2 team streak chase

I am back with a new chase that i have been working on,. Basically i have been looking to capitalize on streaks of Overs/Unders after 2 that go to 3 and 4.. queries on sportsdatabase show that over the years in MLB and the NBA  ..streaks of 2 go to 3 about 50% of the time ..and streaks of 3 go to 4 about 50% of the time ..so i am basically chasing to 5 levels by betting to win 3% of my roll on each new chase..if that loses level 2 is to win 6% plus juice..etc.this allows for 5 levels of betting. First level starts as follows

Team 1 has played 2 straight Unders..bet under 1.5%

Team 2 has played 2 straight Over..bet over   1.5%

25% of the time both will lose..and i start a level 2 chase

25% of the time both of the teams will win and the chase ends increasing my roll by 3% ..then i start a new one

50% of the time i will get a split ..i then bet the team that won to continue the streak to 4 and bet to win the 3% plus juice ..a win ends the chase with a 3% profit..a loss means i start a 2nd level 2 team chase ..

based on the numbers above there is a 25% chance of each chase ending as a loss  (both teams losing day one ..or one team winning 3rd bet but losing fourth bet)

The odds of something with a 25% chance of occuring, happening 5 times in a row are

(.25)^5 = 0.0009765625

meaning  9 times out of 10,000 i should lose..or in other words i should win 99.9% of chases..

If anyone catches a mistake in my math please let me know.. i have been doing this a few days now and have completed 2 chases..will start posting from here on.. i know my write up is confusing..hopefully it becomes clearer as i go.

So my starting roll for this was $543.21 ...before todays bets i was at about $580 ..also i am running 2 different chases at a time..increasing my "to win" amount by 3% with each new chase..

Chases 1 and 2 are completed

Chase 3 (this is day 2 of the chase...split the first 2 games..Houston got the under so they are the play today to hit a 4th straight  under to end the chase)

Houston Under  8.5   -106     $17 to win $15.98

Chase 4 (this is the start of a brand new chase)

Rockies Over  9.5   -108   $10 to win $9.30

Jays Over 8  -102   $9 to win $8.82

This will work year round going from MLB to NBA ...and likely hockey as well ..although Sportsdatabase doesn't have Hockey queries .. a roll can grow very quickly increasing 3% each time ..so we will see what happens

 

 

 

 

 

 

the posting curse hit last night going 0-3..

 

both chases now at Level 2

Chase 3 - level 2

Yankees Over 9.5 +100  $18.40 to win $18.40

Rangers Under 8.5 -110  $21 to win $19.11

Chase 4 - level 2

Pirates Over 9 -102   $17 to win $16.66

Dodgers Under 9.5  -110  $18 to win $16.38

 

 

 

 

*Chases 1 and 2 completed

Chase 3 - level 2 ,day 2

got a split yesterday with the Yankees hitting the over..looking for them to end the chase today with 4th straight over

Yankees Over 10  +112   $36 to win $40.32

Chase 4 - level "2.5"

got a push and a loss yesterday so its not quite a level 3..hence the "2.5"  2 new teams today

Jays Under 8  -115    $19 to win $16.53

Florida Under 9.5  -120  $20 to win $16.60

gl to u ....i will watch with interest!

Cleared chase 4 ..total profit so far on completed  chases is $50.37 ..and increase of 9.37% to the roll ..Yankees got a push on chase 3..2 new teams today

Chase 3 - level 2 day 3

San Fran Over 6 . -105   $21 to win  $19.95

T-Bay Over  8.5  -105    ...$21 to wo $19.9

Chase 5 - level 1,day 1 ..(to win $18.34)

Milwuakee Over 9.5   -118     $11 to win $9.35

Washington Under 7.5  -110    $10 to win $9.10

 

- If i can hit both games on either of these chases i will start chase 6 later on Arizona over and Minny Over..

 

 

Chase 3- level 3- day 1

Pittsburgh Under 8.5  -118    $50 to win $42.50

Texas Over 8.5  -110        $46 to win $41.86

Chase  5  Level 1  - day 2

Milwuakee Over 9 -118    $22 to win $18.70

 

Nice night going 3-0 and clearing both chases ..now have profitted $86.52 ..which is a 15.93% increase to the bankroll in 8 days ..promising start.. 2 new chases start today

Chase 6 (to win $19.42) - Level 1 , Day 1

Atlanta Over  9  -114     $11 to win $9.68

Cubs Under 8.5  -110  $11 to win $10.01

Chase 7 (to win $20) - Level 1, day 1

Florida Over  8.5  -112    $12 to win $10.68

Washington Over 8.5  -110   $11 to win $10.01

Adding a 3rd chase

Chase 8 (to win $20.04) Level 1, day 1

Detroit Under 9 +105       $10 to win $10.50

Cincinattti Over 8   -112  $12 to win $10.68

Seems like a good idea neilsy, good luck

Chase 6  level "1.5" , day 2

- got a void bet and a loss so 2 new teams today

Boston Over 9  +100          $15.21 to win $15.21

Dodgers Under 8 -108         $17 to win $15.81

Chase 7  level 1 , day 2

got a split yesterday, play is on Florida to hit a 4th straight over and end the chase

Florida Over 8   -130          $27 to win  $20.79

Chase 8   level 1 day 2

-got a split yesterday, play is on Detroit to hit a 4th straight under and end the chase

Detroit  Under  9.5  -125       $27 to win $21.60

Cleared Chase 6 last night .bringing profit from cleared chases to $105.94  , which is a 19.5% increase in the bankroll in 10 days.

Chase 7 - level 2 - day 3

Florida couldn't get the 4th straight over so this chase goes to level 2 with 2 new teams

Tampa Bay  Over 9.5  -125   $20 to win $16

Arizona Under 10   -123         $20 to win $16.20

Chase 8 Level 2 - day 3

Detroit couldn't stay under and end this chase..so this one as well goes to level 2 with 2 new teams

Minnesota  Under 7.5   -125    $21 to win $16.80

Atlanta Under 7.5   -112       $18 to win $16.02

Chase 9 (to win $20.64) -Level 1 day 1

- new chase starting today

Jays Over 9   -110      $11 to win $10.01

Cubs Under 8  -115   $12 to win $10.44

 

 

Neilsy;

Love the system.  I looked at the odds of losing a Level 5 chase, and I think it's higher than what you think.  I don't have the math formulas to back me up, but I grabbed a scratch pad and started with 1000 hypothetical chases.  Based on each game having a 50/50 chance of winning, you win both games on Day 1 25% of the time, or 250 chases.  Day 2 after splitting the games would also net 250 wins.  So after 2 days, you have 250 wins on Day 1 and 250 wins on Day 2.  You'd also have 500 chases that lost, which would continue to Level 2.  If you won half of those as you did in Level 1, and continued to win half of the chases that progressed to the next level, 64 chases out of 1000 would progress to Level 5.  You'd win 32 of them, and you'd lose 32 of them.  That's 32/1000, or 3.2%, or a winning percentage of 96.8%, not 99.9%.  If your bankroll is $500, you'll net 3%, $15, 968 times out of 1000, and lose $465 plus juice 32 times out of 1000.  If I have missed something, especially the dollars won and loss, please say something.

Hey Budman

 Although your example makes perfect sense to me, and appears correct. ..the way i came up with my % was:

ways  to lose 1)  both losses on level 1   25% of the time

                       2) get a split day one  .. 50% of the time and then on the 2nd day lose 50% of the time  (.50 )^2 = .25

either way there is a 25% chance of losing... and this drives my formula of - (.25)^5 = 0.0009765625

So ... I mean i can't find a flaw in either of our logic..definetely would like to get some input from anyone else that might see a flaw..

I think I see the flaw.  You say, "either way, you lose 25% of the time."  I believe you should say, "both will occur 25% of the time."  Adding 25% and 25% is 50%, which is what my scratch pad tells me.

Example 1 will occur 25% of the time

                  AND

Example 2 will occur 25% of the time

Let me once again type the phrase, "I think." 

yes, but thats exactly my point.. either example 1 OR example 2, or a combination of 1's and 2's  must happen 5 times in a row for me to lose ..both examples  have a 25% chance of happening ...and the odds of something with a 25% chance of happening, 5 times in a row..are  9 out of 10,000 ...I dunno ..i am really not a math guy ..

I guess to exlpain further..an individual  chase.lets say level 1 . cannot end with both example 1 AND example 2 ..its one or the other  ..  then level 2 can only end with one or the other...etc..etc.

I'm not saying that both WILL occur, I'm saying that 25% of the time Example 1 will occur and you'll lose that level and 25% of the time Example 2 will occur and you'll lose that level.

Anyway, after a long day @ work, my brain's probably failing me again.  Thanks for all your hard work, and keep up the posting.

Good luck!!

chase 7 - level 2,day 4

Tampa Bay Over 9 -125    $44 to win $35.20

chase 8 -level 3- day 4

Philly Under  8.5  -102                 $36 to win $31.28

Cincy Under 8.5  -102                  $36 to win $31.28

 

chase 9 - level 1 day 2

Cubs Under 6.5 -105       $23 to win $21

 

Neilsy;

How did you pick Cin and Phi for Chase 8?  Do you do additional handicapping on the qualifying teams?  I thought you might pick either Det or KC since they've both gone over in the last two games, and they're playing each other.

Sorry for all the questions.

Hey Budman ... i really don"t handicap it at all..since its just a numbers based system...doesn't really matter what the 2 teams are...so for new teams i just try to take teams with the least amount of juice...(Cincy and Philly both -102)

Neilsy-

Just looking at this quickly I like the basis...but here is the flaw in your math (at least for MLB).  You've already seen it in just a couple days...pushes.  There are a lot of pushes on totals in MLB.  I don't know the percentage but my guess is it is somewhere around 5%.  You can't ignore that from your possible outcomes...it changes your calculations for chances of winning or chances of losing.

Also, you have to factor in the streak of the opponent as well in your calculations if you want to do this fairly.  If the Yankees have 2 straight unders and they play Toronto with 2 straight overs, is it a no play?  What about a situation where the Yankees go to level 2 and then face a team that is already at level 2 or level 3 but in the other direction?  That will happen often.  You have to think about the opponents streak...you system will conflict itself often, meaning your bankroll will take losses that aren't really "chase losses".

Just a couple things to think about off the top of my head...but I like where you're going with this.  Using numbers can be very powerful.  Good luck.

Leprechaun

Thanks Leprechaun... ya, i am not sure how to factor in the pushes in the math ,,,also, i am only playing 3 teams at a time...so they are the streak i am focusing on..their opponents streak..(or non streak)..doesn't really factor in..(although maybe i should look at it when picking teams...)

Cleared chase 8 yesterday ..now 7 chases cleared for a profit of $125.98..and increase of 23% to the roll..todays plays

Line 7- Level 3 , day 5

Yanks Under 9.5 -110    $44 to win $40.04

San Fran Over 7 -125     $50 to win $40

Line 9- Level 2 , day 3

Mets Under 8  +108     $25 to win $27

Dodgers Over 7.5 -102   $28 to win $27

 

Get out the SHOP BROOM!!!!    4-0, GREAT work!!!

Looking forward to your next post!