Against the Streak

Question

Hey Everyone,

I mentioned this idea to some of you already and I think it has potential so I would love to get your input and love it even more so if you like it and start using this strategy.

I follow some of the super system strategies floating around here and usually they are somewhat successful. On the other hand I have experience in betting on regular season NBA games with the simple strategy "bet on any game +300 or higher", which is quite successful. Therefore my main goal is to come up with strategies that are very easy to follow.

The idea behind my system is that in a 162 game season, all teams will streak (winning or losing alike) and unlike Golden State last season in basketball, there is a good chance that any streak will be broken in a reasonable amount of games. Looking at data from 2014 (which was conveniently available - I would love to test it for more years) the numbers say the following:

Winning streaks of more than 3 games:

4 games: 73

5 games: 46

6 games: 16

7 games: 4

8 games: 2

9 games: 5

10 games: 3

Hence more than 75% of streaks end after 6 games the latest.

Losing streaks:

4 games: 95

5 games: 26

6 games: 16

7 games: 12

8 games: 8

9 games: 1

10 games: 2

Here streaks of max 6 games make up 85% of all streaks.

I think this info is valuable as it is - but what to do with it?

My first idea was to bet on the 5th game of the streak and if I lose it, bet on the 6th to win 1 unit plus the stakes of the 5th and if I lose this again get out. I calculated some cases and this system does not seem to be profitable for a bad combination of expensive odds on long streaks.

My second plan was to play each streak till the end - I am aware that this will get expensive very quickly. But my confidence that no streak will go longer than 20 games keeps me playing it this way. Still it is important to have the required capital. Therefore I play this system with 1 unit as 1% of my bankroll. This season for test purposes I dedicated 200€ to this system and try to win 2€ per streak.

So far this season 9 streaks happened that were 4 games or longer - including a long streak of the Blue Jays losing at very expensive odds, which is the worst case. But I converted this streak into one unit as well.

Next to those 9 streaks that have already concluded there are currently also 9 streaks active. The longest is the yankees winning streak and 6 of them are exactly 4 games long, so I will bet on the the first time tonight.

Using 2014 as an example, there were 339 streaks of at least 4 games. If one would have played this system back than this would have led to 339 units profits - with stakes of 100 units.

The best part of this system is that I can co go to any standings table to identify new plays, and for those that I have started, I only have to write down how much a put on the streak already.

All in all I am pretty confident that this system could work but once again I hope for your ideas! Some questions are still on my mind about it:

- how could I predict excessively long streaks that have too much risk for the reward of one unit

- could the strength of a team (power ranking or else) be implemented in this system to predict "streak breaking abilities"?

- On which team do I bet when two streaking teams meet (2 winning streaks for example)

Well this has been more than I anticipated. Any questions?

Happy to hear your thoughts!

Tillitille

tillitille · Answer