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Alamo's rendition of Gutcheck's system

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Ok, this basically is Gut's system, but since he has not responded in his thread, I'm gonna change a little due to advice from others in the other thread. All of your input would help!
This is the system:
 
Take the scores from team's A last 3 games, do the same for team B. Then divde the number by 6. I do not count overtime. I just move down the list, unless there are 2 overtimes in a row.
 
If the number I come up with is different from the VEgas number by 6 or more, I will bet on it. I stay away from Phoenix. But I also look at the Vegas number, and the last 10 games of the teams. If most of the games have gone against my bet....then I will not bet the game. If a team played Phoneix in the last three games, I will skip that game.
 
I'm not very good at explaining systems, so if you have a question, ask. I assume you read what GutCheck wrote. He explained his system better.
 
According to what I wrote, the play tonight would be Indiana under 225.
 
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Posted: #2
TRS, I would appreciate all of your help.
 
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Posted: #3
Interesting idea. Why not go back and check this out on logged games. NBA records are available on covers going back to 1999. I read about these systems all the time but does anybody ever check them out before posting? Just hard to have any confidence in something when the original author goes awol after a short time and claim to fame is "I hit like uh 70% before the bottom fell out."      
 
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Posted: #4
Diamond, well, I read the entire thread....and apparently about three fourths in the system was doing well...and they didn't want others getting the wind of it. I don't know for sure. My philosophy is that I want to beat the books. And I want to help you beat the books, if you help me... that is why I even post at covers. I don't have the time to check all the previous logs on nba scores...but I am just keeping track of this system now...and if it ends up being bad, then I will fade it. The worst case scenario is that it just hits 50%.
 
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Posted: #5
Ok, since I began this thread the system is 1-0.
tonight I have Boston under 185.
 
There were a couple of games that fit into the system, but the recent results made me turn away.
 
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Posted: #6
Last night was a winner. So far system is 2-0 in this thread since I added some perimeters.
 
Tonight, according to my numbers, Washington under 192 is the play.
 
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Posted: #7
I'll say this about totals systems. In my limited experience, for some reason, totals systems seem to test better than ats systems do. It's not too tough to think up a totals system that will do ok, if you think about it enough. Although I haven't tested Gutcheck's system, I wouldn't be surprised if it worked well when executed correctly.

The challenge always seems to be finding ats systems that work well. Ats systems usually have to be pretty complex to do well, and I haven't found one yet that tested out to 60%+ or better.

Good luck all.
 
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Posted: #8
alamo I also was tracking gutcheck but he stop responding and posting. He changed up his system a bit and not sure how so.  anyhow i wish  you the best of luck.  i am also testing my own system out which is similar to gutchecks system, however it is only going about 55% or so. 
 
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Posted: #9
Thanks for your input guys. I am knew to totals, I'm more of an ATS guy, but if a system makes money I am behind it. So far this system is 2-1 with the plays I posted. Remember, if a system tells me to play the underin a game, but the recent results favor the over, it's a no play for me. A few plays have been cancelled out by that.
 
Anyone, for tonight my numbers are behind:
 
Indiana under 221.5
Seattle under 198
 
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Posted: #10
Hey Alamo,
 
I just ran the numbers and my plays agree.  The Seattle game has the LARGEST differential that I have ever seen.
 
For what it's worth, the Sac v Tor game meets Gutchecks system and looks like a good play (over 200), but it doesn't hold up to the 60% filter.
 
Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #11
TRS, I think the filter helps though. My filteri s not as thorough as you, I lean more towards the last five or six, than the last 10....and I guess in the end it's just a judgement call. I also, when I add 2 teams totals for the past three games, if I see 2 or more overtimes, I drop that play.
 
I think you do the system better than I do, so I appreciate your help. Maybe we can tweak it to where it makes money....and if not, well, maybe we can come up with a new system! I'd rather stay away from chase systems though.
 
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Posted: #12
What filters are you guys using?  If there is OT in one of the past couple games, why not just do the regulation score instead of dropping the game.
 
I went over gutcheck's past few weeks of threads and I didn't even see him mention the system anymore.
 
Good info everyone.
 
 
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Posted: #13
0-2 last night. That means I am 2-3 on this system. Good idea LIpps to find regulation scores. Anyway, I am very tenative on the plays I am posting. I don't recommend betting anything, just observing.
 
 
 
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Posted: #14
Denver under 220.5
 
That's what I got for tonight.
I did the San Antonio-Cleveland game...the pointspead even with the overtime games was close...I don't want to touch that game.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by alamo1836:

Denver under 220.5
 
That's what I got for tonight.
I did the San Antonio-Cleveland game...the pointspead even with the overtime games was close...I don't want to touch that game.

I took over on that game, well at least one of will win.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

I took over on that game, well at least one of will win.

Glad I went over on that one.

Does this system have any legs at all or do you think it's pretty much toast?

 
 
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Posted: #17
LIpp, The record seemed to hit about 50%. I don't think this system is that great. It takes a lot of time....and well, I stopped doing the stats on Thursday because it was just taking too much time....and I had to work. I think I am pretty much finished with this system. I tried it out. You neverk now until you try it.
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