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5 Run Chases 2015

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Posted: #1
Hey guys, I've been getting a ton of PM's and emails asking about these systems, so here are the details:
I'm going to be running Cisco's under 470 5 run chase & a variation of the over 525 5 run chase.
The original Over 525 chase was developed by Flywareagle, but I play it using the same exact runs the Cisco's system. 

Thanks Cisco & Flywareagle for sharing these with us. 

There will be some plays in April, but the systems will pickup steam in May. 

Like in the previous years, everything will be tracked and posted on Google Sheets with periodic updates on here. Here is the link:

https://tinyurl.com/krbces6

Cisco will run the 5 run chase all games and Streaks systems, the link to his sheet can be found in my sheet.  
 
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Posted: #2
Under 470 past results:
5 Run under 470 Past Results
201072-0 +72
201154-0 +54
201273-1 +47
201378-1 +56
201475-1 +36

Over 525 Past Results:
5 Run over 525 Past Results
200897-1 +52u
200982-1 +37u
201097-0 +97u
201172-1 +27u
201295-0 +95u
201391-2 +30.3u
201483-1 +49.7u

 
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Posted: #3
Sorry for the multiple posts, but I was getting a 7800 word limit error when I tried fit it into a single post. Clearly it is less then 7800 words. 

Here is the link to the 2014 thread: 
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101837176
 
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Posted: #4
 
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Posted: #5
Here is a link to the backtesting for the Over 525 chase. I tried playing around with different variation & labby lines. Have not found a strategy that is more profitable then straight martingale. 

I originally backtested all games, but found 4 losses in the past 5 years in April. I added a filter to play only teams that made the playoffs the previous years to eliminate those losses. We use a similar filter in the under 470 system where we only play the bottom 10 teams using Pinnacle's World Series odds. 

Please feel free to download it into Excel and play around with it. 
https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o
 
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Posted: #6
Hi Bart, I intend to tail these systems, i have 2 questions though, what is the average line, and what % of the total bankroll should a unit be (keeping in mind there will be multiple chases)?

Thanks and Bol to us!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:

Hi Bart, I intend to tail these systems, i have 2 questions though, what is the average line, and what % of the total bankroll should a unit be (keeping in mind there will be multiple chases)?

Thanks and Bol to us!

Hey, 

The average line would be around -150. 
The average loss loses 38 units (high of 48, low of 26). 

I would recommend a unit size of 1-1.5%, but I all depends on how you play. For example, some guys only put down 5u on Game 4's. 
Last year we had a lot of Game 1 and Game 2 winners & some people were playing 2%. 
 
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Posted: #8
Thank you for this.
 
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Posted: #9
Hey Bart,

A couple of questions:

First, do you have the backtested results for Cisco's 5 Run Chase for all teams?

Second, do I understand correctly that you are going to be posting the 5 Run Win Chase using the same filters as Cisco?  If so, that is cool because I was going to be posting it (I am also going to use Cisco's filters), but I really won't have the time this year.  So, I hope I understand that correctly.

Good luck.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

Here is a link to the backtesting for the Over 525 chase. I tried playing around with different variation & labby lines. Have not found a strategy that is more profitable then straight martingale. 

I originally backtested all games, but found 4 losses in the past 5 years in April. I added a filter to play only teams that made the playoffs the previous years to eliminate those losses. We use a similar filter in the under 470 system where we only play the bottom 10 teams using Pinnacle's World Series odds. 

Please feel free to download it into Excel and play around with it. 
https://tinyurl.com/ma9b64o

Another question, have you backtested the 5 Run Win system with a lower winning pct?  I just arbitrarily chose .525 when I came up with this system (at first I considered .530 which is .030 over .500 since Cisco's pct is .030 under .500, but lowered it to .525 to increase plays).  Have you checked using .520, .510 or just over .500?  Just curious.

Also, you say you backtested using all teams, but had 5 losses in April over the past 5 years.  Does that mean that the results were favorable using your new filter or by waiting til May?

Thanks again.


 
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Posted: #11
Fly, yes I will post the plays this year on the spreadsheet.
It is profitable to play with the new rules (playoff teams in April).

I will play around with winning %'s to see if we can squeeze extra units out of the system.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

I tried playing around with different variation & labby lines. Have not found a strategy that is more profitable then straight martingale.

I have only done martingale in the past, but have been strongly considering doing a labby system this year.  Do you think a labby system would be very profitable....especially as compared to a martingale.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:


I have only done martingale in the past, but have been strongly considering doing a labby system this year.  Do you think a labby system would be very profitable....especially as compared to a martingale.

I had a quick look and no matter how I sequenced the labby numbers, there were 4-5 consecutive losses. 

Hey Labby Nerds, how do you handle days where there are 5 or 6 games? 
Are majority of you running regular labby lines, or aggressive lines? 
 
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Posted: #14
labby nerd - haha! I just play all the games on the line for the same amount....when games are over i cross off winners and then add in my losers. I want to play aggressive labby but I'll be playing several systems and with the juice I think that might get too crazy. good chance I play splitting losses - chop losses in half and drop half on line 1 and other half on end of line 2. might not be quite as profitable but lines won't get crazy. 

example
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
bet line 1: la dodgers -190 ...38 to win 20... loss

new line
10-10-10-10-19
10-10-10-10-19

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

labby nerd - haha! I just play all the games on the line for the same amount....when games are over i cross off winners and then add in my losers. I want to play aggressive labby but I'll be playing several systems and with the juice I think that might get too crazy. good chance I play splitting losses - chop losses in half and drop half on line 1 and other half on end of line 2. might not be quite as profitable but lines won't get crazy. 

example
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
bet line 1: la dodgers -190 ...38 to win 20... loss

new line
10-10-10-10-19
10-10-10-10-19

So Stick if you were being aggressive with your labby line, your new line would be 10-10-10-10-38.  Is that it and you'd carry it forward to the next chase series?
 
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Posted: #16
I run multiple lines....game 1s have one line, game 2s have a separate line...so in this example if I ran aggressive labby it would look like this:

example
line 1: 10-10-10-10
line 2: 10-10-10-10
bet line 1: la dodgers -190 ...38 to win 20... loss

line 1: 10-10-10-29
line 2: 10-10-10-29

so as you can see instead of dropping the loss onto the end of the line you add it to the last number. this way you keep your line short...but your lines can get big quick.
 
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Posted: #17
Can someone explain this system to me in simple terms?
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by BooTee:

Can someone explain this system to me in simple terms?


Try reading the rules tab in the spreadsheet.

I can answer any questions you have after that.
 
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Posted: #19
I was looking at your spreadsheet and noticed an error in the rules tab.

In the rules for the 5 Run Win Chase (over .525), line 22 needs to be changed from "A team will be eliminated if they lose by 5+runs during a skip game & gets over .470" to "A team will be eliminated if they lose by 5+runs during a skip game & gets UNDER .525.
 
Great job on the spreadsheet.
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by BooTee:

Can someone explain this system to me in simple terms?

I can't find the rules either , bro , oh well .. Bit confusing without knowing how it works and what to look for .. Good luck guys ! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

I run multiple lines....game 1s have one line, game 2s have a separate line...so in this example if I ran aggressive labby it would look like this:

example
line 1: 10-10-10-10
line 2: 10-10-10-10
bet line 1: la dodgers -190 ...38 to win 20... loss

line 1: 10-10-10-29
line 2: 10-10-10-29

so as you can see instead of dropping the loss onto the end of the line you add it to the last number. this way you keep your line short...but your lines can get big quick.

Been away from the computer, Stick, sorry for the belated thanks.  Your clarification duly noted and makes a lot sense, too.  Have a prosperous mlb season!
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:


I can't find the rules either , bro , oh well .. Bit confusing without knowing how it works and what to look for .. Good luck guys ! 

You may not be looking at the correct spreadsheet.  You should be looking at the one listed in the first post.  There is a tab on the bottom that is labeled RULES.

Here is the link again:

https://tinyurl.com/krbces6
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:


You may not be looking at the correct spreadsheet.  You should be looking at the one listed in the first post.  There is a tab on the bottom that is labeled RULES.

Here is the link again:

https://tinyurl.com/krbces6

Much better ... thank you !!!!! Will the plays be posted somewhere ??? I will follow at first and then do on my own !! Appreciate it bro !!
 
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Posted: #24
Plays will be posted in the cave tab here
:https://tinyurl.com/krbces6

and cisco's tab "today" here:
https://tinyurl.com/ohzuknz
 
 
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Posted: #25
Thanks again Cisco and Bart
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