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Here is the system I came up with and will use this season. Let me know what you think..
The idea is to play a 2 team parlay everyday, with each parlay having at least an 8-1 payout and your bankroll being 14 days worth of plays. In order to get 8-1 on a 2 team parlay, you will need both teams to be +200 or somewhere in that neighborhood. If you take a +170, you would have to take about a +235. The 2 teams need to be near +400 combined.
Before you start thinking you have to take huge underdogs everyday and it won't work, let me tell you what I have found. About 50% of MLB games are decided by 3 or more runs. Another 25% are decided by 2 runs. Only 25% are decided by 1 run. When you lay runs, the odds go crazy. You can have a team that is -120 go to +240 if you lay 2.5 runs. If half of the games everyday on the board have odds like this, and you only have to hit 2, the percentages are very much in your favor to grind a winner out before you go broke.
Here is how my particular grind will work. I will start with just over $2000, looking to net $500 on my 1st win. This $2000 will get me 14 days worth of plays.
Day 1, I will bet $63 on the above parlay scenario. If it hits, I'm up at least $500. If it loses, the next day, I would bet $71. That would win me at least $568. $63 I lost the previous day and a $500 net. If that loses, I would bet $80. That would win me $640. $134 I had been down plus a $500 net.
You would just keep grinding it out until you hit 1. Then you would start over, either trying to win $500 again or incorporating your $500 net into your bankroll, giving you a higher starting number to bet.
Go to any site that shows scores and you will see how many teams win by more than 2 runs. True odds should net you a winner every 8 days based on the 50-75% cover rate, depending on how many runs you lay. Throw in your own handicapping of games and to me, it seems like a very solid grind.
Anyone that can convince me otherwise?
The idea is to play a 2 team parlay everyday, with each parlay having at least an 8-1 payout and your bankroll being 14 days worth of plays. In order to get 8-1 on a 2 team parlay, you will need both teams to be +200 or somewhere in that neighborhood. If you take a +170, you would have to take about a +235. The 2 teams need to be near +400 combined.
Before you start thinking you have to take huge underdogs everyday and it won't work, let me tell you what I have found. About 50% of MLB games are decided by 3 or more runs. Another 25% are decided by 2 runs. Only 25% are decided by 1 run. When you lay runs, the odds go crazy. You can have a team that is -120 go to +240 if you lay 2.5 runs. If half of the games everyday on the board have odds like this, and you only have to hit 2, the percentages are very much in your favor to grind a winner out before you go broke.
Here is how my particular grind will work. I will start with just over $2000, looking to net $500 on my 1st win. This $2000 will get me 14 days worth of plays.
Day 1, I will bet $63 on the above parlay scenario. If it hits, I'm up at least $500. If it loses, the next day, I would bet $71. That would win me at least $568. $63 I lost the previous day and a $500 net. If that loses, I would bet $80. That would win me $640. $134 I had been down plus a $500 net.
You would just keep grinding it out until you hit 1. Then you would start over, either trying to win $500 again or incorporating your $500 net into your bankroll, giving you a higher starting number to bet.
Go to any site that shows scores and you will see how many teams win by more than 2 runs. True odds should net you a winner every 8 days based on the 50-75% cover rate, depending on how many runs you lay. Throw in your own handicapping of games and to me, it seems like a very solid grind.
Anyone that can convince me otherwise?
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