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2013-14 Bowl System Picks

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Participants:

Posts: 164

RalphyBoy

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 22

Posted: Dec. 19, 2013 - 5:11 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Fanch:

I'd like to echo cg2's question. When you say you don't play the blue games, do you mean the blue and black ones, or you only play green and red, as in you would only play Buffalo, Arizona, Bowl Green, Fla state, and possibly Tulane? Ty!

Having followed him the past 2 seasons the answer is yes, he only plays the green and red. The blue and black would fall into small plays if you choose. They havel

RalphyBoy

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 22

Posted: Dec. 19, 2013 - 5:13 PM ET #27

They have some value, just not as much as the green and red. The green and red were 6-0 last year, but nothing is definite.

timgopack

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 28

Posted: Dec. 19, 2013 - 8:30 PM ET #28

to help everyone out with a little information I know as it pertains to Florida State and Auburn if you listen to the behind the bets podcast with Chad Millman on ESPN he interviewed and does interview every week the manager of the one of the sports books in Las Vegas I can't remember which one right now but the reason some books have auburn not getting as many points is because they're doing it to try and balance their bets because they have a lot of money invested in the future bets on Auburn that were anywhere from 500 to 1000 to 1 that they will have to pay if auburn Wins so they make the line lower to get more money on Florida State. Gratefulbets is awesome and I hope you have another great year like you did last year! He really knows his stuff!

timgopack

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 28

Posted: Dec. 19, 2013 - 8:35 PM ET #29

Pardon my English with run on sentences & stuff I'm writing this on my phone in a hurry on break :) At some places buffalo winter from 3 point favorite to a 2 points under dog!!

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 12:34 AM ET #30

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>UPDATE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In my hurry to get these picks out, I just noticed that I placed the wrong info for Arizona…it should be Az ST

AzSt…-14…..27………27………………….13………13

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 12:56 AM ET #31

I'm very sorry for that Arizona mistake. They are listed next to each other so I just screwed up. I know some of you have already placed your bets. I'm in the same boat, as i just returned this evening from making my plays on the bowls and NFL. They are not playing until Monday after Christmas so hopefully you have time to switch your bets. Parlay players might have a chance to hedge their bet if the parlay is still alive with a Buf and BGr win…I'm assuming no one is playing Tulane as the line moved from RED to BLUE right after visited the bowls.

AzSt was at -12.5 today at MGM Grand.

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 12:58 AM ET #32

I'm assuming no one is playing Tulane as the line moved from RED to BLUE right after I listed the bowls.

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 1:42 AM ET #33

While working on the Bowl system, a few games, that although do not fit the system criteria, stood out as interesting plays…totally subjective.

Tulane -2.5…..see post #19

OrSt -3….played a tougher road schedule and scored better

KsSt -4…offense's trending in opposite direcrtions

UCLA -7…a hot team vs. a mediocre team, also, 1,000 miles closer for a home field advantage?

Iowa +7…Mettenberger out, and Iowa is already a blue pick

TxAM -12…Duke QB out?

NTx -6.5…home field

Hou +3…Vandy QB out…blue play

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 2:24 AM ET #34

NFL Wk #16

I spent a good deal of time back testing the past 5 weeks of NFL with those systems I've been posting.

First off, here is what I have as a final tally (with some minor changes to the original posted plays) for most of those plays I had posted.

Original system:

Wk#……W/L

11…....…4-1

12………6-0

13………3-3

14……....3-2

15………4-2

total……20-8 = 72%

New system

Wk#……W/L

13………5-1

14………3-2

15………3-1

total……11-4 = 74%

Utilizing both systems (not just picking the teams from both systems that are the same), I back tested a few filters and this is the result.

Wk#……W/L

13………3-1

14………5-2

15………7-2

total……15-5 = 75%

Again, these are very small samples but they are derived from my base system of stats that have a longer history of being good predictors. However, maintaining a mid 70's % level will be a challenge.

Here are this week's picks using that back tested combo system which has the highest win% and best ROI.

Car -3

StL -4.5

Cin -7...I did not play this in Vegas… 4 books that I checked had it at -7.5

Den -10

SD -10

SF -12.5

I am listing the regular plays and the new system plays for tracking purposes, only.

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 2:30 AM ET #35

I am listing the regular plays and the new system plays for tracking purposes only.

Regular plays

Den -10

SD -10

SF -12.5

New (former) plays

Miami -2.5

Dallas -3

Den -10

NYG +9

NE +2.5

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 11:19 AM ET #36

Yes, I only play the strongest groups RED and GREEN….that's why I list the selection process and show the BLUE games as some games might move from BLUE to RED, or vice versa, as the lines change.

CG2A

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 250

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 11:23 AM ET #37

Ok to confirm there are 4 official plays (buff, bowling green, Arizona St & Fl St)

The others are small plays if played (Tulane, wash, K St, Tex, Wis, Iowa, Houston)

Thanks for all the help and happy holidays to everyone!!
CG

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 12:37 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by CG2A:

Ok to confirm there are 4 official plays (buff, bowling green, Arizona St & Fl St)

The others are small plays if played (Tulane, wash, K St, Tex, Wis, Iowa, Houston)

Thanks for all the help and happy holidays to everyone!!
CG

Roger that.

I did lay small bets on OrSt -2.5, Wash -3, and KsSt -3.5. These are not part of the system plays.

glefkb01

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2554

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 1:16 PM ET #39

r u officially off Tulane Grateful?

glefkb01

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2554

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 1:21 PM ET #40

i mean....did u bet it as a red play or small like a blue play

sfg8

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 628

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 2:04 PM ET #41

grateful..thxs for posting and all your hard work..bol.. and happy and prosperous new yr...you're the best...

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 3:40 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

r u officially off Tulane Grateful?

I'm glad to hear from you. What's happening with your parlay?

Yes, I did not play Tulane. I'm conflicted because I see another angle with Laf's QB out which, by default, should give Tulane more value to overcome that 2 points, but in the end I'm not playing it, unless the line drops to -1 (but that's a moot point as I'm not flying back to Vegas until next Thurs). I did make some small plays on other college games, as I posted above, but not Tulane.

glefkb01

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2554

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 6:49 PM ET #43

i asked my local a question about raising my limits....and just mentioned i accidently put Az instead of az state....he cancelled it and was able to change it, so right now i have the 4 big plays and 2 open. so hopefully the NFL plays come thru or the lines switch to include some more of your plays.

seems like a short list this year.

gratefulbets

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2004

Posts: 5547

Posted: Dec. 20, 2013 - 7:33 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

i asked my local a question about raising my limits....and just mentioned i accidently put Az instead of az state....he cancelled it and was able to change it, so right now i have the 4 big plays and 2 open. so hopefully the NFL plays come thru or the lines switch to include some more of your plays.

seems like a short list this year.

Glad to hear you could change it. Well, it was 6 last year, and 5 this year until Tuesday. Maybe another line move adds a new game. I'm also tracking something else that I didn't want to introduce to the Forum but if it does well the first 15 games or so, I'll list the rest. Meanwhile, let's see how these first 2 games do.