Posted:
#501
Awesome info Van has really helped me a great deal. I love handicapping the handicapper.
Anyone know why the Russia match is currently off the board?
The pen is mightier than the pigs
World Cup 2014 Thread....
Posted:
#503
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Vanzack- - One of my books has Russia to win -123 and the other has it -124. This is big diff from your +125. Please offer any advice at these numbers. ThanksTues 6/17
Belgium / Algeria - Under 2.5 +100 (1 unit) -
Brazil / Mexico - Brazil -1.5 +100 (3 units) - I love this spot. Brazil looked weak in their first game, got a lot of media about how they maybe were given the game - while Mexico was basically the opposite. This is still one of the best sides in the world who have one more game under their belts and are out to prove something. Cameroon had nothing on attack and were lacking creative midfield players to break down the Mexican defense - which was admittedly solid almost all game. But this is just a major class difference - in a perfect spot - and Brazil makes a statement. Predicted final score Brazil 3 Mexico 0
Russia / S Korea - Russia to win +125 (2 units) - South Korea used to play long balls over the top and rely on set pieces to score goals. They are adapting to a more disciplined build up approach on attack where their speed can take advantage of wing play - but that adjustment has them on a pretty bad run of form as of late. In their last 5 competitive matches, they have only scored 2 goals - and in qualifying finished behind Iran splitting their home and home with them 1-0 each way. The loss of Shirikov for Russia will limit their creativity in midfield and limit their goalscoring quality. I feel that Capello will inject some defensive discipline that has been the downfall of previous Russian sides - and this is a bet more against S Korea than on Russia. These two teams played back in November in a friendly and Russia won 2-1. Predicted final score Russia 2 S Korea 0
Posted:
#504
Quote Originally Posted by yestoeverything:
Personally, I don't think the overwhelming number of overs are an anomaly.
Personally, I don't think the overwhelming number of overs are an anomaly.
We are witnessing a sea change in international football.
Control is out, attack is in.
Bet unders at your own risk in the rest of the group stage.
I have not bet an under since the tournament began.
I think the main thing we are seeing is some really bad displays of defense
Posted:
#509
Every 'service' out there has been on total OVER in pretty much every game. Which worked well for a period of time.
The problem is they keep picking these disgustingly priced overs, which get into -120s and -130s (such as with this Algeria game).
I told myself I'd be disciplined and stick to the plan. The plan was taking plus money wagers and not falling in love with the 'invincible', with the obvious.
I can't say Brazil and Russia are just as 'contrarian' picks as this UNDER but obviously I'm on board for both. We've had a 0-3 day already. Could a 3-0 day be in the making?
Posted:
#515
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Alright, I give. Uncle.
No more unders.
I feel like I am watching a completely different sport in the last week than what football usually is.
Van
Remove the under plays and you are wagering very effienciently. darn it and move forward. Trust your plays, I AM 
Posted:
#516
Can anyone wager on Man of the Match award for any substantial amount (hundreds/thousands of dollars?)
I'm looking at Neymar at a ridiculous -200 at bet365. Going to pass of course but this made me thing: what price would be 'worth it'? -150? -120? Evens?
I'm looking at Neymar at a ridiculous -200 at bet365. Going to pass of course but this made me thing: what price would be 'worth it'? -150? -120? Evens?
Watching the first game of these two teams, Brazil got all the calls and every call went against Mexico. I don't expect this to keep up but still... this guy takes every set piece for Brazil and it's no wonder he is odds on favorite to score at least a goal vs Mexico.
What does -200 for MOTM tell us? That the award will go to Neymar EVEN if he doesn't score? How is this even possible?...
Posted:
#518
Van,
I debating doubling up on the is Mexico Brazil match. Im almost getting the same odds on -1, -1.5 (-113) as I did at -1.5. Or I could double down on -1.5 (+120). With Hulk out and Ramirez and what you've seen of Mexico so far, do you still like like Brazil to win by 2? Thanks for any insight.
Posted:
#520
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I've fukking had enough with losing unders.Never seen a WC with so many goals.It's overs or nothing for me from here on out.Alright, I give. Uncle.
No more unders.
I feel like I am watching a completely different sport in the last week than what football usually is.
Posted:
#524
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
Lol you guys need to relax. Soccer betting, especially wc betting, is a marathon not a sprint. I know it can be frustrating at times I know, I had Belgium ht/ft. But van will start turning in winners hand over fist.
Lol you guys need to relax. Soccer betting, especially wc betting, is a marathon not a sprint. I know it can be frustrating at times I know, I had Belgium ht/ft. But van will start turning in winners hand over fist.
Luckily, it seems that everyone in this thread is a Van supporter and respects his capping ability. I think we are all just as surprised as Van on these unders not hitting. Im not a capper, but Im a soccer fan. The amount of goals is crazy to me as fan, and annoying a bettor.
I followed Van during Euro2012 and Im more than confident in his knowledge of this game.
GL to all 
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