Posted:
#7551
Hey, Ben. It's nice to see you again and it is also nice to see that you are on a hot streak! I just read the messages here before going to bed and I saw your request. I usually don't like to give feedback because I don't like to feel responsible if someone loses a good streak on my advice. My picks can lose with the best of them and I make no claim to being a guru or wizard. 
That being said, I really like the Lakers to go in to Detroit and handle their business. The spread of -5 seems manageable to me given the way the team has been playing, especially Kobe. Iexpect this spread to climb as the night/day wears on. The Lakers recent history with the Pistons has seen them cover the spread in the last five meetings. The Lakers have won three in a row at The Palace of Auburn Hills by an average of 13.3 points.
What worries me is that the spread seems too low, the pick seems too good to be true, and the public is all over it in the early hours. I feel as though I may be missing something. Of course, it may just be that the Lakers were not very good on the road in the first half of the season. I locked in in as soon as my Utah Jazz -1.5 pick won. I am sure there are other good picks to be made, but this is the one I could not look past.
I am currently on a 3 game streak and have won 4 of my last 5 picks. On this streak, I have just looked at the board and picked the game that jumped out at me the most without looking at anything else first. From there, I research that game extensively and I usually have found my hunch to be backed by the statistics. If nothing scares me about the game too badly, then I submit it.
Good luck with your pick, Krams, whatever you decide. If nothing agrees with you, then do not make a pick. It would definitely be better to skip than lose it all and have to start over. Again, good luck to you, my friend!
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By the way, congrats to all of you guys with the Red Stars on SFTC! (SmoothD, Krams, Booyahz, Golf, theWhitesmith, and Teeter) You guys are kicking ass and I am getting my ass handed to me over there! We have plenty of time to get it done, though. I am determined to turn it around. 
@ Smooth- I know it must feel awesome to get that ESPN no star monkey off of your back. Way to stick to stick to your guns! Good things are coming your way, I can feel it! Let's ride on!
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