Posted:
#751
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
TRAIN69's Avatar says enough. What kind of person would use that for an Avatar? Stay away.
World Cup 2014 Thread....
Posted:
#754
Quote Originally Posted by yestoeverything:
Australia over Spain outright now sitting at +785. Not saying that this is a lock, but it is probably the best +785 bet that you will see this year.
Australia over Spain outright now sitting at +785. Not saying that this is a lock, but it is probably the best +785 bet that you will see this year.
Australia have accorded themselves well against two formidable opponents.
Spain are out, and I question whether the veterans will be willing to risk their waning future earnings by giving it their all in a mean nothing game.
Having said that, they may try and win one last game as a national squad, but it is the end of a spectacular era in Spain, and I don't think the players who once played high stakes poker will embrace sitting at the one dollar table.
Australia have been a pleasant surprise. They will be without one of their best players, Cahill, for this match, but they have the opportunity to go home with their heads held even higher while claiming a win against the world champions.
Their is a motivation gap here.
It is worth a small play at the price.
I tend to agree...
But - there are some strange possibilities. What if Spain plays the whole B team? Guys like Juan Mata? The guys who barely ever see playing time and might need to impress to be part of the future of the national team?
I just cant pull the trigger yet - but understand why you have. It makes sense. But I will wait...
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Posted:
#755
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
Van and I buried the hatchet a long time ago on his yacht partying with super models!
For all the whiners out there, cream rises to the top and Vanzack will be on top when the Cup comes to an end!
It is a GH sighting! Welcome to the jungle.
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Posted:
#756
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:
Don't see argentina scoring less than 3 goals today
Don't see argentina scoring less than 3 goals today
Hard to argue. But Argentina will play best in space - and I am not sure Iran will do anything except play very compact with 8 guys near the box. Can Argentina break that down? Sure. But can they do it 3 times? That is the question...
GL
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Posted:
#757
Game Bets:
9.5-11.5 - 16.13 units up, 21.35 units down
Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS
Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS
Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS
Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit) - WIN
Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) - LOSS
Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - LOSS
Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) - WIN
Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) - WIN
Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) - WIN
France / Honduras - No bet
Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - WIN
Germany / Portugal - Under 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - LOSS
Iran / Nigeria - No Bet
Ghana / USA - over 2 and 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - WIN
Belgium / Algeria - Under 2.5 +100 (1 unit) - LOSS
Brazil / Mexico - Brazil -1.5 +100 (3 units) - LOSS
Russia / S Korea - Russia to win +125 (2 units) - LOSS
Australia / Netherlands - Australia +1.5 and +2 +100 (1 unit) - WIN
Spain / Chile - No Bet
Croatia / Cameroon - Croatia -160 (1.5 units) - WIN
Colombia / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast PK and +.5 +107 (2 units) - LOSS
England / Uruguay - Uruguay PK and +.5 +103 (2 units) - WIN
Greece / Japan - Greece PK and +.5 +103 (1.5 units) - HALF WIN
Italy / Costa Rica - Italy -1 -110 (2 units) Italy to win -190 (1 unit) - LOSS
France / Switzerland - France to win -130 (1.5 units) - WIN
Ecuador / Honduras - Honduras +.5 and +1 +105 (1 unit) - HALF LOSS
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Posted:
#758
Saturday June 21
Argentina / Iran - NO BET - This is really a tough one to read. In their first game, Argentina came out surprisingly defensive - playing essentially 5 at the back for the first half. It clearly wasn't working as there was not enough support up front for Aguerro and Messi - and Bosnia actually played better even though they were losing 1-0 on the own goal. At HT - Argentina brought in Higuan - and it all changed back to normal. So when analyzing their future - I will exclude this first half because I don't think we will se this tactic again. My expectation - based on what I saw against Nigeria and the fact that they are playing Argentina - is that Iran will sit back and play 9 or even 10 behind the ball and pack back and defend. They cant press. They cant play a high line. So this matchup comes down to a couple of very basic factors - can Argentina have the creativity to break down a packed in defense?
This is clearly something Japan was totally unable to do against Greece - and I expect similar from the opening whistle from Iran. So for betting purposes - the time of the first goal and the shape of Iran after the first goal will decide the winner of the spread bet. Will Iran continue to play defense while down 1-0? You could make the argument that they will play for goal differential and hope to go in to the last game against Bosnia with a chance. But if they break the defensive mold - and attack - it could get very ugly very fast. Argentina has the offensive firepower to score as much as they want. Predicted final score Argentina 2-0.
Ghana / Germany - Germany -1.5 -105 (2.5 units) - I really hate laying the goals - and with such a public team as Germany - but feel like this spot is a good one to do it. Ghana has to be emotionally drained after the USA game - to fight back for 80 minutes only to have it snatched away. Ghana clearly made some tactical errors at the beginning - like not starting Boateng - and there was much made about an apparent player revolt the following days against the coach and then an official "there was no revolt" statement by the Ghana FA. I don't like how that smells.
Germany showed against Portugal just how dangerous they are. They have really taken on a Spanish flair for me - playing without a true striker - and working quick passing in tight spaces. They have the players to pull it off too. And against Ghana - I just cant see the Ghana defense staying totally disciplined for 90 minutes - as we saw in the USA game - it only took 2 defensive lapses and it was all over. Ghana looked totally inept at breaking down a packed back US defense - it seems as if the counter-attack in space is their only true danger - and the possession play of Germany should stifle that quite a bit. If they cant get the ball - they cant counter - and frustration and rough play is probably the result. Predicted final score Germany 4 Ghana 1
Bosnia / Nigeria - Under 2.5 -112 (1.5 units) There was a great scouting example of Bosnia from the Argentina game. The first half - they played very well - created chances - and really won the half when Argentina were in a defensive (5 back) posture and lineup. When that switched at HT to a more traditional 4 at the back and they had to deal with 3 forwards on attack - they were almost blitzed off of the pitch. Of course - there is a class difference between Argentina and Bosnia - but it was clear that Bosnia were uncomfortable when Argentina was in attack mode.
Nigeria on the other hand has shown absolutely nothing in attack in their game against Iran, and really nothing in attack in any international play recently. They cant seem to find their identity. Their midfield cant link up their speedy forwards - and their wingbacks have been totally ineffective.
I see a midfield dominated game with few chances - and while there is some scoring quality on Bosnia - there is very little on Nigeria other than breakaway potential. Predicted final score Nigeria 0 Bosnia 1
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Posted:
#761
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
van, what do you think about France to win it all now at +750, and who do you like if not them still?
van, what do you think about France to win it all now at +750, and who do you like if not them still?
I liked them a lot better at 25-1.
I wouldn't bet them at +750. Although - as I stated at the beginning - they will have a nice draw to get to the quarters (probably Bosnia).
They have looked great so far - but wins against Switzerland and Honduras are different than playing Germany, Brazil, Argentina... Even Belgium or Chile.
But I like my position right now.
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Posted:
#762
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Hard to argue. But Argentina will play best in space - and I am not sure Iran will do anything except play very compact with 8 guys near the box. Can Argentina break that down? Sure. But can they do it 3 times? That is the question...
GL
Soccer is pretty simple sometimes.
If you want to defend, and your sole goal is to not let the other team score - it is very difficult for your opposition to break that down. Not impossible, and certainly with enough time and chances it will happen - but what you are seeing in the first half is that the worlds best attackers cant break down a packed in defense that is very mediocre at best.
That's why I find it so tough to bet on games like Arg / Iran. The sole decider of these kinds of contests is how early Argentina will break down the Iran defense - and the response of Iran when they do. Does Iran attack when they are down 1-0 or do they continue to defend? Who knows, but that can be the difference between a 1-0 final or a 4-0 final.
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very interesting stuff Van
Posted:
#766
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Just read something interesting...
Spain conceded more goals in their 2 games so far than they did in Euro 08, WC10, and Euro 12 combined (19 games).
Good Stuff, Van.. It is absolutely staggering to see the quick downfall of this Spanish Team. The first hint was in last year's Confed. Cup against Brazil when they conceded three goals, but I don't think anyone saw what was to follow in these two WC games against Chile & Netherlands. Just terrible, and appears an end to a dynasty.
Posted:
#767
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Soccer is pretty simple sometimes.
If you want to defend, and your sole goal is to not let the other team score - it is very difficult for your opposition to break that down. Not impossible, and certainly with enough time and chances it will happen - but what you are seeing in the first half is that the worlds best attackers cant break down a packed in defense that is very mediocre at best.
That's why I find it so tough to bet on games like Arg / Iran. The sole decider of these kinds of contests is how early Argentina will break down the Iran defense - and the response of Iran when they do. Does Iran attack when they are down 1-0 or do they continue to defend? Who knows, but that can be the difference between a 1-0 final or a 4-0 final.
YUP, bad read on my part for sure
Posted:
#769
Iran had their scoring opportunities in today's game, and could have amazingly walked away with a win here. That would have been stunning. What seemed to change was in the 85th minute with Argentina's two substitutions . They went on the attack and came away with the win.
Argentina to me seem too top-heavy with the talents of Messi (and he's scored "all 2" of their goals so far). Saw way too many careless mistakes , and poor attacking, for all the attention this Argentina team gets. Iran could have easily walked away with a win here. IMHO, you may get some value "against" Argentina as we roll forward in knockout rounds.
Posted:
#770
That was a clear goalkeeping error to me. One could say the defender had no business allowing Messi to shoot with his strong foot but the way I saw it, goalkeeper almost expected another cross from Messi. Argentina had served 40 crosses to that point and goalie performed brilliantly on most of them, playing NFL style safety many times and making those crosses ineffective.
I simply thought Messi picked up on the fact that the keeper would - again - be several feet off the goal line - and was able to capitalize. Pushing small edges, that's what great players can do. What worked for Iran all game just didn't once, and that was enough for Argentina to run away with a win.
Posted:
#771
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Iran had their scoring opportunities in today's game, and could have amazingly walked away with a win here. That would have been stunning. What seemed to change was in the 85th minute with Argentina's two substitutions . They went on the attack and came away with the win.
Argentina to me seem too top-heavy with the talents of Messi (and he's scored "all 2" of their goals so far). Saw way too many careless mistakes , and poor attacking, for all the attention this Argentina team gets. Iran could have easily walked away with a win here. IMHO, you may get some value "against" Argentina as we roll forward in knockout rounds.
Plus, the commentators were mentioning there should've been a penalty kick awarded to Iran between the 65-80th minute (I forgot when it exactly happened). Game would've been much different if that was properly called.
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