Posted:
#151
Vanzack World Cup threadThanks again for all the hard work and keeping your word to come back in here and post your picks. I'll be tailing like many others in here.
World Cup 2014 Thread....
Posted:
#152
Quote Originally Posted by composite:
The article states -- The 2014 World Cup in temperature terms will therefore be similar to the three North American World Cups – Mexico in 1970 & 1986, and the USA in 1994 – where matches were played in extreme heat and humidity, and perhaps not coincidentally where the Europeans have also failed to win.
The Europeans didn't win. But they were 2nd place in each of those finals. Not only that, in USA, Europeans were also 3rd and 4th place (Swedes and Bulgarians). So 3 of the 4 semi-finalists came from Europe in '94.
I am curious which teams are likely to do better in higher heat/humidity venues. African teams?
Hi Composite. Thanks for your comment.
My point regarding heat is that it should be one of many factors worth considering when making a bet, and that the heat factor is different depending on the location.
Vanzack disagrees, and I have nothing but the utmost respect for his opinion.
Heat and cold tolerance is built into our DNA, depending on where we are from. These players will not only be playing in the heat, they will be living in it.
In my opinion it is an aspect of laying a wager that is worthy of consideration, and this will only become more apparent as the tournament wears on.
This factor will probably max out in game three.
Posted:
#153
Quote Originally Posted by Tien2262:
Hey van
Thanks for posting
Im new to soccer and been running bad. No disrespect but on your pre tournament betting, how did u do in 2010 worldcup? Im just deciding to see if I should follow u on all or it. Just curious since ive been running so bad lately
Hey van
Thanks for posting
Im new to soccer and been running bad. No disrespect but on your pre tournament betting, how did u do in 2010 worldcup? Im just deciding to see if I should follow u on all or it. Just curious since ive been running so bad lately
Ahh, dude, Vanzack did just fine in 2010. You should consider yourself lucky that you found this thread.
Posted:
#154
Quote Originally Posted by composite:
I am curious which teams are likely to do better in higher heat/humidity venues. African teams?
African teams do poorly in general at the WC. At South Africa 2010, only one of six made it to knockout phase. Another fairly weak batch from that continent again so I don't see the heat issue helping.
Additionally, a fair number of teams are made up of guys who play club ball in Europe and aren't as accustomed to playing in the more challenging weather conditions.
Posted:
#156
Quote Originally Posted by yestoeverything:
Ahh, dude, Vanzack did just fine in 2010. You should consider yourself lucky that you found this thread.
I tailed one of these huge threads, either in 2012 or 2010 (or 2008? lol). I remember it was streaky as hell. There was some profit, but there was also every possibility for an undisciplined tailer to lose his tail: after a great start a pretty long string of losses followed.
It's your money, use it wisely.
Posted:
#159
Quote Originally Posted by Angelus:
IIRC, in 2010 his futures didn't do so great but he was money on the individual games. Van can correct me if I am wrong, but that's how I remember it.
IIRC, in 2010 his futures didn't do so great but he was money on the individual games. Van can correct me if I am wrong, but that's how I remember it.
There is something else you should keep in mind.
Situations and matchups change a lot more, and variance means a lot more in a short tournament with (often) vastly different sides fielded in a World Cup, compared to any other competition. Usually this means that former success in no way guarantees future performance.
Situations and matchups change a lot more, and variance means a lot more in a short tournament with (often) vastly different sides fielded in a World Cup, compared to any other competition. Usually this means that former success in no way guarantees future performance.
I think this is what OP says on the first page. This is a fascinating tournament and is that much more fun with some $$$ riding on it, but like any other gamble, it may or may not work out. And in this case, the 'next season' is 4 years away and is likely to be nothing like this one.
Posted:
#160
Quote Originally Posted by Tien2262:
Hey van
Thanks for posting
Im new to soccer and been running bad. No disrespect but on your pre tournament betting, how did u do in 2010 worldcup? Im just deciding to see if I should follow u on all or it. Just curious since ive been running so bad lately
Hey van
Thanks for posting
Im new to soccer and been running bad. No disrespect but on your pre tournament betting, how did u do in 2010 worldcup? Im just deciding to see if I should follow u on all or it. Just curious since ive been running so bad lately
With all the attention and love this thread is getting -- from many long timers, myself included -- ask yourself this: would this be happening if Van didn't know his stuff and has proved it historically? Easy answer to that question.
Posted:
#162
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thursday June 9
Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) – The opener has the hosts against a Croatia side without their starting striker Mandzukic (out with suspension from qualifiers). I love when motivations align – and this is a nice spot for both teams to come away happy. Brazil will be happy with a win, any win – and Croatia will be happy with a close loss. I fully expect Croatia to defend and counter – with Brazil having all of the possession and chances. I will take my chances that the goal comes late enough that it turns in to a possession-fest for Brazil – and both teams wind down a 1-0 Brazil win. Opening round games are usually tight and played in midfield – so unless Brazil convert a lot of chances – see this going under the 2.5.
I liked Croatia at +1.5 at around even money which was to be had a few weeks ago, but I think that ship has sailed now and am not interested in paying around -130 for the goal and a half. Predicted final score Brazil 1-0.
Place this bet right now, or wait before match start and get better odds? What do you expect Van? Odds will rise or shorten?
Posted:
#167
Quote Originally Posted by SG99:
which two books? Maybe I will place my bet half hour before match at -110 or something.
which two books? Maybe I will place my bet half hour before match at -110 or something.
5dimes and my local. Not sure where it will be by tomorrow, but I think it's moving in the wrong direction for under backers. I suppose you could get some over backers coming in to move it back down, since a lot of people like to play overs!
Posted:
#168
Hey guys...
Just catching up.
One common question / comment is about the weather.
I am not saying that weather WONT be a factor, I am just saying that I am not handicapping weather at this time because I don't know HOW it will be a factor.
As always - I am taking a watch with both eyes, learn, and adjust mentality. If I see something that seems weather related - I will react.
But since I have no predictable way of telling how the weather will have what effect on whom - I will leave that to speculation and discussion as of now...
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#169
Quote Originally Posted by mafia13:
Van =
Thx for posting your plays for the hilton contest last season
Van =
Thx for posting your plays for the hilton contest last season
Thanks mafia - hoping to do it again this season.
You have to register between July 1 and opening week in Sept - so if the stars align - I will give it another shot this year.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#170
Quote Originally Posted by composite:
Smallest as in short? The Ghana players looked 3-4 inches taller than the SK players.
I saw one site that had Ghana as the shortest, and then another that had them as the 5th shortest. Either way - not a big squad - not good in the air to begin with - just another tool in your toolbox.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#173
Quote Originally Posted by ALexiLalas:
Van:
Van:
Best of luck in the World Cup Tourney. This is a must read. Thanks for the time you put into this thread
I really liked France as well, and I still do. I just don't think we are looking at a team that can win this thing without Ribery. He is a top 5 player in the world, you don't replace that. I still think they could get to the semis. On a side note must be nice to have the luxury to leave a player like Nasri off your roster.
Think Reus injury is an impactful one as well. While Germany has great depth, he is a very talented attacking mid player. Immense pressure on this team. Lack of a world class striker probably leaves them short of glory.
I think your total bet in the first game seems solid. Looks like you would probably need all the goals to come from Brazil to lose that. I have concerns that it isn't simply enough for Brazil to win games, they are going want to put on a show. Feels like under bettors will be sweating this one ( but aren't we always sweating under bets) Can Crotia maintain the defensive discipline?
I personally think the Argentina/Bosnia under is a solid bet with a great current price at even.
As you pointed out the Cameroon bonus disputes are a worry.Sounds like it was resolved , but you never know with these African teams. Doesn't seem to be nearly as bad as the Nigeria situation last year before the Confed Cup.
Nice reverse jinx on the US :). They will get a point.
I'm very interested in that Italy/England game mainly because of the venue. It will be interested to see just how rough the conditions in Manaus will be . (POrtugal/USA play there)
The USA looks very fit, give JK credit for that. It may be a difference maker in the Portugal game. CR should be extra motivated since JK for some strange reason left him off his Balon D' Or vote.
Low was thought to the tatical guy when JK was the coach of Germany, and his tatics were certainly questioned at Bayern. What are your thoughts on JK as a coach, mainly from a tatical perspective?
I also like France more and more. The initial reaction was "oh sh*t" - but since then I have become more secure (maybe just had a chance to talk myself in to it). Their road should be easy to the quarterfinals - and by then - they should have the team dynamics without Ribery sorted.
I certainly am hoping for a reverse jinx on the US. A point is very doable - more than 1 point would be a surprise.
I have mixed emotions about Klinsmann. First off - it must be said - he is miles ahead of any coach we have ever had. But that being said - I think more continuity with squads / lineups would help such a young team. I am a big believer in teams like Italy overachieve because seemingly they all play for Juventus or AC MIlan or Inter - and Spain as well. So why not let a team play more than one game together? Even in the friendly runups - different squad every game. I just don't get it - might be a small thing - but it bugs me.
But overall - the talent isn't there to put in a very sophisticated system. His "diamond" midfield is interesting - and seems to be doing well for now. I specifically think that the choice of the back of the diamond - the holding defensive midfielder - is important to this team. I am worried about gaps in front of the defense - and the lack of organization and familiarity to maintain a sharp line to prevent guys like Nani and Ronaldo from tearing it apart - but JK probably has the right idea with playing basically 5 at the back.
Overall, I think VZ should be coach instead of JK - but I will get to this after I complete my duties as official NFL clock management consultant. 
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#174
Quote Originally Posted by SG99:
Place this bet right now, or wait before match start and get better odds? What do you expect Van? Odds will rise or shorten?
Place this bet right now, or wait before match start and get better odds? What do you expect Van? Odds will rise or shorten?
Line has moved recently to the under.
But honestly - and I hope this is the only time I need to say this - WC lines are totally unpredictable. There is zero chance of guessing where these lines are going with such a big worldwide betting public.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#175
As far as all of the nice posts... I read them all - and thanks.
And I hopefully have to only say this once - I have done well with international soccer. Does it mean I will do well this year? Nope.
So I do my best to steer clear of the drama, the accusations, the defending of accusations etc.
I am going to post my picks, and you can decide what is of value or not in what I post - we can discuss / debate it all. Hopefully that is what people will find valuable.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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