I doubted Van last year and ate my words and kicked myself in the arse for not tailing his bets. He made a small fortune and had a few bad runs but in the long run he won and did so in great fashion. His celebrity status has been earned. Bet at your own risk and cry on your wifes shoulder. We are men here so everyone act like it. Dont bet what you cant afford to lose.
It's a long tournament... and just 3 games have been played out of the 64! So everybody relax and enjoy, bet with your head not over it, and keep watching the games.
Quote Originally Posted by MWdePro:
I doubted Van last year and ate my words and kicked myself in the arse for not tailing his bets. He made a small fortune and had a few bad runs but in the long run he won and did so in great fashion. His celebrity status has been earned. Bet at your own risk and cry on your wifes shoulder. We are men here so everyone act like it. Dont bet what you cant afford to lose.
It's a long tournament... and just 3 games have been played out of the 64! So everybody relax and enjoy, bet with your head not over it, and keep watching the games.
Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) – I have has this game circled.Classic case of a team getting so much sh*t for being overrated that the line has swung way past where it should be.First – some thoughts on Ecuador – and a geography lesson.Ecuador plays their home games in Quito – which also happens to be the highest altitude capital on earth at close to 10k feet.In qualifying, their home record was 7 wins, 0 losses, 1 draw (22 of 24 points) – while on the road they had 0 wins, 5 losses, and 3 draws (3 of 24 points) – an incredible disparity that can definitely be attributed to home games at altitude.Ecaudor will obviously be playing away from home and at no altitude – and trying their luck with a basic 4-4-2.They are mediocre all over the pitch – not terrible – but their skill positions really don’t have much skill.Switzerland are fully capable of shutting down a team like this – and the line reflects what I feel is about a 30 cent edge because of this backlash that Switzerland is overrated as one of the eight top seeds.Im going out on a limb here and taking longer odds on a Swiss win.Predicted final score Switzerland 2 Ecuador 0
France / Honduras - No bet - I dont know what to do with this game, just think the line is set right on both the side and total.Curious to see how France adjusts to not having Ribery, and to a lot of individual talent on the field that needs to gel.I anticipate that Honduras will play very physical and chip at the French ankles every time they get possession but I just dont see Honduras with very much to offer anywhere on the field.First game, physical game - predicted final score France 2 Honduras 0
Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - I wish this game wasnt in the first round, but will take my chances on two very offensive minded teams with potential problems on defense for both.Bosnia was quietly one of the highest scoring teams in European qualification scoring 30 goals in their 10 games.There has been talk that they would make a shift from basically a 5 man attacking front to play more defensively - but I see them playing to their strength which is their attack.Argentina - what can you say - the most potent attack in the tournament - and only questions might be in their defense and GK.Predicted final score Argentina 3 Bosnia 1
Game Bets:
0-3 - 0 units up, 5.05 units down
Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS
Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS
Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS
Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit)
Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units)
Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit)
Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit)
Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units)
Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units)
France / Honduras - No bet
Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit)
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Sunday June 15
Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units) – I have has this game circled.Classic case of a team getting so much sh*t for being overrated that the line has swung way past where it should be.First – some thoughts on Ecuador – and a geography lesson.Ecuador plays their home games in Quito – which also happens to be the highest altitude capital on earth at close to 10k feet.In qualifying, their home record was 7 wins, 0 losses, 1 draw (22 of 24 points) – while on the road they had 0 wins, 5 losses, and 3 draws (3 of 24 points) – an incredible disparity that can definitely be attributed to home games at altitude.Ecaudor will obviously be playing away from home and at no altitude – and trying their luck with a basic 4-4-2.They are mediocre all over the pitch – not terrible – but their skill positions really don’t have much skill.Switzerland are fully capable of shutting down a team like this – and the line reflects what I feel is about a 30 cent edge because of this backlash that Switzerland is overrated as one of the eight top seeds.Im going out on a limb here and taking longer odds on a Swiss win.Predicted final score Switzerland 2 Ecuador 0
France / Honduras - No bet - I dont know what to do with this game, just think the line is set right on both the side and total.Curious to see how France adjusts to not having Ribery, and to a lot of individual talent on the field that needs to gel.I anticipate that Honduras will play very physical and chip at the French ankles every time they get possession but I just dont see Honduras with very much to offer anywhere on the field.First game, physical game - predicted final score France 2 Honduras 0
Argentina / Bosnia - over 2.5 -115 (1 unit) - I wish this game wasnt in the first round, but will take my chances on two very offensive minded teams with potential problems on defense for both.Bosnia was quietly one of the highest scoring teams in European qualification scoring 30 goals in their 10 games.There has been talk that they would make a shift from basically a 5 man attacking front to play more defensively - but I see them playing to their strength which is their attack.Argentina - what can you say - the most potent attack in the tournament - and only questions might be in their defense and GK.Predicted final score Argentina 3 Bosnia 1
Game Bets:
0-3 - 0 units up, 5.05 units down
Brazil / Croatia – Under 2.5 goals -115 (1.5 units) - LOSS
Mexico / Cameroon – Cameroon PK and +.5 -101 (1 unit) - LOSS
Spain / Netherlands – Spain to win -112 (2 units) - LOSS
Chile / Australia – Chile to win -215 (1 unit), Chile -1 -116 (1 unit)
Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units)
Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit)
Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit)
Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units)
Ecuador / Switzerland – Switzerland to win +155 (1.5 units)
Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) – Columbia has some key injuries that limit them – not only Falcao – but also Edwin Valencia who was the key to their midfield.So their best striker by far – and arguably their best midfielder are both out of the WC.Greece are a side that will bore the hell out of you, but play very compact very organized defensive soccer.They will give possession away – and look to beat you 1-0 on a set piece.They are a lot of veterans in the heart of the defense and midfield for the Greeks – and they have played together a long time – and in a first round game I see this as being very important.Columbia I feel is better suited counter-attacking with speed, but Greece wont let them do that – and I just don’t see how Columbia will break down a packed in defensive third.I think this game has a good chance of ending scoreless – I like the under and Greece.Predicted Final score Greece 0 Columbia 0 .
Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) – I think Uruguay wins this game.But I just don’t trust all of the unknowns going in to this game – the Suarez injury and the first game of the tournament for a team that barely has any two players playing together at the club level.Im not willing to lay -215ish even though I have Costa Rica as being very weak – I think they will come out not to lose in something like a 5-4-1 or even a 5-5-0 formation.It takes a lot of intricate passing work to break down any team that is just intent on defending – and because of the reasons previously stated – I will pick my spots later in the tournament with Uruguay – but will take my chances with a small bet on the under with one team that really wont be pushing to score and the other who might get frustrate with the inability to score.Predicted final score Uruguay 1 Costa Rica 0
Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) – I like what England are doing with their national team.Other than the US players – I am most familiar with England because of the amount of the BPL we get here on TV – and this is a young exciting side with a good future.I just don’t like this spot for them.The Italians come in with an excellent defense – it is essentially the Juventus defense, GK, and Pirlo so I just see a big advantage in a first game for them in being organized.Balotelli for me is not a guy who is going to be consistently good – but has the ability to make a difference.England are going to be best when they counter with speed using Sterling, Sturridge and Rooney to link them up – but I am not sure where they are going to get those chances against a defense that will have the luxury of playing deeper whle sitting on a lot of possession.2 years ago these sides met in a game that went to penalties but was totally dominated by the Italians – I don’t see much being different here.A low scoring game…but the least likely result IMO is an England win – I feel fairly comfortable that if one team is to win it will be the Italians.Predicted final score Italy 0 England 0
Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) – I started buying this at -115 and it has gone up about 10 cents since…. But I still recommend it even at -125.I am hesitant to go over in a first round game, but everything points me in this direction tactically in this one.Both sides are very strong up front, and their weakness is defense.Japan is going to have to outscore teams to survive very long in this tournament – while Ivory coast can play a much more balanced attack they will find the space they need because Japan will dictate tempo.Predicted final score Japan 2 Ivory Coast 2
This is for tomorrow. It was way back on page 9 so I thought I'd highlight it so you folks can roll the Chile profit right back in. Keep em coming Van, thanks for sharing.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Saturday June 14
Greece / Columbia – Greece +.5 +105 (1.5 units) – Columbia has some key injuries that limit them – not only Falcao – but also Edwin Valencia who was the key to their midfield.So their best striker by far – and arguably their best midfielder are both out of the WC.Greece are a side that will bore the hell out of you, but play very compact very organized defensive soccer.They will give possession away – and look to beat you 1-0 on a set piece.They are a lot of veterans in the heart of the defense and midfield for the Greeks – and they have played together a long time – and in a first round game I see this as being very important.Columbia I feel is better suited counter-attacking with speed, but Greece wont let them do that – and I just don’t see how Columbia will break down a packed in defensive third.I think this game has a good chance of ending scoreless – I like the under and Greece.Predicted Final score Greece 0 Columbia 0 .
Costa Rica / Uruguay – Under 2 and 2.5 -105 (1 unit) – I think Uruguay wins this game.But I just don’t trust all of the unknowns going in to this game – the Suarez injury and the first game of the tournament for a team that barely has any two players playing together at the club level.Im not willing to lay -215ish even though I have Costa Rica as being very weak – I think they will come out not to lose in something like a 5-4-1 or even a 5-5-0 formation.It takes a lot of intricate passing work to break down any team that is just intent on defending – and because of the reasons previously stated – I will pick my spots later in the tournament with Uruguay – but will take my chances with a small bet on the under with one team that really wont be pushing to score and the other who might get frustrate with the inability to score.Predicted final score Uruguay 1 Costa Rica 0
Italy / England – Italy PK -114 (1 unit) – I like what England are doing with their national team.Other than the US players – I am most familiar with England because of the amount of the BPL we get here on TV – and this is a young exciting side with a good future.I just don’t like this spot for them.The Italians come in with an excellent defense – it is essentially the Juventus defense, GK, and Pirlo so I just see a big advantage in a first game for them in being organized.Balotelli for me is not a guy who is going to be consistently good – but has the ability to make a difference.England are going to be best when they counter with speed using Sterling, Sturridge and Rooney to link them up – but I am not sure where they are going to get those chances against a defense that will have the luxury of playing deeper whle sitting on a lot of possession.2 years ago these sides met in a game that went to penalties but was totally dominated by the Italians – I don’t see much being different here.A low scoring game…but the least likely result IMO is an England win – I feel fairly comfortable that if one team is to win it will be the Italians.Predicted final score Italy 0 England 0
Ivory Coast / Japan – Over 2 -125 (2 units) – I started buying this at -115 and it has gone up about 10 cents since…. But I still recommend it even at -125.I am hesitant to go over in a first round game, but everything points me in this direction tactically in this one.Both sides are very strong up front, and their weakness is defense.Japan is going to have to outscore teams to survive very long in this tournament – while Ivory coast can play a much more balanced attack they will find the space they need because Japan will dictate tempo.Predicted final score Japan 2 Ivory Coast 2
This is for tomorrow. It was way back on page 9 so I thought I'd highlight it so you folks can roll the Chile profit right back in. Keep em coming Van, thanks for sharing.
Get at them on the next one my dude, let's do this. Lost 500 on Heat last night and 125 on this WC Day 2 but let's shrug it off. What's the play for tomorrow?
Quote Originally Posted by daytradernation:
0-3 start, my azzzzhole hurts.
Get at them on the next one my dude, let's do this. Lost 500 on Heat last night and 125 on this WC Day 2 but let's shrug it off. What's the play for tomorrow?
Hey van, Didn't the Spaniards lose their first game back in 2010 and ended up winning it all? I'mean curious to know what del Bosque tells them after this game....
Hey van, Didn't the Spaniards lose their first game back in 2010 and ended up winning it all? I'mean curious to know what del Bosque tells them after this game....
Hey van, Didn't the Spaniards lose their first game back in 2010 and ended up winning it all? I'mean curious to know what del Bosque tells them after this game....
Yes, lost 0-1 to Switzerland in their first match and then ran the table, only allowing 1 more goal the entire tournament. What CAN you say after a game like that? Nothing. They have two more games to rebound and qualify, and they very well could.
.
Love the Japan-IC over tomorrow. Will be pulling hard for Italy for personal reasons, and I have them in my "random" draw pool with friends. Hate Suarez, hope Uruguay loses, won't wager on it though. Also hope Greece can get a result as it will help one of my futures against Colombia winning the group.
BOL everyone........................bk
Quote Originally Posted by Zacreth:
Hey van, Didn't the Spaniards lose their first game back in 2010 and ended up winning it all? I'mean curious to know what del Bosque tells them after this game....
Yes, lost 0-1 to Switzerland in their first match and then ran the table, only allowing 1 more goal the entire tournament. What CAN you say after a game like that? Nothing. They have two more games to rebound and qualify, and they very well could.
.
Love the Japan-IC over tomorrow. Will be pulling hard for Italy for personal reasons, and I have them in my "random" draw pool with friends. Hate Suarez, hope Uruguay loses, won't wager on it though. Also hope Greece can get a result as it will help one of my futures against Colombia winning the group.
So Brazil -1.5 and Chile -1 would not have been wins in the Knockout Round because they both scored their 3rd goal in Extra time?
Neither game would go to extra time to begin with. And of course you are a lot less likely to see a -1.5 handicap in a playoff game compared to group play.
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
So Brazil -1.5 and Chile -1 would not have been wins in the Knockout Round because they both scored their 3rd goal in Extra time?
Neither game would go to extra time to begin with. And of course you are a lot less likely to see a -1.5 handicap in a playoff game compared to group play.
Van first stop in this season glad to see your thread is up for World Cup and that you have your normal following of the star crossed lovers and haters...I always appreciate your humor and picks and tail a few every year during the cup. Best to you sir!
Van first stop in this season glad to see your thread is up for World Cup and that you have your normal following of the star crossed lovers and haters...I always appreciate your humor and picks and tail a few every year during the cup. Best to you sir!
Van first stop in this season glad to see your thread is up for World Cup and that you have your normal following of the star crossed lovers and haters...I always appreciate your humor and picks and tail a few every year during the cup. Best to you sir!
Van first stop in this season glad to see your thread is up for World Cup and that you have your normal following of the star crossed lovers and haters...I always appreciate your humor and picks and tail a few every year during the cup. Best to you sir!
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
Am I close?
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
How come you ignore my questions? We have no history.
Not ignoring you Kurshka. Just get peppered with questions in here...
My feeling on the France / Honduras total? I think Honduras will set up to play ultra-defensively and I think that the Ribery injury will cause tactical changes for France and I want to see how those play out before I bet. France - unlike Chile - knows how to kill off a game so I don't think if they get up 1-0 or 2-0 that they will press for more. So no real feeling overall - not betting it.
GL the rest of the way.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:
How come you ignore my questions? We have no history.
Not ignoring you Kurshka. Just get peppered with questions in here...
My feeling on the France / Honduras total? I think Honduras will set up to play ultra-defensively and I think that the Ribery injury will cause tactical changes for France and I want to see how those play out before I bet. France - unlike Chile - knows how to kill off a game so I don't think if they get up 1-0 or 2-0 that they will press for more. So no real feeling overall - not betting it.
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
Am I close?
Very good explanation with a slight alterations....
Its not necessarily that I think a draw is the most likely outcome by as far as you state, it is that I think if a draw doesn't happen, Italy has better than a 53.5% (-115) chance of winning.
GL Muggsy.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
Am I close?
Very good explanation with a slight alterations....
Its not necessarily that I think a draw is the most likely outcome by as far as you state, it is that I think if a draw doesn't happen, Italy has better than a 53.5% (-115) chance of winning.
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
Am I close?
Covers is annoying today... Second time it lost my post when I hit submit....
Muggsy - that explanation is very close with an alteration....
Its not that I think that the draw is the most likely result by a long way - it is more that I think that if a draw doesn't happen - Italy have better than a 53.5% (--15) chance of winning.
And as SG99 states above - now that you can get that Italy PK bet at +100 or so, even more value.....
GL Muggs.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:
I think vanzack values the chances of Italy coming out with a win 2-3 times higher than England. But a draw is still - by far - the most likely outcome. The bet is made expecting to break even 5 times, win 2-3 times, lose once out of every 7-8 times these teams play.
Am I close?
Covers is annoying today... Second time it lost my post when I hit submit....
Muggsy - that explanation is very close with an alteration....
Its not that I think that the draw is the most likely result by a long way - it is more that I think that if a draw doesn't happen - Italy have better than a 53.5% (--15) chance of winning.
And as SG99 states above - now that you can get that Italy PK bet at +100 or so, even more value.....
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