Posted:
#1
Posted: 12/12/2006 12:18:40 AM
This is a copy of an old post from dec 2004 but it is very helpful, I just dont have the time to do the paperwork this year to figure it out myself. Any help would be appreciated.
Amazing Bowls trends 12/22/04 3:53 pm
by: EclipseSpyder Msg: 301364
I found this on the other sports forum, and i would like to share with everyone in here, and see what u guys think:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First let me say this trend worked well last 2 years but who knows how it will do this season. Just thought it was worth tracking
Teams that played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher last bowl season went 12-1-1
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Example
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28
Just so you understand what the numbers mean: In the above game Miami Ohio was -13 for their bowl game. They were ranked 5th and played the 75th toughest schedule in the regular season. Lville was ranked 43rd and played the 81st toughest schedule. So this would qualify as a play on Miami Ohio because they played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher. the final score was 49-28 Miami so they did cover
2003 - 2004 BOWL GAMES/RESULTS
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28 1-0
NCSt -11 (35/47) Kansas (73/76) ...NCST 56-26 2-0
Ore St +2'(33/54) N. Mex(49/70) ...Oreg St 55-14 3-0 dog 1-0
VA -3(29/30) Pitt (36/44) ... .....Virg 23-16 4-0
TTech -10(31/25) Navy (61/114) ...TT 38-14 5-0
UTAH -2'(20/50) SO MISS (34/66) ...Utah 17-0 6-0
MIZZ +3(38/58) ARK (22/27) .....Ark 24-14 7-0
BC +2'(40/34) COL ST (55/69) ....BC 35-21 8-0 dog 2-0
IOWA +4(13/19) FL (37/41) .....Iowa 37-17 9-0 dog 3-0
OK ST +3(27/65) MISS (17/43) ....Miss 31-28 9-0-1
CLEM +5 (25/42) TENN (15/24) ....Clem 27-14 9-1-1
TUL +7(57/84) GA TECH (54/10) ....Geo Tech 52-10 10-1-1
MICH +7(10/23) USC (1/12) ....USC 28-14 11-1-1
K ST -7(14/77) OHIO ST (7/13)....Ohio St 35-28 12-1-1 dog 4-0
you can see it was pretty impressive. Overall it was 12-1-1 and the dogs also went 4-0 in both outright wins and against the spread
Now lets look at all the bowl games from last season:
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Mem-3 (39/96) No. Tx (42/87) ...Memphis 27-17
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28 1-0
NCSt -11 (35/47) Kansas (73/76) ...NCST 56-26 2-0
TCU +10 (21/80) Boise (4/98) ....Boise 34-31
Ore St +2'(33/54) N. Mex(49/70) ...Oreg St 55-14 3-0 dog 1-0
Hou +11(62/72) Haw (50/83) ...Hawaii 54-48
Nwestern +6 (67/35) BG (26/105) ...BG 28-24
Cal +3(51/11) Va Tech (32/60) ...Calif 54-49
VA -3(29/30) Pitt (36/44) ... .....Virg 23-16 4-0
Neb -3(18/40) Mich St (48/29) ...Neb 17-3
TTech -10(31/25) Navy (61/114) ...TT 38-14 5-0
UCLA +3(64/9) Fres St (46/73) ... Fresno 17-9
Tex -9'(8/31) Wash St (16/16)....Wash St 28-20
WISC +3(52/15) AUB (30/48) ....Aub 28-14
MIN -5'(19/63) ORE (44/28) ......Minn 31-30
UTAH -2'(20/50) SO MISS (34/66) ...Utah 17-0 6-0
MIZZ +3(38/58) ARK (22/27) .....Ark 24-14 7-0
BC +2'(40/34) COL ST (55/69) ....BC 35-21 8-0 dog 2-0
IOWA +4(13/19) FL (37/41) .....Iowa 37-17 9-0 dog 3-0
WV +4'(41/26) MARY (11/64) ....Mary 41-7
PUR +3'(24/21) GA (12/22) .....Geo 34-27
OK ST +3(27/65) MISS (17/43) ....Miss 31-28 9-0-1
CLEM +5 (25/42) TENN (15/24) ....Clem 27-14 9-1-1
TUL +7(57/84) GA TECH (54/10) ....Geo Tech 52-10 10-1-1
LSU +6'(2/38) OK (3/3) ....LSU 21-14
FSU -2(9/1) MIA (6/14) .....Mia 16-14
MICH +7(10/23) USC (1/12) ....USC 28-14 11-1-1
K ST -7(14/77) OHIO ST (7/13)....Ohio St 35-28 12-1-1 dog 4-0
I posted this to show if you played all the higher ranked teams you would of went 25-3 straight up . The only teams to lose were Virg Tech, Texas and Tenn.
or
21-6-1 ATS. Losers Virg Tech, Texas, Tenn, Hawaii, BG, Boise/ Miss-Ok tied
Here is this years list. Your list might vary as it seems everyone has a different ranking but this will be pretty close:
RANK + SOS BOTH HIGHER
North Texas (52/116) vs. Southern Miss (49/61) WIN
Georgia Tech (47/13) vs. Syracuse (55/64)
Cincinnati (50/46) vs. Marshall (53/94)
Wyoming (60/83) vs. UCLA (43/25)
UAB (37/77) vs. Hawaii (56/90)
Fresno State (18/97) vs. Virginia (17/54)
Toledo (23/95) vs. Connecticut (40/100)
Oregon State (39/9) vs. Notre Dame (48/20)
Alabama (45/35) vs. Minnesota (44/28)
Purdue (25/44) vs. Arizona State (21/23)
Louisville (4/71) vs. Boise State (7/107)
Miami (15/7) vs. Florida (29/57)
Wisconsin (14/56) vs. Georgia (12/16)
Florida State (16/30) vs. West Virginia (30/81)
Michigan (11/22) vs. Texas (6/4)
Southern Cal (2/45) vs. Oklahoma (1/14)
RANK HIGHER ONLY
Memphis (24/73) vs. Bowling Green (19/102)
Oklahoma State (26/18) vs. Ohio State (28/10)
Iowa State (59/49) vs. Miami OH(33/99)
Colorado (42/12) vs. UTEP (35/89)
N. Carolina (54/1) vs. Boston College (32/79)
New Mexico (38/69) vs. Navy (31/93)
California (8/63) vs. Texas Tech (22/6)
Northern Illinois (36/113) vs. Troy (46/105)
Texas A&M (34/8) vs. Tennessee (20/36)
LSU (10/65) vs. Iowa (13/38)
Utah (5/98) vs. Pittsburgh (27/82)
Auburn (3/51) vs. Virginia Tech (9/31)
You can see the first play would have been on S. Miss because they were higher ranked and played a tougher schedule and they won. Next up would be Georgia Tech
Now should this trend not continue please don't blame me. Nothing is for sure. I just thought this trend was worth watching and if you like a team that fits than it might help you make a decision
Good luck on your bowl picks
Amazing Bowls trends 12/22/04 3:53 pm
by: EclipseSpyder Msg: 301364
I found this on the other sports forum, and i would like to share with everyone in here, and see what u guys think:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
First let me say this trend worked well last 2 years but who knows how it will do this season. Just thought it was worth tracking
Teams that played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher last bowl season went 12-1-1
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Example
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28
Just so you understand what the numbers mean: In the above game Miami Ohio was -13 for their bowl game. They were ranked 5th and played the 75th toughest schedule in the regular season. Lville was ranked 43rd and played the 81st toughest schedule. So this would qualify as a play on Miami Ohio because they played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher. the final score was 49-28 Miami so they did cover
2003 - 2004 BOWL GAMES/RESULTS
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28 1-0
NCSt -11 (35/47) Kansas (73/76) ...NCST 56-26 2-0
Ore St +2'(33/54) N. Mex(49/70) ...Oreg St 55-14 3-0 dog 1-0
VA -3(29/30) Pitt (36/44) ... .....Virg 23-16 4-0
TTech -10(31/25) Navy (61/114) ...TT 38-14 5-0
UTAH -2'(20/50) SO MISS (34/66) ...Utah 17-0 6-0
MIZZ +3(38/58) ARK (22/27) .....Ark 24-14 7-0
BC +2'(40/34) COL ST (55/69) ....BC 35-21 8-0 dog 2-0
IOWA +4(13/19) FL (37/41) .....Iowa 37-17 9-0 dog 3-0
OK ST +3(27/65) MISS (17/43) ....Miss 31-28 9-0-1
CLEM +5 (25/42) TENN (15/24) ....Clem 27-14 9-1-1
TUL +7(57/84) GA TECH (54/10) ....Geo Tech 52-10 10-1-1
MICH +7(10/23) USC (1/12) ....USC 28-14 11-1-1
K ST -7(14/77) OHIO ST (7/13)....Ohio St 35-28 12-1-1 dog 4-0
you can see it was pretty impressive. Overall it was 12-1-1 and the dogs also went 4-0 in both outright wins and against the spread
Now lets look at all the bowl games from last season:
TEAM line RANK/SOS score
Mem-3 (39/96) No. Tx (42/87) ...Memphis 27-17
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81) ...Mia-OH 49-28 1-0
NCSt -11 (35/47) Kansas (73/76) ...NCST 56-26 2-0
TCU +10 (21/80) Boise (4/98) ....Boise 34-31
Ore St +2'(33/54) N. Mex(49/70) ...Oreg St 55-14 3-0 dog 1-0
Hou +11(62/72) Haw (50/83) ...Hawaii 54-48
Nwestern +6 (67/35) BG (26/105) ...BG 28-24
Cal +3(51/11) Va Tech (32/60) ...Calif 54-49
VA -3(29/30) Pitt (36/44) ... .....Virg 23-16 4-0
Neb -3(18/40) Mich St (48/29) ...Neb 17-3
TTech -10(31/25) Navy (61/114) ...TT 38-14 5-0
UCLA +3(64/9) Fres St (46/73) ... Fresno 17-9
Tex -9'(8/31) Wash St (16/16)....Wash St 28-20
WISC +3(52/15) AUB (30/48) ....Aub 28-14
MIN -5'(19/63) ORE (44/28) ......Minn 31-30
UTAH -2'(20/50) SO MISS (34/66) ...Utah 17-0 6-0
MIZZ +3(38/58) ARK (22/27) .....Ark 24-14 7-0
BC +2'(40/34) COL ST (55/69) ....BC 35-21 8-0 dog 2-0
IOWA +4(13/19) FL (37/41) .....Iowa 37-17 9-0 dog 3-0
WV +4'(41/26) MARY (11/64) ....Mary 41-7
PUR +3'(24/21) GA (12/22) .....Geo 34-27
OK ST +3(27/65) MISS (17/43) ....Miss 31-28 9-0-1
CLEM +5 (25/42) TENN (15/24) ....Clem 27-14 9-1-1
TUL +7(57/84) GA TECH (54/10) ....Geo Tech 52-10 10-1-1
LSU +6'(2/38) OK (3/3) ....LSU 21-14
FSU -2(9/1) MIA (6/14) .....Mia 16-14
MICH +7(10/23) USC (1/12) ....USC 28-14 11-1-1
K ST -7(14/77) OHIO ST (7/13)....Ohio St 35-28 12-1-1 dog 4-0
I posted this to show if you played all the higher ranked teams you would of went 25-3 straight up . The only teams to lose were Virg Tech, Texas and Tenn.
or
21-6-1 ATS. Losers Virg Tech, Texas, Tenn, Hawaii, BG, Boise/ Miss-Ok tied
Here is this years list. Your list might vary as it seems everyone has a different ranking but this will be pretty close:
RANK + SOS BOTH HIGHER
North Texas (52/116) vs. Southern Miss (49/61) WIN
Georgia Tech (47/13) vs. Syracuse (55/64)
Cincinnati (50/46) vs. Marshall (53/94)
Wyoming (60/83) vs. UCLA (43/25)
UAB (37/77) vs. Hawaii (56/90)
Fresno State (18/97) vs. Virginia (17/54)
Toledo (23/95) vs. Connecticut (40/100)
Oregon State (39/9) vs. Notre Dame (48/20)
Alabama (45/35) vs. Minnesota (44/28)
Purdue (25/44) vs. Arizona State (21/23)
Louisville (4/71) vs. Boise State (7/107)
Miami (15/7) vs. Florida (29/57)
Wisconsin (14/56) vs. Georgia (12/16)
Florida State (16/30) vs. West Virginia (30/81)
Michigan (11/22) vs. Texas (6/4)
Southern Cal (2/45) vs. Oklahoma (1/14)
RANK HIGHER ONLY
Memphis (24/73) vs. Bowling Green (19/102)
Oklahoma State (26/18) vs. Ohio State (28/10)
Iowa State (59/49) vs. Miami OH(33/99)
Colorado (42/12) vs. UTEP (35/89)
N. Carolina (54/1) vs. Boston College (32/79)
New Mexico (38/69) vs. Navy (31/93)
California (8/63) vs. Texas Tech (22/6)
Northern Illinois (36/113) vs. Troy (46/105)
Texas A&M (34/8) vs. Tennessee (20/36)
LSU (10/65) vs. Iowa (13/38)
Utah (5/98) vs. Pittsburgh (27/82)
Auburn (3/51) vs. Virginia Tech (9/31)
You can see the first play would have been on S. Miss because they were higher ranked and played a tougher schedule and they won. Next up would be Georgia Tech
Now should this trend not continue please don't blame me. Nothing is for sure. I just thought this trend was worth watching and if you like a team that fits than it might help you make a decision
Good luck on your bowl picks
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