2 UNDERDOGS STRATEGY

Question

HELLO EVERY BODY IM NEW IN COVERS.COM (JUST SING IN THIS WEEK), ALSO NEW IN SPORT BETTING STRATEGY (BEGAN THIS NBA SEASON), I CREATE MY BANKROLL PLAYING POKER ON THE NET FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS, THEN GET DISAPPOINTED 2 TIMES FROM 2 DIFFERENTS POKER SITES, SO I QUIT FOR POKER (JUST FOR NOW) I USE TO SPORT BET BUT NOT ONLINE, AND JUST DO IT OCCASIONALLY.

I REALIZE SOON THAT ONLINE I CAN MAKE THE 2 TEAMS OF A CONTEST BECAME UNDERDOGS, HAVING NO CHANCES TO LOOSE OR VERY SMALL CHANCES WHEN THE THING GOES VERY WRONG

I HAVE DONE THIS JUST A COUPLE OF TIMES (LIKE 7 TIMES), AND 3 TIMES I´VE BEEN WRONG BUT LUCKY ENOUGHT.

YOU MAKE A PICK VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING (LIKE 4 AM TO 5 AM) A BIG FAVORITE TO COVER THE SPREAD AND ADD -0.5 POINTS HIS SPREAD CONVERTING IT INTO AND UNDER DOG, EX:

MAGICS +8 -110

SPURS -8 -110

IF THE SPURS ARE FAVORITE ON THE PUBLIC AND IN THE EXPERTS CONSENSUS, ITS VERY PROVABLY THE THE SPREAD MOVE UP. SO YOU PICK THE SPURS +8.5

PICK 1: SPURS +8.5 +105

AND WAIT TILL THE LINE MOVE A COMPLETE POINT

MAGICS +9 -110

SPURS +9 -110

THEN MAKE THE PICK FOR THE MAGICS -0.5

NOW YOU HAVE:

PICK 1: SPURS -8.5 +105

PICK 2: MAGICS +8.5 +105

AS I SAID THE LINE COULD NOT MOVE AT ALL AND YOU MAY HAVE TO TAKE THE RISK, EX:

PICK 1: SPURS -8.5 +105

PICK 2: MAGICS +7.5 +105

WITH THE RISK OF IF THE SPURS WIN BY 8 YOU LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY (HAVE HAPPENS TO ME 3 TIMES BUT I´VE BEEN LUCKY

donfernando · Answer

HELLO EVERY BODY IM NEW IN COVERS.COM (JUST SING IN THIS WEEK), ALSO NEW IN SPORT BETTING STRATEGY (BEGAN THIS NBA SEASON), I CREATE MY BANKROLL PLAYING POKER ON THE NET FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS, THEN GET DISAPPOINTED 2 TIMES FROM 2 DIFFERENTS POKER SITES, SO I QUIT FOR POKER (JUST FOR NOW) I USE TO SPORT BET BUT NOT ONLINE, AND JUST DO IT OCCASIONALLY.

I REALIZE SOON THAT ONLINE I CAN MAKE THE 2 TEAMS OF A CONTEST BECAME UNDERDOGS, HAVING NO CHANCES TO LOOSE OR VERY SMALL CHANCES WHEN THE THING GOES VERY WRONG

I HAVE DONE THIS JUST A COUPLE OF TIMES (LIKE 7 TIMES), AND 3 TIMES I´VE BEEN WRONG BUT LUCKY ENOUGHT.

YOU MAKE A PICK VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING (LIKE 4 AM TO 5 AM) A BIG FAVORITE TO COVER THE SPREAD AND ADD -0.5 POINTS HIS SPREAD CONVERTING IT INTO AND UNDER DOG, EX:

MAGICS +8 -110

SPURS -8 -110

IF THE SPURS ARE FAVORITE ON THE PUBLIC AND IN THE EXPERTS CONSENSUS, ITS VERY PROVABLY THE THE SPREAD MOVE UP. SO YOU PICK THE SPURS +8.5

PICK 1: SPURS +8.5 +105

AND WAIT TILL THE LINE MOVE A COMPLETE POINT

MAGICS +9 -110

SPURS +9 -110

THEN MAKE THE PICK FOR THE MAGICS -0.5

NOW YOU HAVE:

PICK 1: SPURS -8.5 +105

PICK 2: MAGICS +8.5 +105

AS I SAID THE LINE COULD NOT MOVE AT ALL AND YOU MAY HAVE TO TAKE THE RISK, EX:

PICK 1: SPURS -8.5 +105

PICK 2: MAGICS +7.5 +105

WITH THE RISK OF IF THE SPURS WIN BY 8 YOU LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY (HAVE HAPPENS TO ME 3 TIMES BUT I´VE BEEN LUCKY

donfernando · Answer

PLEASE GIVE ME OPINIONS

orhane · Answer

this is nothing else than creating a surebet. i can look up for you how often the line was &#x2B;/- 0.5 from the closing line. so you have a calculation if it is worth it long term.

orhane · Answer

I have 10038 games in my NBA DB.184 finished on the line.163 finished &#x2B;0.5186 finished -0.5So 533 games are loosing if you don&#x27;t catch the line movement.It is 5,3 percent nearly the same as your projected profit per bet. Now the main point is, can you cache the line movement more often in comparison to loosing games.

bruin95 · Answer

???????????????????????????????????????????

donfernando · Answer

thanks orhain for your help, im kind of rookie in sport betting, thats the help i was looking for

as i say if you look for a game very early in the morning that its a big favorite on the public and in the expert and sharp bettors, if almost sure that the line its going to move against that team, there you sale the -0.5 points, and wait till the line move 1 complete point

donfernando · Answer

how do you manage a NBA DB???what software you use???where you download the games???

orhane · Answer

i can look this up later. will message you the results. when do you decide that the fav is big enough (-7 points or more or anything else?) do home or away matter?

orhane · Answer

i scraped data. and i use the spreadsheet from degengamble. and transfer them into my own.

orhane · Answer

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&amp;sub=101371839

donfernando · Answer

thanks orhanewhen i say big favorite, i mean in the consensus when the bets are going to one side, ex:pacers   -6    -110                 87%knicks   &#x2B;6   -110                 13%in this case, if this lines are open lines, the most probably its that the line move against the pacers at least -0.5 or -1 points, (pacers  -6.5    -110,    or pacers -7    -110)

orhane · Answer

is there a border 5 or more? or favored by 6 is minimum?

donfernando · Answer

the number in the spread isn&#x27;t important the important here are the percent of the bets in one side, meaning that the spread is going to move to against the team with most %bets

orhane · Answer

ok i can manage it with percentages too. i got the consensus% here fro covers.com does this help?

donfernando · Answer

if you can search for the consensus % in the open lines and in the last hour, it would be a great help. thats all the information we need.

how open and ended the lines in matches that start with 85% or more on a team???

donfernando · Answer

i think the research should be ok only in this NBA season

2 UNDERDOGS STRATEGY

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