a system i've been using (sounds too logical to be true?)

Question

what&#x27;s up yoi came up with this system that has helped me become profitable lately.  i only bet RUN LINES.  the juice on ML is too expensive.  i havent done any backtesting but here is my first shot at introducing a system to this knowledgeable community.  dont hate until it loses you money lolcompletely simple and effective1) start with the heaviest favorites downward.  2) look at the teams previous day batting average.  3) skip the heavy favorites until you see a team that has hit well the day before.for example today 8/5/2014, the heaviest favorite is the dodgers (fulfillment of step 1), then i look at previous day&#x27;s batting average of dodgers (8/4/2014) (32 AB, 5 hits, 2 walks) my thought: that looks terrible and i&#x27;ll pass (i&#x27;m freaking passing on kershaw which i never do but the dodgers cant hit)so i look at the next heaviest favorite (seattle) (fulfillment of step 1)then i see they didnt play yesterday. so i skip themi hope this makes sense.the RUN line for me is the way to go. i know that many avoid the RL like the plague but i personally cannot afford chasing systems on the ML after 2 losses. thoughts?i love this community by the way.  i want all of us to win because i look at vegas and sportsbooks as the enemy (goliath) and we are the davids.

emceemiko · Answer

what&#x27;s up yoi came up with this system that has helped me become profitable lately.  i only bet RUN LINES.  the juice on ML is too expensive.  i havent done any backtesting but here is my first shot at introducing a system to this knowledgeable community.  dont hate until it loses you money lolcompletely simple and effective1) start with the heaviest favorites downward.  2) look at the teams previous day batting average.  3) skip the heavy favorites until you see a team that has hit well the day before.for example today 8/5/2014, the heaviest favorite is the dodgers (fulfillment of step 1), then i look at previous day&#x27;s batting average of dodgers (8/4/2014) (32 AB, 5 hits, 2 walks) my thought: that looks terrible and i&#x27;ll pass (i&#x27;m freaking passing on kershaw which i never do but the dodgers cant hit)so i look at the next heaviest favorite (seattle) (fulfillment of step 1)then i see they didnt play yesterday. so i skip themi hope this makes sense.the RUN line for me is the way to go. i know that many avoid the RL like the plague but i personally cannot afford chasing systems on the ML after 2 losses. thoughts?i love this community by the way.  i want all of us to win because i look at vegas and sportsbooks as the enemy (goliath) and we are the davids.

cougarpines · Answer

Interesting so far but sounds incomplete with the information and examples given unless I misread it.  With your system what is the play today since you only gave us the teams to skip? Is it a chase or just a one time bet?

emceemiko · Answer

to be honest there are no teams to play today.

the only one i am playing are the orioles today (ML not run line) as the orioles are the underdog. they are hitting well and buerhle sucks

i tend to put a lot of weight on how a team is hitting in the past 1-2 games. that combined with coming off a win.

there are no favorites playing today that hit well yesterday or didnt play at all yesterday (very few games)

it can be a chase. ive been playing conservative with my bank roll, but i think you wont go on bad streaks as the odds on the ML are based on a pitcher. and that combined with a team's hot hitting should be solid gold

cougarpines · Answer

Thanks for the follow up.

tidbit · Answer

Hi emcee,1. We can&#x27;t all win. Betting on sports is a marketplace. For each dollar bet on one side, there must be a dollar bet on the other side. The casinos collect the juice.2. Your "system" isn&#x27;t really a system. What you&#x27;re doing is trying to find optimal betting leverage based on yesterday&#x27;s game. That&#x27;s smart. I would recommend you don&#x27;t turn this into a chase system, especially since you&#x27;ve indicated you can&#x27;t afford it.3. Baseball is a game of averages. A hot-hitting team will need to go cold in order to maintain league averages. That means that if a lot of your hot-hitting teams go cold on you on consecutive days, you could go in the red very easily. Be aware of that and plan accordingly.

emceemiko · Answer

thanks for the wise words! i agree. yeah i didnt feel too comfortable calling it a system either. but it has helped a ton. i am not a big fan of chasing. i feel like chasing after 2 losses is crazy to be honest. but you're right about the cold and hot streaks. i actually have taken that into account and i personally dont ever bet on the same team back to back. the team or play of the day is always different. so i never "ride a particularly team" ever.

for example, i recently bet on oakland earlier this week but then didnt the next day because they did cover the RL the day i bet but didnt light it up with hits and walks. i hope this isnt confusing.

cougarpines · Answer

Are you planning on posting your plays with reasoning behind each? It would be fun to follow. I play two systems in baseball which do well but like you say, its tough to go beyond game two in a chase.

emceemiko · Answer

i bet on the orioles (not really using the above system per se) but very related.

i looked at the team that hit hot the day before. in this case the orioles.

so far so good. orioles up 3-0

Pending

8/5/14 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 961 Baltimore Orioles +114* vs Toronto Blue Jays (B Norris - R must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)

emceemiko · Answer

today bet on the rangers MLroyals RLand reds RL

emceemiko · Answer

rangers up on sale 2-0 in top of the 2nd.

this system isnt perfect but it's been pretty good. i was on a good streak before i posted my first post up above. i didnt want to post something without seeing it myself first.

hot hitting teams even against the league's best pitchers can hit the ball.

last night, kershaw almost lost.

emceemiko · Answer

Big wins today.  2-0 today 3-0 overallKansas City RL coming up

emceemiko · Answer

Big wins today.  2-0 today 3-0 overallKansas City RL coming up

robbypark · Answer

Wow, you might be on to something bud. Will keep tuning in to see how well it goes.

BigTenWatto · Answer

I like the recency of this idea. Makes current values of performance much more meaningful than a seasons worth of stats/trends.

Looking at today, Oak had a team batting average of .152 and StL was similarly bad at .162.

Seattle won yesterday, had a .350 team batting average and a .405 team OBP. Plus the Sox have been in an offense funk for two days against terrible Texas pitchers.

emceemiko · Answer

thanks for the insight and encouragement.  i have been playing relatively conservative about this too.  because even if a team is hitting hot, i look at who they are facing.i was set on picking Seattle today, but then i saw the White Sox had 8 hits.  a little high in my opinion.  so i am not betting on seattle today (even though they will score a few runs i bet).with your insight on oakland and st louis.  who are they playing, is their opponent hitting hot?today, the only play for me is Toronto.  baltimore had 1 hit.  blue jays, alot of their players hitlastly, even if the total hits for a team are high, i want to see if most of the players hit or contributed.  if a team has 12 hits but 3 players make up 7 of those hits, i wont play the teamthoughts?i love this community!!

emceemiko · Answer

Today&#x27;s playthe RUN LINE on Bluejaysnever play a team if the payout is less than 100&#x2B;.i either play an underdog ML or a favorite RL.  just sayin.hollA

emceemiko · Answer

BigTen:  did you play seattle?!i should have pulled the trigger lol. anyway, the play for today is seattle RL

BigTenWatto · Answer

For sure I hit them. Not large yet as I want to follow this for the rest of the season and see how it plays out before I go big.

The other good thing about this idea, is if someone has the time, is that it's completely back-test-able (not a word, I know).

Anyway, with LAA's impotence last night and Oakland winning despite hitting .212 as a team with an OBP of .305, I totally agree Seattle is again the play today.

Good luck miko, love this idea.

emceemiko · Answer

Seattle won covered the RL boom

robbypark · Answer

Still undefeated. Keep it up.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

hey man, missed your pick today. i like what you've been doing.

this is probably a stupid question, but i've looked all over for a daily batting average/OBP stat. do you get that from somewhere specific or do you calculate that yourself? or am i just being dense? thanks.

emceemiko · Answer

if you&#x27;ve been following this system, you wouldve gone 3-1 the past 4 days.

emceemiko · Answer

if you go on espn.com and go to the scores and click box score you can take the AB (at bat&#x27;s) minus the walks.  and then take hits divided by that number.  you&#x27;re not being dense.  it&#x27;s a good question!  we are all in this together

emceemiko · Answer

BigTen - how you doing with this system?  have you been playing with it?  there was a loss over the weekend, but 3-1.  each play has been &#x2B;130 payout at least.  last night i played the dodgers and they were dogs at &#x2B;145 and they won 6-2.  freakin insane how profitable this has been the past 2 weeks.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

thanks a lot for the explanation. much appreciated. i may do some backtesting into this if i get time.

so let me see if i understand this. highest favorites today are LAA (-235) and CLE (-180) but they didn't play yesterday, so no bet.

what's your reasoning as to not using numbers from 2 days ago.. is it just the immediacy of the other available games and the current series matchup?

so the next highest favorites are STL (-148), SD (-142), WSH (-142), OAK (-140), BAL (-138).

WSH didn't play yesterday, STL's BA yesterday was less than MIA on a miniscule level, SD has a decent difference between their BA & COL (.161), OAK actually loses in that equation to KC by .153, and BAL beat the crap out of the yanks by .205.

i don't know what the pick was yesterday, and i know you don't bet the same team twice, so i can't go off of that, but i'd say

BAL as the main pick?

as secondary picks i'd say:

SEA (.284 difference)

SD

TB (.192 difference)

then underdogs:

LAD (.150 difference)

KC

i know you're only picking a one or a few games, but i just want to check to see if i'm doing this right? thanks for your help. this is really, really cool.

a system i've been using (sounds too logical to be true?)

Hot Forum Topics