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2013 NFL Betting System #1

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I've got a couple systems that I'm going to track over the season. This is the first one that I will be using. 

Visitors Score

First off, I remove the best and worst scoring performances on the road. I then do the same thing for home games. I average the road performance with total performance to get a 'PF' score. I then calculate the standard deviation for all 32 NFL teams to determine how many standard deviations a team's performance was above or below the NFL average. 

To determine the visitor's score, I use the following formula:

PF + (# of SD above/below the NFL average for home team's defense x # of points for 1 SD)

For example, Baltimore has a 'PF' score of 20.9. Denver's defense has a 'PA' score of 17.1, which is 1.23 SD below the average. The value of 1 SD was 4 pts last year.

Thus, 

Baltimore's predicted score = 20.9 + (-1.23 * 4) = 16

I then do the reverse for the home team. 

After crunching all the numbers, I compare my spread to the line. Whatever team is undervalued, I will side with them. The whole teams I am omitting, will be Kansas City & Buffalo (new coach, new QB) and Philadelphia (new system that is largely unknown). 

Here are my week 1 picks (spread, total according to Bet365) 

Baltimore @ Denver (-8.5, 49.5)       Denver/Under
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7, 43.5)   Pittsburgh/Under
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3, 54)        Atlanta/Over
Tampa Bay @ NYJ (+1, 41)             Tampa Bay/Over
Seattle @ Carolina (+3, 45)              Seattle/Under
Cincinnati @ Chicago (-3.5, 45)        Cincinnati/Under
Miami @ Cleveland (+1.5, 39.5)       Cleveland/Under
Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5, 47)          Minnesota/Over
Oakland @ Indianapolis (-7, 48.5)     Indianapolis/Under
Green Bay @ SF 49ers (-4, 50)        SF/Under
Arizona @ STL (-6, 40)                    Arizona/Under
NYG @ Dallas (-2.5, 49)                  NYG/Over
Houston @ San Diego (+3, 46)         Houston/Under

Cheers




 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
Canuck:

I wish you well with your system.  Looks promising, however have you done any back testing on this.  

Since the season hasn't begun yet you still have some time to do so, and then can decide if this is worth pursuing or doesn't pan out. Would hate to see you lose money on this when a little back testing might confirm or dispute your theory.

Either way, best of luck to you!  
 
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Posted: #3
No, I've done a ton of data collection over the past few months (I'm exhausted by it and I'm actually dreaming of numbers at night) and have taken a 'reflective' approach. Now, I'm testing it to see if it works for forecasting. Unfortunately, I don't have the time (between work and a young family) to back test the system. I actually don't plan on spending any more than pocket money on it this year and am using it primarily for evaluation purposes. 

Cheers
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
I'd also be careful with Cleveland...new HC, new OC, new DC, switching from 4-3 to 3-4, new kicker, just to name a few...
 
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Posted: #5
I like your picks and the system.  GL.  I have a feeling you will come out of Week 1 in the green.
 
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Posted: #6
Although some of your picks didn't come through - I followed selectively on multi-team teases - made some coin.

Hope you keep posting.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Week 1 Results

ATS = 5-6-1
O/U = 5-7-1

Will post week #2 picks ... 

In the event that I forgot, I'm posting Thursday's pick. 

My numbers have NE at -14 (current line at Bodog -13) and a total of 48.5 (current line at Bodog -43.5). Once again, I'm not betting using this system. Even if I was, my numbers and the spread would be too close to bet. 
 
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Posted: #8
So canuck - which systems are you betting?


 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So canuck - which systems are you betting?



I'm actually playing a "teaser system". It involves avoiding certain numbers and selecting games between certain ranges. As long as I continue to do well in it, I'll use it for this year. If any of other systems do well, I might implement them next year. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
So how does your teaser system work?
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by canuck10:


I'm actually playing a "teaser system". It involves avoiding certain numbers and selecting games between certain ranges. As long as I continue to do well in it, I'll use it for this year. If any of other systems do well, I might implement them next year. 

Canuck - I love teasers - any way you can post your teaser picks?  I would love to know how your teaser system worked - but if you don't want to share it - I understand, but can you at least post the picks
 
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Posted: #12
That's all I'm doing too, pretty much.  I made a spreadsheet that has the winning percentages of tease spreads, separated home and away, from the last 10 years.  I got curious when I've read that teasing across 3s, 6s, 7s etc. did this percentage.  I just did it myself.  One of the best plays is taking a road favorite at -6, teasing to 0.

Check it out:


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ainr1eDtdk5ZdE1JZlQtV2ZVeWp6cFZLMW5VWV96RVE&usp=sharing

Of course, we've got to match the correct teases.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Rest of week 2 picks:

CLE @ BAL (-7, 44) BAL, O

TEN @ HOU (-10, 43) HOU, O

MIA @ IND (-3, 42.5) IND, U

STL @ ATL (-6, 47.5) STL, U

MIN @ CHI (-6, 42)  CHI, O

NO @ TB (+3.5, 47) TB, O

JAK @ OAK (-6, 39) JAK, O

DEN @ NYG (-4.5, 55) NYG, O

SF @ SEA (-3, 44.5) SEA, U

PIT @ CIN (-7, 41) PIT, O


 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
For teasers, I back-tracked to 2005 and determined the record for home favorites & underdogs, along with away favorites and underdogs. Once I determined which ones did the best with a 13-pt, 10-pt, 7pt, 6.5pt, and 6pt tease, I looked at specific spread numbers. Obviously staying off certain numbers is helpful (as "ties" often result in a lost wager), but there are certain spreads that do significantly well. The problem is the frequency of occurrence.

Just as an example, away teams have gone 30-2 with a 13-pt teaser and home teams have gone 28-4. If you bet $1 on every possible combination of a 4-team tease, you would have won $17,994.50 in Week 2 and $3,441.50 in week 1. However, back-testing the system wasn't as promising so I'd advise caution. The math is below:


Number of possible combinations: 32!/(4!28!)

= 32 x 31 x 30 x 29 / 4 x 3 x 2 

= 863 040 / 24

= 35 960


Note: Don't know how it would be possible to place this many bets unless there is a built-in program that the website uses to do it.

30/32 x 29/31 x 28/30 x 27/29 = 30 x 29 x 28 x 27 / 32 x 31 x 30 x 29

      = 28 x 27 / 32 x 31

= 756 / 992

= 76.209677%

0.76209677 x 35 960 x 1 = $27, 405 (winning tickets)

(1-0.76209677) x 35 960 x 1.1 = $9, 410.50 (losing tickets)

Week 2 Profit = $17, 994.50

28/32 x 27/31 x 26/30 x 25/29 = 28 x 27 x 26 x 25 / 32 x 31 x 30 x 29

= 491 400 / 863 040

= 0.56938265

0.56938265 x 35 960 x 1 = $20, 475.00

(1-0.56938265) x 1.1 = $17, 033.50 

Week 1 Profit = $3, 441.50 


 
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Posted: #15
Week 2 Results
ATS: 4-8
O/U: 5-7

YTD
ATS: 9-14-1
O/U: 10-14-1

Week 3 Picks (added a HF advantage factor dependent on team and most recent history of performance at home):

BAL @ HOU (+3, 45),  BAL, O
NYG @ CAR (+1, 47) CAR, U
DET @ WAS (PK, 49) WAS, U
SD @ TEN (-3, 44) SD, O
TB @ NE (-7, 44) NE, O
GB @ CIN (+3, 49.5) CIN, U
STL @ DAL (-4, 47.5) STL, O
CLE @ MIN (-7, 41) MIN, U
ATL @ MIA (-3, 44.5) ATL, U
IND @ SF (-10, 46.5) SF, U
JAK @ SEA (-19, 41) SEA, O
CHI @ PIT (+3, 40.5)  CHI, U
OAK @ DEN (-15.5, 49.5)  DEN, - 

















 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Week 3 Results:

ATS  7-5-1 
O/U  4-8 

YTD
ATS: 16-19-2
O/O:  14-22-1

Thursday Night

SF @ STL (+3, 42)  Pick: STL, O
 
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Posted: #17
Post #14


I only did the teaser spread for 6pts.  Gonna have to do it for the other 4 spreads too.  I've been doing well with these percentages, I think I missed on one....San Fran last week.
 
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Posted: #18
Rest of week 4 picks ...

PIT v. MIN (+3, 42) PIT, - 

CIN v. CLE (+4, 43) CIN, U

IND v. JAK (+9, 42.5) IND, U

SEA v. HOU (+3, 42) SEA, - 

CHI v. TB (-3, 48) CHI, O

DAL v. SD (+2, 47) DAL, U

WAS v. OAK (+3.5, 44) WAS, O

NE v. ATL (-1.5, 49.5) NE, U

MIA v. NO (-7, 48) NO, U


 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
... oh yeah, and I messed up Thursday's pick by including a HF advantage when one was already included in the formula (thus, I gave too many points to STL and would have selected SF)
 
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Posted: #20
Week 4 Results

ATS: 6-4
YTD: 24-23-2

O/U: 6-4
YTD: 21-26-1

Week 5 Picks ...

NO @ CHI (+1, 50) CHI, U

NE @ CIN (-1, ) NE, U

DET @ GB (-7, 54) GB, U

SEA @ IND (+3, 44) SEA, U 

BAL @ MIA (-3, 43) BAL, U

PHI @ NYG (-3, 53.5) NYG, O

JAK @ STL (-12, 41) JAK, O

DEN @ DAL (+9, 57) DAL, O

HOU @ SF (-7, 42) HOU, O

 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Week 5 Results

ATS: 3-6
YTD: 27-29-2

O/U: 6-3
YTD: 27-29-1

Week 6 - Thursday Night Game

NY Giants @ Chicago (-8) Pick: NYG

My "created" line has it at -8.5, so pretty close. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Rest of week 6 picks ...

GB @ BAL (+3, 47.5) Pick: GB, Over

STL @ HOU (-9) Pick: STL, Over

CAR @ MIN (-3) Pick: CAR, Over

PIT @ NYJ (-1) Pick: PIT, Under

JAK @ DEN (-27) Pick: DEN, Over

TEN @ SEA (-14) Pick: SEA, Under

NO @ NE (-2.5) Pick: NE, Under

WAS @ DAL (-6) Pick: WAS, Over

IND @ SD (+1) Pick: IND, Under

 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Rest of picks ...

NE @ NYJ (+4, 44) Pick: NE, O

SD @ JAK (+9, 45.5) Pick: JAK, O

CIN @ DET (-3, 47) Pick: CIN, O

BUF @ MIA (-9, 43) Pick: BUF, U

CHI @ WAS (-1, 50) Pick: CHI, U

DAL @ PHI (-3, 55) Pick: DAL, O

STL @ CAR (-6, 42.5) Pick: STL,  U

TB @ ATL (-9, 43) Pick: TB, U

SF @ TEN (+4.5, 40) Pick: SF

HOU @ KC (-7, 39.5) Pick: HOU, U

CLE @ GB (-10, 46 ) Pick: CLE, U

BAL @ PIT (-1, 41) Pick: BAL, U

DEN @ IND (+7, 57) Pick: DEN, U

MIN @ NYG (-3.5, 47) Pick: MIN

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Week 7 ATS: 3-11
YTD: 35-45-2

Week 7 O/U: 6-7
YTD: 38-40-1

Week 8 Picks

CAR @ TB +6 Pick: CAR, N/A

DAL @ DET (-3, 51) Pick: DAL, O

SF @ JAK (+16, 40.5) Pick: SF, U

CLE @ KC (-7.5, 39.5) Pick: KC, U

MIA @ NE (-6.5, 45.5) Pick: NE, U

BUF @ NO (-11, 48) Pick: NO, O

NYG @ PHI (-5, 51) Pick: PHI, U

NYJ @ CIN (-6, 41.5) Pick: CIN, U

PIT @ OAK (+2, 40.5) Pick: PIT, U

ATL @ ARI (-2.5, 45.5) Pick: ATL, O

WAS @ DEN (-11.5, 58) Pick: DEN, O

GB @ MIN (+8, 47.5) Pick: MIN, O

SEA @ STL (+11, 42.5) Pick: SEA, U

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