A Theoretical Question..Good Answers Much Appreciated..

Good point. It is merely a theoretical question, but once we have an answer I can explain how I'd like to apply it.

I think he may be refrencing it to a live betting scenerio???

anyway, the answer saadly is no, it wont necessarily help you, my advice to you since you do seem to know capping, is look for the MIDDLES in this scenerio, take a position, then look to middle and get 6-8 points,,, 

that is sage advice my frined

tater

I think he may be refrencing it to a live betting scenerio???

anyway, the answer saadly is no, it wont necessarily help you, my advice to you since you do seem to know capping, is look for the MIDDLES in this scenerio, take a position, then look to middle and get 6-8 points,,, 

that is sage advice my frined

tater

 

Thanks for the response tate. Would you mind elaborating on why it wouldnt help? I just cant get my head around it... given that the spread hits at 50% every year, why wouldnt the down 3 off spread % be the same if you are only taking time left and numeric deficit into account?

I guess logically, being down 3 against the spread with 8 minutes left will comeback a greater % of the time than being down 4 over the long run....That should be a fact, no?

but you're saying these two percentages will vary too greatly within those logical confines to be reliable over 500 games?

 

w3rdy, the truth is with NBA(ugh) some teams will fight to the end, others will not, the questions you ask are extremely complex, lets say for example steve nash, he is thegrandmaster of clock management,  you want an OVER,,, he is who you want in that game lol,,,, (especially with his team down,,)

the real question is what teams have alot of fight in them and can close a gap???? spurs,,,,, bost(finally),,,denver,,,

 the real quesiton is,,,, what teams dont giv a sht??? Miami Memphis seattle,,,,,,,

Now PLUG those into your equation, and you will have a statistical lean as to gaining a tiny bit of advantage,  Now at this point you have to figure out how much a team wants to win, now with the NBA that could be ANYTIME???  thats why capping this sport is so dam hard,,,

Your presumption that getting in at 8 mins left will gain you some advantage??? well,,, I definatley would advise you to track it with whats left of the season, but here again I believe your njumbers will be askew, as to who cares???? and whos given up???

gl

tater

 

 

T-

Very interesting response, but let me try to distance this from the betting standpoint.

Lets make things a bit easier here with a simpler and more to-the-point theoretical question:

If I pick a random team with 8 minutes in the 4th quarter 500 times:

How many of those teams will beat the opponent by 3 points or more at the end of those 8 minutes?

Say we get 44%. Meaning 44% of the time the team we chose will beat the opponent by 3 or more within that 8 minutes. Will this percentage be accurate over the next 500 random teams?

 

ANSWER ME THIS, and i can go to bed sanely.

500 is never a large enough sample, always minimum 1000.

What you need is a sample of 1000 IN THIS SITUATION. If you use 500 games, then the number of situations in the scenario you are looking for may only be a handful, and even then the sample maybe biased.