5 Sports Strategies

I have been working on some very numbers based strategies for each sport that I follow. I've been gambling for 6 years and semi-seriously for the last two, trying to develop some analytical ways to bet. A lot of credit goes to some great cappers that I have followed in trying to systemize my bets, people like Silly, Key Element and Wahoo, along with more situational bettors like Stuckey and Louis (I am not a basketball guy so, my NBA system is blatantly just Silly's under system; see his site for details).

I use Bet365 exclusively for my bets, so that's where my lines come from. (I have a small acct at Pinny for following certain guys on twitter and trends at this site like Dan/TheRizz's hockey thread and the baseball RPI).

I would not advise anyone to follow; I am merely using covers to track (my New Years resolution is to carefully track this year and this is a useful way to discipline myself).

I am starting with one stack of high society (for you Rounders fans) and betting 0.5% of my stack in on each bet to start, just to ease into it. The goal is to double the stack by Dec. 31.

I bet NHL (after New Years), NBA (after New Years), NCAAF, NFL, and MLB.

Jan 1
NCAAF: N. Texas -6.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1 unit
My system has this spread at N. Tex -15.5, so it's hard to pass up.

NCAAF: Stanford pk/Baylor -10.5, 6.5 tease, -1.25, 1 to win 0.8
My system has Stanford -3.5 and Baylor -15; both of these lines obviously got away from me, so, I'll tease them both down.

NBA: Indiana/Toronto u190, -110, 1.1 to win 1
Blind under play.

N. Texas game finished about 45 mins ago?

Hey BigTenWatto.. wanted to have a look at the NBA Under system you mention but could not find it… could you be so kind and point a lost man in the right direction.. thanks

Mindtides: Yup, it was definitely a late post. I wrote out the post at 11:45am, thought I hit submit, went to help the kiddies, came back at 4 to start capping the next days games, and low and behold it was still on the screen. Joys of chasing two little kids. Again, the posting is only for my record keeping. If it bothers you, sorry.

Goodsy: PM me please. Not allowed to give out websites here, and Silly's leaving of Covers was acrimonious. Its an easy system to explain though.

Jan 1 recap:

2-1, +1 unit
N.Texas was a pretty good call; good senior QB with a good passing game, usually when my system has close to a ten point disparity from the Vegas spreads I do alright.

Parlay was a obviously a bad read. Shouldn't chase steam, as I've been told hundreds of times. Lesson learned; again.

NBA under, blind play. Won by over 10 points.

Jan 2
NHL: Chi -180, 1.8 to win 1
Crawford .943 svp vs. NYI

NHL: Win +120, 1 to win 1.2
Montoya .928 svp on the road this year, Anderson struggling as of late.

NHL: Phi +105, 1 to win 1.05
Mason .917 svp on the road this year, Varlamov .872 svp vs Phi

NHL: SJ -1, -163, 1.63 to win 1
Auto play over -250 line

No NCAA play, real close on the under. I have it at 46. If it continues to climb before kick-off I might be back to post. Think the spread was right on at open of Ala -15, has moved to -17. Can't see either team caring, as both missed their conf. champ. games on last day of season. Hard to cap, think Alabama wins by two TDs, AJ's going-away present.

No NBA plays, as none of the match-ups fit the under criteria.

Jan 2 recap:

1-3, -2.8 units
Total:
3-4, -1.8 units

Lost three one goal games, what can you say? I usually don't experience three solid road plays losing like that in one night. SJ, as posted, was an auto play, easy cash, wish they were all like that. Glad I stayed away from the NCAAF - as I posted, hard to cap motivation. Tough showing by Alabama. Highly doubt that happens if Alabama was playing for something.

Jan 3
NBA: Toronto/Washington u193.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1
Line already falling, down from 195 open, expect it to fall even lower

NBA: LAC/Dallas u204, -110, 1.1 to win 1
Only down a half point from open, again, I expect it to fall lower

NHL: Anaheim -1, -180, 1.8 to win 1
Auto play, see SJ yesterday

Lean Chicago again on the ice and Pittsburgh if the line rises any higher. But, will probably stay away after last night's road debacles. Lean OSU and Mizz in NCAAF tonight as well but, holding off. Both are in same position as Alabama, losing Conf. Championship games after a dominating season. N.Illinois also lost a conf. champ. game they were expected to win and went on to lose a bowl game.

Goodsy, I accepted.

Jan 3 recap:

2-1, +1.9 units
Total:
5-5, +0.1 units

Should have bet both my hockey leans. Oh well.

Jan 4

NCAAF: Houston +1.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1
I have the spread at Hou -10, so, not sure what I am missing other than SEC preference.

NHL: Boston -1, -150, 1.5 to win 1
Auto play, see SJ, Ana above.

More to come. Busy morning, I am sure mindtides will be upset that these two games started like 2 minutes ago.

Jan 4 cont.

NHL: SJ -120, 1.2 to win 1
Bit of a close call, borderline play.

NFL: Ind ml +115, 1 to win 1.15
Should maybe take the points but, I have Indy winning outright.

Two NBA, a few more NHL and the Philly game in a third post.

Jan 4 cont.

NHL: St.L -1, -120, 1.2 to win 1
These are auto plays at these numbers.

NBA: Atlanta/Chicago u191, 1.1 to win 1
This number has surprisingly stayed steady all day.

NBA: LAC/San Antonia u204.5, 1.1 to win 1
Down from 205.5 and higher at some shops

Staying away from the late NFL game, lean Saints. Also lean NYR in NHL but, too borderline.

Jan 4 recap:
4-3, +0.75 units
Total:
9-8, +0.85 units

Jan 5

NHL: Pit -1, -145, 1.45 to win 1
Winnipeg goalies have some terrible numbers against the Pens

NBA: Toronto/Miami u198.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1
Lets hope the roll continues with Raptors unders

NFL: SD +13.5/ GB +9.5, 6.5 tease, 1 to win 0.8
I have left 5 leans on the table already, since Jan 1. Been nervous about borderline plays. SD is another. If they don't cover, I'll be back to bet GB straight-up; they have great numbers against SF.

Jan 5 recap:
1-1, -0.3 units
Didn't expect Pitt to give up 5 goals at home. Also, had a terrible number on Tor/Mia. Hopefully anyone following got it higher, missed by 0.5 a point. That's what I get for having  a life and locking in at noon.
Total:
10-9, +0.55 units
Generally pretty happy after five days. Left 5 leans on the table, too chicken to bet them. Missed two NBA unders by less than a basket. And had three NHL games swing late. Not worried, kinda happy. Might be able to increase unit size earlier than expected.

Jan 6

NHL: Montreal -170, 1.7 to win 1
Price great numbers against Fla, Thomas mediocre numbers vs Habs

NHL: Col -1, -125, 1.25 to win 1
Auto play at these lines

Had FSU but, the line has run away, and is now -10.5 at bet365. Should have bet it earlier but, I like to leave bets as late as I can b/c much of my strategies are line based. This one is a little too high. Might land right on FSU -10.

Hey BigTenWatto sent a PM the other day.. just checking to see if it was received your end.. cheers

Jan 6 recap:
1-1, -0.25 units
Total:
11-10, +0.3 units
Can't believe Colorado blew that game against a Calgary team that had lost four in a row and scored 1 (ONE) goal in those four games.

Jan 7

NBA: Tor/Ind u187, -120, 1.2 to win 1
Line dropped to 186.5, and should go to 186 flat or lower

NBA: Wash/Char u190.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1
I expect this line to fall too, its held steady all day

NHL: StL -200, 2 to win 1
Steep price, should win going away

NHL: Pit -125, 1.25 to win 1
Fleury has good numbers vs. Vancouver, Lack in for 'Couver

NHL: LA -1, -125, 1.25 to win 1
Auto play at this number

Really want to play SJ but, I can't find who is playing net for them and I would be all over PHx but, Greiss is playing and has mediocre numbers vs Calgary.

Got it, will send reply today.

Jan 7 recap:
4-1, +2.75 units
Guess I can't complain about LA s/o loss after the Pens comeback.
Total:
15-11, +3.05 units

Jan 8

NBA: Tor/Det u196, 110, 1.1 to win 1
Opened 198.5, already down 2.5 pts. I usually don't lock in so early but, that is a dramatic move so early.

NBA: Dal/SA u208.5, -110, 1.1 to win 1
Opened 209, don't expect it to fall much further, SA has put up over 105 on their own each of last five games.

NBA: Ind/Atl u188.5, -110, 1.1 to win1
Also opened higher, at 190.

Chicago is really close in my NHL system. Lundqvist does has really good numbers against them though, so staying away.

Jan 8 recap:
2-1 +0.9 units
Total:
17-12, +3.95 units
Don't know how that Raptors game flew over.

Jan 9

NHL: Fla -125, 1.25 to win 1
Last time these two teams played, Enroth saved 44 of 45 shots. Doubt that happens again.

NHL: StL -185, 1.85 to win 1
System is bucking a trend tonight. Most teams don't sweep the Alberta roadtrip. We'll see if my system outranks the cold Alberta winter.

NHL: SJ -185, 1.85 to win 1
Check out Niemi's numbers against Detroit; insane.

Jan 9 recap:
3-0, +3 units
Total:
20-12, +6.95 units

Jan 10

NHL: Pit -170, 1.7 to win 1
Even with Zatkoff in net for the Pens, the numbers still work

Was/Ind under would have been a play too but, I did not get my bet in in time. Oh well.

Jan 10 recap:
0-1, -1.7 units
Total:
20-13, +5.25 units
All you can say is wow. Fourth time the Pens have given up 3 goals in the 3rd, and the they do it in back-to-back games.

Jan 11

NHL: TB +116 (used Pinny, Bet365 pulled game) 1 to win 1.16

Will have plenty more tonight.

NBA: Tor/Brk u190, 1.1 to win 1

Those NBA lines have dropped again since I posted at 2pm.

NHL: Ott +105, 1 to win 1.05
I don't like Nashville's tender.

NHL: Col +115, 1 to win 1.15
Varlamov much better numbers vs Minn than Backstrom vs Col.

NHL: Pit -200, 2 to win 1
Brutal line at Bet365, should shop elsewhere. Both Col and Pit have burned me in last week, lets hope for a good night.

No NFL unfortunately. Saints and Colts just missed the system parameters.

Hey BigTenWatto.. I found Si1ly's website.. interesting reading. Though I could not find info re: his NBA Under system.. 

Jan 11:
5-1, +4.26 units
Total:
24-14, +9.51 units
Wow, hockey is rolling. 4-0, with 3 dogs cashing.

Jan 12

NHL: Was -1, -125, 1.25 to win 1
Even with Grubauer against Miller, I like it. Buff going to get outshot about 40-20, we'll see if Miller can steal it.

Will have one or two more in NHL, no NBA or NFL.