World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

for sure u dont know soccer

So van takes Argentina to win it all and they probably have a worse defense than the USA.  But he is a great capper, right? The USA has a top 10 midfield in the WC and one of the best keepers in the world.  I am not touting them to win it all and probably will do no better than the round of 16, but they are certainly not 26th or worse.  That just shows a lack of understanding of where the US team is. 

I know France has not been looking good at all but I am finding it hard to bet against them.......Uruguay play football similar to Arsenal. Short swift passes keeping the ball on the ground and its really good to watch them, the whole team moves forward ..........Uruguay are playing as a team which is what France are lacking.....Frances starting team is amazing on paper and I find it so hard to bet against them even though all signs put to 1X in their matchup against Uruguay..........On paper they rival any team.....France has good quality and depth.......If these seasoned veterens can somehow click when the pressure is on....they can hang with the best in the world......Henry, Anelka, Malouda,Cisse, Ribery, Sagna, Evra, Clichy, Gignac.....More than enough quality and experience.......Uruguay may be overwhelmed with that midfiald battle, the speed of Henry and Riberys abilty to penetrate the defense with the ball could spell trouble for Uruguay and their defense....Malouda and Anelka play together so that should help a lot and with Evra and Gallas in the back it is certainly enough experience and quality to hold off any tream....France have a history of not scoring many goals but the same is said for their opponents.......they give up very few goals..........I think this could go 1-0 to either team..........This game is a tough call...Im just not willing to bet against a team who has a history for winning at the right time.....and Henry is due for a break out toury in his career....He generally under performs on the big stage but with thte hand of god incident,,,,,,,,what more motivation does he need to prove to the world that he is one of the best in the world............Hes heading to NY RedBulls I think and hes not wanted by Barca so I think he has something to prove to himself too...He knows this is his last World Cup...........I still see France winning the group.........at worst....second........Mexico and Uruguay will not be the two who progress.........It will be france........and one of the two......IMO

Take these friendlies with a grain of salt....I see a lot of lazy, demotivated, "I dont want to get injured," styles of play.......Many teams are still cutting their squads to the required 23 men and they are putting their weakest links in the roughest possible positions to determine who stays and who goes....The coaches knows their starting 11........They are sorting out suitable replacements right now..........try to remember your thoughts before the friendlies and see what has changed...........

For me.......the friendlies have helped and hindered...........They confirmed to me that Greece suck when I thought they would do well......Paraguay and Chile really impressed me moving forward as a team and I was surprised how good they looked but I am still a bit skeptical because I know their striking is world class////but how is the defense ...will the defense hold up////

Sorry to ramble.........I dont support France by the way.......Just worried about betting on day 1.......Mexico DNB @ 1.875 is locked in........Now what to do in the France game??????????

Getting close to the start...........CANT FKN WAIT

Uh, yeah - OK.  Argentinas defense is worse than the USA.  OK.

So fine - as you keep saying they are not 26th or worse - please go back to my list and pick out 10 teams that should move below them on my power rankings.  You keep saying they are in the top 16, but in order to be there you are going to have to move some teams down.

GO.

I would move them above Australia (16) or Switzerland (15) and maybe even Greece (14) on your list.  I don't really want to break down each team as I don't have the time or inclination and I am not some "rah rah GO USA!" guy.  I just think you severely underestimate the USA and where they stand in the world order of teams.

For example, how can you rank them below Mexico?  They have owned Mexico for the past 4 years and I do not see how you can say Mexico is ranked above them in your "power rankings."

I don't mean anything personal, but I just think you have missed the boat with how good the USA team is.  They certainly have issues on defense, but all it takes is for a couple of those guys to step up and Howard to play like he can and the USA is in the round of 16.

Group C:  The day after the draw, one of the English tabloids had the headline (descending vertically) England, Algeria, Slovenia, Yanks – spelling out EASY.  They are right.  England will cruise through this group – but I don’t see a bright future for the three lions after that.  England, odds-wise – IMO are one of the most overrated teams in this tournament.  They are the third favorite at about 6-1 – without a scent of a defense.  Their defense – to put it nicely – is a mess and will be their downfall.  We all know Rooney can score, and the midfield is above average – but there will be a game in the knockouts when they give up 3+ goals and it will be lights out.  But they benefit from the easiest matchups in the group stage possible – and will cruise earning 9 points with ease – which will set them up to be very overpriced in the knockouts – and I expect one of my biggest wagers of the tournament will be on them to lose one of those games.  England are my first “Kim Kardashian” team in this preview – great up front but terrible in the rear.  The USA is a mess, has injuries, lack of midfield play, cant hold possession, and worst of all a defense that is a wreck.  On the good side – the USA has goalkeeping – but that wont be enough.  Losing games like the 4-2 loss against the Czech B side will continue here.  I don’t see much hope.  They shouldn’t advance, and if they do, it will only because of the ineptitude of Slovenia and Algeria.  Slovenia qualified against a very good Russian side in a playoff on the away goals rule – by playing their brand of sit back and wait.  This team is very stingy at the back, and plays a counter attacking style that only allowed 4 goals against in 10 games of qualifying.  Algeria surprised Egypt to get here – and knocked out media darling Ivory Coast out of the ACN back in January.  Little known, underrated, and potentially dangerous.

Handicapping analysis and bets:  There is no way England doesn’t win this group.  Im uncomfortable laying -320, but did it anyway for 2 units.  I also took the USA NOT to advance at +112 (3 units) – I will take my chances with Slovenia and Algeria – I feel like Im getting 2 of 3 evenly matched teams at even money.  I hope England just racks it up and wins every game by multiple goals – setting up a huge underdog opportunity in the knockouts for their opponents…..

Predicted Group C Finish (country, points):

1.  England 9

2.  Slovenia 2

3.  Algeria 2

4.  USA 2

One other question.

Did you get Japan for 0 points at +360, or is that a typo? I see it at one of my books for +550 right now. I know you shop for the best price, and I know you wouldn't have made this play if you didn't see value in it. So if you did feel there was value at +360, I'm thinking about hitting it relatively hard at +550.