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6-Game Team Total *Over* Martingale Chase

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Posted: #1
I will be following a total of 7 teams, 6 at home and 1 away. I lay on them having a team total OVER when they play at home (with the exception being the Devil Rays).

The six home teams are NYY, CIN, ARI, BOS, TEX, and ATL.

The away team will be TB.

The only exception to passing/skipping the current day is if the starting pitcher for the opposing team has an overall ERA of 3.00 or less (e.g. Halladay, Wainwright). This is the only statistic I factor in as far as opposing team stat goes.

The goal of every chase will be to win $5.00. If I lose, I lay XXX to win 5. Once the play wins, I restart.

Opinions? The only thing I can think of right now is by having seven different running plays, I risk a lot of bankroll when things aren't going my way. With that being said, my plays are in the next post.
 
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Posts: 263
Posted: #2
6/15 Plays

NYY
Day 1: Off (Opposing pitcher ERA = 1.96)
Playing: Off

CIN
Day 1: Laying 5.25/5
Playing: o4 -105

ARI
Day 1: Off (Team is Away)
Playing: Off

BOS
Day 1: Laying 6/5
Playing: o5 -120

TEX
Day 1: Off (Team is Away)
Playing: Off

ATL
Day 1: Off (Opposing pitcher ERA = 2.23)
Playing: Off

TB
Day 1: Laying 6.25/5
Playing: o4 -125
 
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Posts: 263
Posted: #3

6/16 Results

Overall Record: 2-1 (+4.75u)

 

CIN (Series Record: 0-0)

Day 1: Laying 5.25/5 = L

 

BOS 

(Series Record: 1-0)

Day 1: Laying 6/5 = W

 

TB 

(Series Record: 1-0)

Day 1: Laying 6.25/5 = W

 
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Posted: #4
6/17 Plays
Overall Record: 2-1 (+4.75)

NYY (Chase Record: 0-0)
Day 1: Over 5.5 -120 (6/5)

CIN (0-0)
Day 2: Over 4.0 +100 (10.25/10.25)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

BOS (1-0)
Day 1: Over 5.5 -105 (5.25/5)

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

ATL (0-0)
Day 1: Over 4.5 -105 (5.25/5)

TB (1-0)
Day 1: Over 4.0 -105 (5.25/5)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Oops, looks like my calendar is one day ahead by accident. Should be plays for 6/16.
 
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Posted: #6
6/16 Results
Overall Record: 4-4 (-6.75)

NYY (Chase Record: 0-0)
Day 1: Over 5.5 -120 (6/5) = L

CIN (0-0)
Day 2: Over 4.0 +100 (10.25/10.25) = L

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

BOS (2-0)
Day 1: Over 5.5 -105 (5.25/5) = W

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

ATL (1-0)
Day 1: Over 4.5 -105 (5.25/5) = W

TB (1-0)
Day 1: Over 4.0 -105 (5.25/5) = L
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
6/17 Plays
Overall Record: 4-4 (-6.75)

NYY (0-0)
Day 2: Over 5.5 +100 (11/11)

CIN (0-0)
Day 3: Over 4.0 -120 (18.30/15.25)

ATL (1-0)
Day 1: Over 4.5 +105 (4.76/5)

BOS (2-0)
Day 1: Over 5 +100 (5/5)

 
Prospect
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Posts: 170
Posted: #8

Team total chases can be VERY profitable, I have some experience with them.

6-game chases are a little heavy, so you must start very small which may be an incovenience.

I suggest you look at better angles, not restrict yourself to a handfull of teams, run a more conservative money management (aggr. labby etc..) and chase for a max of 4games.

Chances are your winning percentage will not be as good chase wise but will be more profitable this way.

Gluck, definatly will keep an eye on your thread.

GMSI

 
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Posted: #9

Also, forgot to mention, make sure you have several outs or high enough limits on these types of plays... May be difficult depending your real unit size because of the smaller prop market.

GMSI

 
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Posts: 305
Posted: #10
My opinion....6 game chases get way to expensive, but GL......I hope you do well.
 
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Posted: #11
Update:

ATL (1-0)
Day 1: Over 4 -120 (6/5) (instead of 4.5)

New line at 5dimes.
 
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Posted: #12
6/18 Standing/Plays
Overall Record: 6-6 (-2.26)

NYY (0-0)
Day 3: 16.80/16 -> Over 5 -105

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

BOS (3-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

ATL (1-0)
Day 2: 10.48/11 --> Over 5½ +105

TB (1-0)
Day 2: OFF, X/10.25

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5
 
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Posted: #13
Side note: I made the mistake of playing TB *OFF* when I should have made a play on them as they are the only team I lay when they play Away. I also made the mistake of putting BOS off when they were a play. My errors, I won't count them at all.

6/18 Results
Overall Record: 7-7 (-8.06)

NYY (0-0)
Day 3: 16.80/16 -> Over 5 -105 = L (Next is Day 4 -> Lay X/21.80)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

BOS (3-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

ATL (2-0)
Day 2: 10.48/11 --> Over 5½ +105 = 
W (Next is Day 1 -> X/5)

TB (1-0)
Day 2: OFF, X/10.25

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

 
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Posted: #14
6/19 Plays
Overall Record: 7-7 (-8.06)

NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> OFF, opposing pitcher ERA <3.00 (X/21.80)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

BOS (3-0)
Day 1: Over 5½ -115 -> Lay 5.75/5

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

ATL (2-0)
Day 1 -> Over 4 +100 -> Lay 5/5

TB (1-0)
Day 2: Over 5 +100 -> Lay 10/25/10.25

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5
 
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Posted: #15
6/19 Plays
Overall Record: 9-8 (+1.44)

NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> OFF, opposing pitcher ERA <3.00 (X/21.80)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

BOS (3-0)
Day 1: Over 5½ -115 -> Lay 5.75/5 = L

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5

ATL (3-0)
Day 1 -> Over 4 +100 -> Lay 5/5 = W

TB (2-0)
Day 2: Over 5 +100 -> Lay 10/25/10.25 = W

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, X/5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
6/20 Plays
Overall Record: 9-8 (+1.44)

*NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> Laying 22.89/21.80, Over 4½ -105

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

*BOS (3-0)
Day 2: Laying 12.90/10.75, Over 5 -120

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

*ATL (3-0)
Day 1: Laying 5.75/5.00, Over 5 -115

TB (2-0)
Day 1: OFF, opposing pitcher ERA > 3.00

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away
 
Prospect
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Posts: 170
Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Prae:


*NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> Laying 22.89/21.80, Over 4½ -105

Getting a little expensive already so early in this systems history.

 
Prospect
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Posts: 263
Posted: #18
6/20 Plays
Overall Record: 10-10 (-29.35)

*NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> Laying 22.89/21.80, Over 4½ -105 = L (-22.89)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

*BOS (3-0)
Day 2: Laying 12.90/10.75, Over 5 -120 = L (-12.90)

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

*ATL (3-0)
Day 1: Laying 5.75/5.00, Over 5 -115 = W (+5)

TB (2-0)
Day 1: OFF, opposing pitcher ERA > 3.00

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF, team is away

Big day of hurt. Damn Yankees costing me. Tex hits a grand-slam before the 1st half ends and the Yanks can't muster up ONE more run. Ugh.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 263
Posted: #19
6/21 Plays
Overall Record: 10-10 (-29.35)

ARI (0-0)
Day 1: 5.50/5, Over 4½ -110
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 263
Posted: #20
6/21 Results
Overall Record: 11-10 (-24.35)

NYY (0-0)
Day 4 -> OFF (Next: Day 4 -> X/27.89)

ARI (1-0)
Day 1: Laying 5.75/5.00, Over 5 -115 = W (+5)

BOS (3-0)
Day 2: OFF (Next: Day 2 -> X/17.90)

CIN (1-0)
Day 1: OFF

ATL (4-0)
Day 1: OFF

TB (2-0)
Day 1: OFF

TEX (0-0)
Day 1: OFF
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