Posted:
#1
NHL
CAR/TOR Under 5.5 #11
MIN/COL Under 5.5 #11
NCAAB
ND/DEP Over 142.5 #17
NMST/FRST Under 139 #16
System Record [66 - 52] ~55.9%
Specific Play Since Indexing
#11 [1 - 1]
#16 [5 - 1]
#17 [8 - 8]
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[66 - 52] CJT System 2/3/2011
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Posted:
#4
Back-to-back swing play (NFL)
(1) Bet against Team A if Team A has won back-to-back games by scoring 30 or more and given up 12 or less.
50 Point Swing (NFL)
(2) Bet against Team A if team A’s previous win margin + Team B’s previous loss margin is greater than or equal to 50.
8 Goal Swing (NHL)
(3) Bet against Team C if Team C’s previous win margin + Team D’s previous loss margin is greater than or equal to 8 goals.
Back-to-back swing play (NHL)
(4) Bet against team B if team B has won back-to-back games by scoring 4 or more and given up 1 or less goals. ( this is stronger without empty-netters )
Mean Regression (NFL)
(5) Bet the over when 38 or less points is the total for 3 out of the 4 games when looking at each teams previous two games.
Mean Regression (NFL)
(6) Bet the under when 50 or more points is the total for 3 out of the 4 games when looking at each teams’ previous two games.
Mean Regression (NHL)
(7) Bet the under when each teams’ previous two games’ total, four in all, have a sum of 30 or more.
(8) Bet the under when each team’s previous game’s total, two in all, have a sum of 17.
(9) Bet the over when each teams’ previous two games’ total, four in all, have a sum of 14 or less.
(10) Bet the over when each teams’ previous games’ total, two in all, have a sum of 5 or less.
Regress Value (NHL)
Look at both teams previous 5 games. Eliminate any games that had a total of 5 or 6.
(11) Then take the under if a big majority of the games are over 6. This particularly works best if only one game came in under 5.
(12) Take the over if a big majority of the games are under 5. Likewise this is strong if only one game came in over 6.
Back-to-back swing play (NCAAB)
(13) Bet against team C if team C has won back-to-back games by scoring 82 or more and given up 56 or less.
Regress Value (NBA)
(14) Bet the over when each team’s total went 8 points below their average total for 3 out of the 4 games when looking at teach teams’ previous two games.
(15) Bet the under when each team’s total went 8 points above their average total for 3 out of the 4 games when looking at each teams’ previous two games.
***The following applies to NCAAB & NBA totals: (14, 15, 16, & 17)***
( make sure you have a reasonable line, one that fits within each teams’ average total. In other words, if they’re moving the line b/c of their previous higher/lower totals, be confident, and play it as 3, 4 or 5%. If they move it in the direction our system predicts, make it a 1/2 play. )
Mean Regression (NCAAB)
(16) Look at each teams’ previous two games; bet the under when at least 3 out of 4 of those games have gone at least 1 standard deviation above their own respective totals’ mean.
(17) Look at each teams’ previous two games; bet the over when at least 3 out of 4 of those games have gone at least 1 standard deviation below their own respective totals’ mean.
NBA
(18) Bet against any NBA team that scores, for their previous 3 games, 30 points in summation above their own offensive average.
NHL
(19) Bet against any NHL team that scores 4 goals or more three straight games.
NCAAB
(20) Bet any team when the previous game fits the mold of a “5 Standard Deviation Swing.” This wager should be on the team coming off the losing part of the 5 STD swing.
Record as of 2/3/2011 and since only starting keeping track for only a couple weeks.
NHL (3) 0 - 1
NHL (10) 1 - 1
NHL (11) 1 - 1
NBA (14) 2 - 0
NBA (15) 5 - 4
NCAAB (16) 5 - 1
NCAAB (17) 8 - 8
NBA (18) 0 - 1
NCAAB (20) 3 - 0
Keep in mind that I've just begun indexing each play. I've noticed that the Back - to - Back fade is the strongest of them all; however, my over/unders have been very strong in the NBA / NCAAB since using a mean for each team.
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