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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    $50 to $5,000 BATORF chase

    «First Previous 12
    neilsy25
    bettor2win
    Xaviercito
    BookieCrusher88
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    Views: 4833
    Posts: 36
    «First Previous 12
     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posts: 818
    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 11:07 AM ET #26

    I have actually worked with the 3 game chase.. you would be betting  1% , 11% then 88% .. the math does support this somewhat, if the intent is say just to double your stake, instead of trying to turn $50 into 5k .. The numbers are

    favorite wins by one run in about 18% of games

    in the 3 game chase you would need about 85 wins or so to double your intial stake

    as per the streak calculator found at SBR, there is about a 33% chance of ruin (series length 85,streak length 3, loss probability 18%) ..so basically you are getting paid 1-1 on something that should have odds of about -166 ( i think) ..which, in theory, should be profitable over a large sample..

    If i was going to do this, i would probably run 3 or 4 simultaneous chases, therefore if one busts, i still make proift when the other 3 come in. As well,  i would be more selective in games, and try to stick with road faves, which win by 1 run about 1% less of the time, 1% which as per the SBR streak calculator reduces your risk of ruin down to about 17%..

     

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    I have actually worked with the 3 game chase.. you would be betting  1% , 11% then 88% .. the math does support this somewhat, if the intent is say just to double your stake, instead of trying to turn $50 into 5k .. The numbers are

    favorite wins by one run in about 18% of games

    in the 3 game chase you would need about 85 wins or so to double your intial stake

    as per the streak calculator found at SBR, there is about a 33% chance of ruin (series length 85,streak length 3, loss probability 18%) ..so basically you are getting paid 1-1 on something that should have odds of about -166 ( i think) ..which, in theory, should be profitable over a large sample..

    If i was going to do this, i would probably run 3 or 4 simultaneous chases, therefore if one busts, i still make proift when the other 3 come in. As well,  i would be more selective in games, and try to stick with road faves, which win by 1 run about 1% less of the time, 1% which as per the SBR streak calculator reduces your risk of ruin down to about 17%..

     

     
    bettor2win
    bettor2win
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 11:58 AM ET #27

    My first play hit the "18%". Damn! 0-1 already! Im with you on laa/nyy
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    My first play hit the "18%". Damn! 0-1 already! Im with you on laa/nyy
     
    Xaviercito
    Xaviercito
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 3:15 PM ET #28

    5-0 for the Yankees during inning 7, sounds good for your all-in bet 
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    5-0 for the Yankees during inning 7, sounds good for your all-in bet 
     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 3:48 PM ET #29

     Dodged another bullet...224 to go 

    current roll  $108.51

    Level 1 bet  12% = 13.02

    Giants  -1.5  +120     $7.02 to win  $8.42

    Pirates +163    $6 to win  $9.78

     

     

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     Dodged another bullet...224 to go 

    current roll  $108.51

    Level 1 bet  12% = 13.02

    Giants  -1.5  +120     $7.02 to win  $8.42

    Pirates +163    $6 to win  $9.78

     

     

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posts: 818
    Posted: Apr. 13, 2012 - 7:43 PM ET #30

      223 to go

     

    Current roll  $110.93

    level 1  12% of $110.93  = $13.31

    Goin for the Friday tri-fecta !

    Oakland ML +140     $7.00 to win $9.80

    Seattle -1.5 +150  $6.31 to win $9.46

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      223 to go

     

    Current roll  $110.93

    level 1  12% of $110.93  = $13.31

    Goin for the Friday tri-fecta !

    Oakland ML +140     $7.00 to win $9.80

    Seattle -1.5 +150  $6.31 to win $9.46

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2012 - 1:33 AM ET #31

    222 to go 

    Current Roll  $114.42

    Level 1  12% of 114.42 = 13.73

    Saturday

    Mets ML  +133     $7.23 to win $9.62

    Phillies -1.5  +150   $6.50 to win $9.75

    GO SENS GO

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    222 to go 

    Current Roll  $114.42

    Level 1  12% of 114.42 = 13.73

    Saturday

    Mets ML  +133     $7.23 to win $9.62

    Phillies -1.5  +150   $6.50 to win $9.75

    GO SENS GO

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2012 - 1:43 AM ET #32

     221 to go 

    Current Roll  $117.54

    Level 1 bet  12% of 117.54  = $14.10

    Sunday

    Pirates ML +143  $7.10 to win  $10.15

    Giants -1.5  +145    $7 to win $10.15

     

    GO SENS GO

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     221 to go 

    Current Roll  $117.54

    Level 1 bet  12% of 117.54  = $14.10

    Sunday

    Pirates ML +143  $7.10 to win  $10.15

    Giants -1.5  +145    $7 to win $10.15

     

    GO SENS GO

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2012 - 7:47 PM ET #33

    220 to go 

    current roll   $120.69

    level 1  12$ of $120.69 = $14.48

    Yankees -1.5 +110    $8 to won $8.80

    Angels ML +167    +167   $6.48 to win  $10.82

     

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    220 to go 

    current roll   $120.69

    level 1  12$ of $120.69 = $14.48

    Yankees -1.5 +110    $8 to won $8.80

    Angels ML +167    +167   $6.48 to win  $10.82

     

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
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    Posts: 818
    Posted: Apr. 16, 2012 - 9:34 AM ET #34

     219 to go

    Current roll  $123.01

    Level1  12% of $123.01   = $14.48

     

    Braves -1.5 +130      $7.68 to win $9.98

    Mets +157        $6.80 to win $10.68

     

     

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     219 to go

    Current roll  $123.01

    Level1  12% of $123.01   = $14.48

     

    Braves -1.5 +130      $7.68 to win $9.98

    Mets +157        $6.80 to win $10.68

     

     

     
    neilsy25
    neilsy25
    Rookie
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    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 818
    Posted: Apr. 17, 2012 - 12:48 PM ET #35

      218 to go

    Current Roll   $126.01   

    Level 1   12% of $126.01 = $15.12

    Washington -1.5 +135    $8 to win $10.80

    Houston +158    $7.12 to win  $11.25

     

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      218 to go

    Current Roll   $126.01   

    Level 1   12% of $126.01 = $15.12

    Washington -1.5 +135    $8 to win $10.80

    Houston +158    $7.12 to win  $11.25

     

     
     
    BookieCrusher88
    BookieCrusher88
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    Joined: Dec, 2010
    Posts: 1309
    Posted: Apr. 21, 2012 - 12:40 PM ET #36

    You're still posting plays neilsy?
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    You're still posting plays neilsy?
    All Forums | Systems & Strategies
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