Serious Streak Survivor Strategies

     Hey, Ben. It's nice to see you again and it is also nice to see that you are on a hot streak! I just read the messages here before going to bed and I saw your request. I usually don't like to give feedback because I don't like to feel responsible if someone loses a good streak on my advice. My picks can lose with the best of them and I make no claim to being a guru or wizard.

      That being said, I really like the Lakers to go in to Detroit and handle their business. The spread of -5 seems manageable to me given the way the team has been playing, especially Kobe.  Iexpect this spread to climb as the night/day wears on. The Lakers recent  history with the Pistons has seen them cover the spread in the last five meetings. The Lakers have won three in a row at The Palace of Auburn Hills by an average of 13.3 points.

      What worries me is that the spread seems too low, the pick seems too good to be true, and the public is all over it in the early hours. I feel as though I may be missing something. Of course, it may just be that the Lakers were not very good on the road in the first half of the season. I locked in in as soon as my Utah Jazz -1.5 pick won. I am sure there are other good picks to be made, but this is the one I could not look past.

     I am currently on a 3 game streak and have won 4 of my last 5 picks. On this streak, I have just looked at the board and picked the game that jumped out at me the most without looking at anything else first. From there, I research that game extensively and I usually have found my hunch to be backed by the statistics. If nothing scares me about the game too badly, then I submit it.

     Good luck with your pick, Krams, whatever you decide. If nothing agrees with you, then do not make a pick. It would definitely be better to skip than lose it all and have to start over. Again, good luck to you, my friend!

     By the way, congrats to all of you guys with the Red Stars on SFTC! (SmoothD, Krams, Booyahz, Golf, theWhitesmith, and Teeter) You guys are kicking ass and I am getting my ass handed to me over there! We have plenty of time to get it done, though. I am determined to turn it around. Good luck to the $25 Dime Club We are heating up!

@ Plisskin- good job bringing in the money bags, brother!

@ Smooth- I know it must feel awesome to get that ESPN no star monkey off of your back. Way to stick to stick to your guns! Good things are coming your way, I can feel it! Let's ride on!

Thanks bama.   I hear you on the guru/wizard thing but at the same time hearing other peoples opinions always seems helpful to me.  I know they're just opinions and i take them as that, but i also know there are really knowledgeable people in here (inlcuding you) so i do take your opinions into consideration.   

Thanks for the SFTC recognition too.  I usually suck at that.   Congrats to everyone doing well and keep it up.

I ended up choosing uconn over depaul.   Uconn NEEDS to win big today.  I think a close win doesn't do much to secure a tournament birth so i can see a win by 9+ points.  They won bye like 20+ a month ago over depaul and oriaki and drummond had decent games so the bigs will be in play again this time.

I thought about the lakers hard (thanks to bama) but i'm jaded towards them having lost on them in phoenix and in toronto recently (won in toronto but didn't cover).  Probably just need to get over my fear because it does look like a solid pick 

Here are my picks for today. SFTC-I gotta go with the Celtics. Lots of tough games on there today. The Celtics have had lots of trouble with Houston at home. I didn't know this until researched it because I was wondering why the SM put up such a obvious game IMO. Now I see why. Houston has won 8 out of 10 in Boston. With that said I'm fighting fate and putting my streak on the line with Boston because they're playing great ball right now. 

Lakers to Win by 6+ for W6 on survivor

Lakers lose in OT to the Pistons, who are the 3rd worst team in the NBA. Right pick loses again!

BamaBilly

Kony 2012 Has anybody heard about this? It's going viral. Join me in making this guy famous. Watch this  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4MnpzG5Sqc&lc=xlpCIqZPy5yhXdryMyisBVsGfeDIuuWLfDMblG8ubeY&feature=inbox

There's nothing like taking the over of 2 shitty teams (Sam Houston State and SF Austin) at 106 and watching them play the worst basketball you've ever seen and somehow miraculously still hitting the over.  W6 and 6-0-1 this month. 

South Florida -2

Kings -5

 

Booyahz- I understand your point believe me. You have valid concerns and that's why this is a different deal. They're not asking for money per se. Sure you can contribute if you want but from what I have read and heard the main thing here is the awareness and to put pressure on our government to take action on this issue. Already the pressure got to the President when he assigned 100 advisers to Uganda to assist in the capture of this monster. So I think the key here is action and not necessarily money. Even though it's on the other side of the world I believe that when true evil rears it's head we all should take part in removing it. This clown has been doing this for decades so we really need to shut his show down.

Its all good Smooth I respect you and your opinions.  When I watched it the first thing I thought of was the commercial I see every night where you can feed a child for less than a buck a day, where the kids sit there half dressed next to a puddle of dirty water with puss n boots eyes and trash everywhere.  The funny thing about that commercial is the town is always abandoned.  I have seen that commercial so many times that when I see it now I say damn them kids still didnt pick up the trash and if they wanted to they could pick a direction and go to where people actually are.  Africa has had guys like this throughout their history and Americans wont stop buying diamonds which are mined by kids like an Indiana Jones movie and are a big part of funding terrorism anf guys like this.  I just feel its time we stop trying to tell other countries how to live when this country is really fucked up and yet we have this charade of moral superiority.  I cant support American blood being spilt on African soil.  You take one out another will arise.  This is just how it is in Africa right or wrong and always has been.  

above post is actually mine Smooth.  My family member made a pick and I left it logged on their account and started my rant.

baylor/kst over was easy cheesy

The Lakers lost again last night to the Wizards, the Lakers are FADE MATERIAL AT BEST, that is either fade them or pick/bet against them. They have lost to the 3rd worst and 2nd worst teams on back to back nights!
Another team to fade is the Magic, this past Tuesday they lost 100-84 to the Bobcats, who are the worst team in the NBA. WHat I just found out was that they were ahead by 20 at one point so the Bobcats got a 36 point swing the rest of the game.

The Magic were ahead 39-19 with about 9 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter so they got outscored 81-45 during the last 33 minutes.

New Mexico -14.5

UNLV O128

New Mexico -14.5  by the hook!! sweated my balls off on that one,was a larger than normal bet,lol

 

Well let's score one for the conspiracy theorist now that it looks like Auburn basketball is under investigation for point shaving by the PG Varez Ward. I'm not sure where I had this conversation but I firmly believe that pro sports is on the up and up because of the money that the athletes make. But we have a problem in College sports in this country. Everybody knows that College athletes get paid under the table. Make it legal bring it out of the shadows and clean it up. The kids don't need much but a little would go a long  way in bringing integrity to the College sports. I don't know what dollar amount but I'm sure something like $1000-1500 month would be fine for the vast majority of these kids.

I dont think that would matter Smooth.  The schools in college are making way too much from sports and the boards of schools are greedy.  The wealth being thrown around in pro sports is sickening.  I feel there needs to be a profit cap on pro owners and athletes. If you cant make a million a year work there is something wrong with you. No human deserves to live like a god.  They can still keep charging out the wazoo but after a point the profits need to go back into the community.  I still remember the days when being an athlete was being like a doctor, you didnt get rich but it was an honorable profession.  As long as there are billions involved with TV, gambling, and being a pro there will always be corruption. The part that sucks is that betting sites and Vegas dont refund games that are proven to be fixed just look at the NBA when their refs fixed games, and I believe they still do in both pro and college hoops, they just threw one guy under the bus.  Maybe if the gambling community had to refund those bets that lost on those games then it would mean something when fixes get exposed.  I think they only get investigated because the general public got wind of it.All part of protecting profits.  Remember why Babe Ruth saved baseball? People were sick of sports being fixed and that was 100 years ago.

has anyone noticed on SFTC that props with the winning margin vs. 3 pts made or Ft's made that the tie option switches.  There might be a strategy in following those outcomes.  Why does the winning margin have the tie option sometimes and not others?  If I have time I will look back on the past results and see if I can find something.  Give me a couple days.  Yesterday was brutal