games 7-5, Units +1.03

The Baseball Super Series Betting System is based on a common sense approach that a stronger MLB team playing better right now, whether playing at home or on the road, will win the majority of its baseball series.

A stronger team must have a:

1. Higher Relative Power Index (ESPN);
2. Better Win/Loss Record.  For example, if the Jays are playing the Yankees in New York, you compare Toronto's Road Record against New York's Home Record;
3. Better record over the last 7 games.  For example, Jays record on the road could be 3-4 (L-7) and the Yankees home record 5-2 (L-7)

Elimination Rules - Stronger Team cannot:

1. Have lost four consecutive games (both home/road);
2. Have a record over the last 10 games of 3-6 or worse (both home and road games).

Elimination Rules - Opposing Team cannot:

1. Have won four consecutive games (road and home);
2. Be more than two games over .500.  For example, if the Jays have a 25-21 road record, you would eliminate the Jays/Yankees series for consideration if the system considered the Yankees as the stronger team.
3. Have a record over the last 10 games 6-4 or better (both road and home games.
4. Have a record of 5-2 or better at home or on the road in the last 7.
   

Correction: Elimination Rule #2 above for stronger teams should be 3-7 or worse.

I encourage feedback (good and bad) about my system.  However, let's please keep it professional. 

If you have a problem with me personally, then don't follow my thread.  If you would like to know who I am, then visit my website.  I explain who I am on my front page.

Best of luck,

Bob

rbies,  I'll finally give you some credit on two things.  1. You finally posted the rules of this system here at Covers, rather just using this site to pimp yours.  2.  Although I can tell you that this system WILL NOT show a profit after any reasonable length of a test (say 200 games), at least you have not fallen into the public nonsense that you need PITCHING to handicap baseball.  There is not a dimes worth of difference between 90% of all major league pitchers, they are ALL the best pitchers in the world.

observer55

You've obviously been around the block judging by your comments.  This is great and I enjoyed reading your post.  What i'm interested in is "your" system.  You seem to have a lot of answers and with your past knowledge you surely should be able to offer us something here at Covers.  What is your method to sports investing or have you learned so much over the years that you don't wager because it is impossible to win.

People with your experience are invaluable to a forum, (at least it sounds like you know a whole lot) hopefully you can provide us all with some constructive insight.

Good luck to you

oilcountry99,  I don't want to hijack rbies thread, I just wanted to warn bettors with less experience that the type of system listed above will ultimately fail.  The one thing I've learned in the many years I've been handicapping sports is that CONVENTIONAL handicapping DOES NOT WORK.  

observer----u had me in stitches with this post I have to totally agree with that theory that everyone should eventually realize sports gambling IS fun and IS a hobby and like any hobby it costs some money and if you think it is your job and you are touting a hairbrained system you WILL be broke......I have a system bet what you can afford to play cross your fingers and pray and hope to collect

 

observer55

I don't want to hijack the thread either, definitely not the intention.  I agree that thinking outside the box is beneficial, and like you said earlier.....all this has been tried before. We who are currently here in this forum are not the pioneers of sports betting that's for sure.  People can only learn from their own experiences it seems, unfortunately in most cases it's not a good lesson.

I also think those of us who have been fortunate enough to find some success are out there and of course won't make a good thing public only to ruin it, as you also stated above.

Maybe the best thing to do is fade every system that comes into this forum, my guess is it would be profitable.

 

Results of Last Series
Dodgers/Cubs (Lost 1-2)
Pirates/Padres (Won 2-1)
Royals/Orioles (Won 2-1)
Phillies/Nationals (Won 2-1)
Rockies/D-backs (Lost 1-2)


Friday, May 6th Picks:
Royals
Mariners
Marlins
Cardinals
Rockies

2011 Record: Series 3-2-0, Games 8-6, Units + 0.87

It took me months to develop this system (10-12 hour days, 7 days a week).  In fact, I did not start writing my website until I thought I had a system that had a chance to succeed.  I first tried developing a system for hockey but finally gave up.

The one caveat to my system is that one of the statistics that it uses to determine which team is the strongest team is the RPI developed by ESPN.  However, since ESPN could not give me the RPI for a team on a given day, I had to use the year-end RPI.  So I don't know how this will translate throughout the year.

But you have to admit that the premise of the system makes sense: A stronger team playing better right now should win the majority of series.

That's what I want to prove over the course of the 2011 baseball season.  I expect that I will have to tweak the system somewhat over the year since it does not take into consideration individual games.

For instance, the final game of the Dodgers series, the Dodgers were facing a right handed starting pitcher.  However, the Dodgers had a 9-14 record against RHP and the Cubs were 5-3 against LHP.  The Cubs won the game.  It is something that I'm monitoring.

I have looked at a lot of systems, and most of them are CHASE systems where you want to win 1 game of a series.  That did not make sense to me.  But I have not seen anything on winning more than 1 game in a series.  Maybe I didn't look hard enough but I would be surprised if anyone has a system like this one.

I believe that this system has a very good chance of making money.

rbies-

You should dig around more because there are MANY systems out there that are based on this same concept.  In fact, I also used this idea as a starting point for my system that was posted right here in this section on covers...and I also bet to win one, two, or even three games in a series:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100738380


This system started off in a huge hole, going down something like 25 units right out the gate.  Then it caught fire and ran off about 60 or 70 units in a month.  It got crushed at the end of June, losing almost all the profit.  In the second half of the season I made some changes in how to bet the system and it steadily climbed up until the last week of August when a Philly sweep knocked out a chunk of units.  It ended in the black for the season, but there was WAY too much volatility.  Having a "system" that hits at a decent rate is one challenge, figuring out how to bet that system is really the tough part in my opinion.  Especially if your system gives you a lot of favorites...it gets pretty expensive to go after favorites after interleague play ends in June.  The value goes away.  This simple fact has crushed many bankrolls.  Yeah, a stronger team SHOULD win most of the series, but when they don't it can be devastating...go look at the Baltimore at Texas series from last year...almost everybody remembers it.  I avoided that one but was hurt by a few others.  Good teams WILL get swept and you can't do anything to avoid it.  That's the challenge.  (side note:  I've already started a trial run for this year and will begin posting my system here again in a few weeks.  It will be interesting to follow each other).

Anyway, the system wasn't the greatest in the world and it far underperformed what I hoped last year, but I learned a lot and it helped me make some major adjustments.  Even though I started with a similar premise as you have here, my system differs greatly.  First of all, I don't trust ESPN worth a damn so I designed a program that would calculate my own "RPI" or whatever you want to call it based on many different factors.  There's nothing wrong with trying the "momentum" angle, but that alone probably won't get you too far.  I think a teams scoring ability is important and, while observer55 makes some good points, I have to disagree with the statement that pitching doesn't matter.  I strongly believe it does.  Not necessarily in any one game, but there's a reason that Cy Young winners almost always come from playoff teams.  More importantly, the bullpen makes a huge difference in how a team performs.  For individual games, the line that gets set in vegas is based largely on the starting pitcher...but if you're gonna bet only on the starting pitcher, you better stick to the first 5 innings only IMHO.  Anyway, those are just two things that you might want to add to your equation.

I don't have any illusions about coming up with a system that will make millions.  It's not going to happen.  I definitely do this for fun more than anything, and have no intention of making it my living.  I love sports, numbers, stats, and just trying to beat the man.  That's the only goal for me.  There are many haters that don't think using numbers and technical analysis can produce a winning edge.  I personally believe sabermetrics is an extremely powerful tool that actually can help you grind out an edge in the long term.  I'm not saying I can do it, or you can't do it, but it's definitely a blast to try.  Keep trying with your system.  Even if it doesn't end up making you money, there's still plenty of value in it.  Learning what doesn't work is a crucial step towards any solution.

Leprechaun

Thanks Leprechaun for your input.  I know the sweeps can kill you.  My filters are trying to minimize the sweeps.  We'll see how that works!  I'm also monitoring bullpens.

Bob