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2 game home chase system

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Posted: #1

play three game series at home chase for a win after first loss.during interleague play chase only american league teams playing at home after first losss.

last year this system went 228 wins and  46 losses for a two game chase  thats 83% win rate.

this year so far its at 43 wins and 5 losses for a two game chase thats 89% win rate. 

I'm going too be tracking the plays the rest of the season in this forum you  can fade or follow if you want.

todays picks  may 20 first game of series chase

    oakland

    philadelphia

     milwaukee

 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3

totally screwed up I will post correct plays

may 20 first game of chase

houston

cincinatti

tampabay

 
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Posted: #4
I don't understand, but I look forward to seeing if this works...GL
 
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Posted: #5
these are results i got from backtesting this system. only regular season... 

year/final result/w-l/w perc./max. units/min. units

2000  -1,48u     194-54  78,23%  26,05u   -8,26u
2001   7,28u     233-66  77,93%  10,38u  -39,43u
2002  25,62u    197-59  76,95%  54,89u    -3,94u
2003  50,40u    208-50  80,62%  50,40u    -4,41u
2004   -0,69u    212-62  77,37%  0,69u    -27,86u
2005  19,62u    221-57  79,50%  47,16u     0,00u
2006   -5,15u    200-56  78,13%  13,93u  -30,75u
2007   -2,37u    215-55  79,63%  22,73u  -13,04u
2008  19,29u    220-54  80,29%  25,93u  -15,79u
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

these are results i got from backtesting this system. only regular season... 

year/final result/w-l/w perc./max. units/min. units

2000  -1,48u     194-54  78,23%  26,05u   -8,26u
2001   7,28u     233-66  77,93%  10,38u  -39,43u
2002  25,62u    197-59  76,95%  54,89u    -3,94u
2003  50,40u    208-50  80,62%  50,40u    -4,41u
2004   -0,69u    212-62  77,37%  0,69u    -27,86u
2005  19,62u    221-57  79,50%  47,16u     0,00u
2006   -5,15u    200-56  78,13%  13,93u  -30,75u
2007   -2,37u    215-55  79,63%  22,73u  -13,04u
2008  19,29u    220-54  80,29%  25,93u  -15,79u

What application are you using to backtest?
 
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Posted: #7
Noticed TB won their first game of the series, however, the current series is a 4-game series.  Do you completely discredit the first game of a 4-game series regardless of the outcome?
 
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Posted: #8
my own...
i have access database and a code to go through all that and it spits out those numbers 

2000 16,94u   146-35  80,66%  35,24u:0,00u
2001 15,26u   144-37  79,56%  18,36u:-13,09u
2002 32,59u   136-29  82,42%  45,27u:-9,45u
2003 44,73u   136-23  85,53%  44,73u:-12,36u
2004  7,25u    139-37  78,98%  11,40u:-11,87u
2005 12,34u   155-35  81,58%  39,98u:-1,83u
2006   0,89u   139-36  79,43%  20,97u:-14,21u
2007 -11,89u  145-38  79,23%  12,94u:-16,55u
2008  16,56u  168-39  81,16%  19,99u:-5,25u

this is what i get with filter...  wperc at home>wperc away OR HL10=>GL10
 
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Posted: #9
access database with results, money lines and OU lines for seasons 2000-2008... 2009 coming soon
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:

totally screwed up I will post correct plays

may 20 first game of chase

houston

cincinatti

tampabay


Ok, that makes more sense now. You're chasing (or playing) the home team when they lose the first game of a 3-game series regardless of their home record or situation. 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by S_A_I_N_T_S:


Ok, that makes more sense now. You're chasing (or playing) the home team when they lose the first game of a 3-game series regardless of their home record or situation. 

thats right

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by prof8t:

Noticed TB won their first game of the series, however, the current series is a 4-game series.  Do you completely discredit the first game of a 4-game series regardless of the outcome?

I'm only doing three game series

 
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Posted: #13
yesterdays winners are

houston 

cincinatti


today  may 21 chase

Tampabay

enopugh to recover losses and profit


 
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Posted: #14

we are on a roll  chase 3-0
   
Tampabay  

 
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Posted: #15
no plays today

hopefully some tommorow

 
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Posted: #16
I like it A LOT
 
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Posted: #17
todays games may  23

first game of chase   bet to win one unit

nyy

bos

oak
 
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Posted: #18

nyy

todays games may 24

second game of chase

oak  and bos
 
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Posted: #19
I heard the announcers saying how long its been since BoSox lost a series at home, I forget now, but I wonder how long since they were swept?  I never go against Bos @ home its either on them or no play.

That team is built for that ballpark.  BOL jv
 
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Posted: #20
both oak and bos won  

may 25 there are no games today

6 wins  0 losses  chase
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by MONEYshotS:

I heard the announcers saying how long its been since BoSox lost a series at home, I forget now, but I wonder how long since they were swept?  I never go against Bos @ home its either on them or no play.

That team is built for that ballpark.  BOL jv


Boston has only been swept twice at home since 2004. Impressive.
 
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Posted: #22
todays plays may 26  first game of chase

tex 
kc
laa
phi
chc
col
ari

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:

todays plays may 26  first game of chase

tex 
kc
laa
phi
chc
col
ari


 

Minn also?

 
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Posted: #24
Sorry, that is a 4 game series
 
 
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Posted: #25
For tracking purposes...

TEX +109
KC-154
LAA -181
PHI -144
CHC -149
COL -150
AZ -159

Hope they all hit 
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