Any CFB systems based on odd changes ?

Question

New to systems.

Interested in college FB systems based on odds.

Once read about taking dog of 2 to 3 points I believe - won.to a winning degree as a cover.

I assume the favorite wins as often as the dog, in general. But what about odd changes up until game time? Does contrarian approach win - betting against the money that changes the odds?

Tinklebell · Answer

New to systems.

Interested in college FB systems based on odds.

Once read about taking dog of 2 to 3 points I believe - won.to a winning degree as a cover.

I assume the favorite wins as often as the dog, in general. But what about odd changes up until game time? Does contrarian approach win - betting against the money that changes the odds?

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i used sportsdatabase.com and looked at the last 3 years using spreads of 1.5 to 3.

ATS the last 3 years is 51% (156-150-7)

not including +3, ATS is 52% (103-95-1)

i mainly looked at SU. i'm using odds from William Hill US, and this is what i'm using:

+1.5 - EVEN

+2 - +110

+2.5 - +120

+3 - +140

it's only mildly profitable, and if i were doing it, i would only use +2 and +2.5. these numbers are if you bet 1 unit to win the line on each game.

ML

2014

+1.5 2-3 (-1 unit)

+2 2-5 (-2.8u)

+2.5 5-5 (1u)

+3 7-4 (+5.8u)

result so far: +3units (9% ROI)

2013

+1.5 4-4 (0u)

+2 13-9 (5.3u)

+2.5 9-8 (2.8u)

+3 13-24 (-5.8u)

result: +2.3u (2.7% ROI)

2012

+1.5 8-12 (-4u)

+2 10-8 (3u)

+2.5 16-18 (1.2u)

+3 14-23 (-3.4u)

result: -3.2u (-2.9% ROI)

2011

+1.5 8-2 (6u)

+2 12-11 (2.2u)

+2.5 10-15 (-3u)

+3 13-16 (2.2)

result: 1.4u (1.6% ROI)

if you only do +2 or 2.5, that's

2014 7-10 (-1.8u)

2013 22-17 (8.1u)

2012 26-26 (4.2u)

2011 22-26 (-.8u)

result: 9.7u (6.2%)

doesn't seem very worth it to me.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i realize you&#x27;re talking about line changes, but the only way to backtest that (that i&#x27;m aware) is to go through the line changes link on every game on covers, and i&#x27;m not about to do that.

Tinklebell · Answer

Thank you much for your research and the info. Guess no system exists based on changes in the odds.

Would like to know if early money (driving up odds) is more profitable to go with than later money (driving up odds within 24 hours before the game), and if ether beats 53%. Would be hard to research.

I understand books tend to ignore amateur (many small bets) money but move odds with big (smart) money

Any CFB systems based on odd changes ?

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