Right guys posting this EARLY. I am up 16k on this world cup and I am gambling IT ALL on what I feel is one of the best bets, I have seen in some time. Can this play lose? Of course it can! but I have been this over and over in my head and I feel its a fanastic bet with quite frankly amazing value..
5 * star bet. England to qualify for next round 18k to win 15k
Here is why!
So why England!?
1) I feel they are the better team and I feel they are the one's that are coming into form at the right time. The were signs against Slovenia that finally England were discovering their form after a slow start. Germany on the other hand have looked less then impressive their last 2 games. When I compare the teams I see a German team which looks vunerable at the back. While England don't have the best defence in the tournament, it's a damn lot better then Germany's. I think England can exploit these weakness's and I see a definite edge here. I also feel England have the edge in midfield and in the forwards. Germany have been successful for years by having a solid foundation at the back with great organisation. That is no longer the case. Pre tournament Germany were double the odds of England (and rightly so when you compare the squads of both teams) and now you want to give me near evens for England to advance! Yes Please..
2) Alot of these games come down to coaching. Joachim Low(e) has never convinced me as a coach. Yes they got to the semi finals in 2006 but they were the host nation and Klinsmann was the coach. In Euro 2008 they got to the final (after losing to a bad Croatian team in the group stages) but their route was quiet easy. Portugal never show up when it matters and Turkey were always going to be cannon fodder. Spain only beat them 1-0 but they were far better then that on the night. Besides being coach to Germany, Low has little mangerial experience and has achieved very little in the game.
Fabio Capello in my opinion is one of the top coaches in the world. Tactically there are few better and all that experience coaching in different countries and more importantly winning in different countries gives him a HUGE edge over Low in my opinion.
3) The dreaded penalty shootout. While my fingernails will be gone by the time it got to penalties (if it does) I feel England would have a great chance in such a position. In previous tournaments they never had 5 reliable penalty takers. Now they do. Rooney, Gerrard, Lampard and Milner all take penalties week in, week out for their clubs. Ashley Cole, Joe Cole and Defoe are also very good penalty takers. David James for all his faults is a superb penalty stopper. He is Huge and fills up the goalposts in a way, that they actually look smaller. I like England in this situation if it does arrive.
4) Injuries. Yes England have a worry with Rooney and this is the biggest concern to my bet but Germany will play Bastian Schweinsteiger, Jerome Boateng and Mesut Ozil and there is no way they can all be fully match fit (especially Schweinsteiger). Germany don't have a big enough squad to replace these players so if they pace of the game is frantic (and I expect it to be) then these players will struggle in the second half.
Can this bet lose? As I said of course it can!. It's no LOCK as you guys put it. How can it be, one silly Red card and the whole thing is gone up in smoke. Wayne Rooney has been injured for 3 months and has suffered a damaging loss of form. Also, before the Slovenia camp there was dissention in the camp. But I simply can't get away from the fact I am getting near evens on the better team, with the better coach, with the bigger fan support (England fans will out number Germany 2 to 1 at least). I fully believe in this bet and I am putting my head on the chopping block (nice and early)
WARNING
: I am in the very nice situation that all I am betting with is profit from this world cup. I still have plenty in reserve if this misses. If I lose, I will of course be devastated, so please bare this in mind when wagering (just bet the amounts you can afford). Nothing is ever a sure thing, one bad decision can (as we all know) lead to your money going down the pan!. You can only put everything together, fully back and trust your judgement and hope for the crucial bit of luck to make it a winning play. 
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Will not be playing any other Quarter finals (I like South Korea as an upset but not playing). I of course wish you all luck no matter what your plays are. . Sunday can't come quick enough. Get the beers in or something stronger. It's going to be high stakes drama! 
So why England!?
1) I feel they are the better team and I feel they are the one's that are coming into form at the right time. The were signs against Slovenia that finally England were discovering their form after a slow start. Germany on the other hand have looked less then impressive their last 2 games. When I compare the teams I see a German team which looks vunerable at the back. While England don't have the best defence in the tournament, it's a damn lot better then Germany's. I think England can exploit these weakness's and I see a definite edge here. I also feel England have the edge in midfield and in the forwards. Germany have been successful for years by having a solid foundation at the back with great organisation. That is no longer the case. Pre tournament Germany were double the odds of England (and rightly so when you compare the squads of both teams) and now you want to give me near evens for England to advance! Yes Please..
2) Alot of these games come down to coaching. Joachim Low(e) has never convinced me as a coach. Yes they got to the semi finals in 2006 but they were the host nation and Klinsmann was the coach. In Euro 2008 they got to the final (after losing to a bad Croatian team in the group stages) but their route was quiet easy. Portugal never show up when it matters and Turkey were always going to be cannon fodder. Spain only beat them 1-0 but they were far better then that on the night. Besides being coach to Germany, Low has little mangerial experience and has achieved very little in the game.
Fabio Capello in my opinion is one of the top coaches in the world. Tactically there are few better and all that experience coaching in different countries and more importantly winning in different countries gives him a HUGE edge over Low in my opinion.
3) The dreaded penalty shootout. While my fingernails will be gone by the time it got to penalties (if it does) I feel England would have a great chance in such a position. In previous tournaments they never had 5 reliable penalty takers. Now they do. Rooney, Gerrard, Lampard and Milner all take penalties week in, week out for their clubs. Ashley Cole, Joe Cole and Defoe are also very good penalty takers. David James for all his faults is a superb penalty stopper. He is Huge and fills up the goalposts in a way, that they actually look smaller. I like England in this situation if it does arrive.
4) Injuries. Yes England have a worry with Rooney and this is the biggest concern to my bet but Germany will play Bastian Schweinsteiger, Jerome Boateng and Mesut Ozil and there is no way they can all be fully match fit (especially Schweinsteiger). Germany don't have a big enough squad to replace these players so if they pace of the game is frantic (and I expect it to be) then these players will struggle in the second half.
Can this bet lose? As I said of course it can!. It's no LOCK as you guys put it. How can it be, one silly Red card and the whole thing is gone up in smoke. Wayne Rooney has been injured for 3 months and has suffered a damaging loss of form. Also, before the Slovenia camp there was dissention in the camp. But I simply can't get away from the fact I am getting near evens on the better team, with the better coach, with the bigger fan support (England fans will out number Germany 2 to 1 at least). I fully believe in this bet and I am putting my head on the chopping block (nice and early)
WARNING: I am in the very nice situation that all I am betting with is profit from this world cup. I still have plenty in reserve if this misses. If I lose, I will of course be devastated, so please bare this in mind when wagering (just bet the amounts you can afford). Nothing is ever a sure thing, one bad decision can (as we all know) lead to your money going down the pan!. You can only put everything together, fully back and trust your judgement and hope for the crucial bit of luck to make it a winning play. .
Will not be playing any other Quarter finals (I like South Korea as an upset but not playing). I of course wish you all luck no matter what your plays are. . Sunday can't come quick enough. Get the beers in or something stronger. It's going to be high stakes drama!
No problem. I have made this bet at Ladbrokes.com. I am a VIP client there. Reason being when Mayweather fought Hatton, I flew to England and made a very large play in a Ladbroke bookies on Mayweather to win and Mayweather to win by KO (lot of hassle to organise). As part of that bet, I created a internet account with them and they made me a VIP client..It basically means I can bet up large amounts on a single bet.
Adam, I understand your pessimism but these players are experienced players (Rooney, Lampard, Ashley Cole and Gerrard have taken penalties in Champions league finals) that regulary take penalties. I'm not saying they will definitely win (afterall it is Germany!) on penalties but they are better equiped in this area then in previous tournaments. Let's HOPE it never goes that far!
Adding:
5) Experience. Joachim Low's young team - eight players under 26 - looked vulnerable and lacking in confidence against Serbia and Ghana (until they scored). There is also the belief that, though Michael Ballack wasn't missed in the sort of game that saw the Socceroos thrashed by four goals, he will missed bigtime against England.
England on the other hand have an average age of about 29 (I think). Most of their big names players have played in champions league finals. Such experience can be vital in what will be a pressure charged situation on Sunday.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3029194/Das-Boot-is-on-the-other-foot.html
Thrash paper but backs up my penalty argument 
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Think England have a better chance then they normally would when it comes to penalties.
Why do I get the impression that Ivory Coast v North Korea is going to be a 
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Just played 0-0 @ +1100 and 1-0 IC @ + 500..both for 50 bucks..Also played below for 50 bucks..and my parlay too (chile v Spain over 1.5/England to beat Slovenia) so I have enough to keep me interested for the day.
1) Brazil and Portugal to Draw @ +200
2) Brazil to win 1-0 @ +550
3) Luis Fabiano to score first and Brazil to win 1-0 @ +2500
I have bigger fish to fry this weekend!!
I know my Play for Wednesday already...2 star parlay..
England SU/Spain & Chile over 1.5 goals (parlay)..1250 to win 1k
I have always has this feeling England would struggle early doors but would find a way of qualifying. I am hopeful that England will find a way to win this and maybe even do it by more then a goal. The fact England have been so unimpressive means, I am not unloading on this.
I then have to wait until Friday for the second part of the parlay and that's Spain v Chile over 1.5 goals. For me Spain is simply a better version of Chile. Both teams have flair but look very suspectable at the back. I know people were angry at Spain (I was too first game) but they showed some signs they maybe about to come into decent form..With both teams incapable in my opinion of playing it tight, I expect Spain to have too much firepower for Chile. Chile will also know that goals scored may come into play so if they go behind they will attack. The over 1.5 goals looks a good bet here..
If this loses I'm gonna be pissed! 
. Want to keep the momentum going until the BIG one Sunday. If the England play wins, there will be probably just one last big play for the competition is over..
Anyway way you can fast forward until Sunday!
Adding one more play tonight. Switzerland not to qualify from group @ +150.
400 to win 600. I think they might struggle tonight and Chile have impressed me so far and can keep it close against Spain.
I know my Play for Wednesday already...2 star parlay..
England SU/Spain & Chile over 1.5 goals (parlay)..1250 to win 1k
I have always has this feeling England would struggle early doors but would find a way of qualifying. I am hopeful that England will find a way to win this and maybe even do it by more then a goal. The fact England have been so unimpressive means, I am not unloading on this.
I then have to wait until Friday for the second part of the parlay and that's Spain v Chile over 1.5 goals. For me Spain is simply a better version of Chile. Both teams have flair but look very suspectable at the back. I know people were angry at Spain (I was too first game) but they showed some signs they maybe about to come into decent form..With both teams incapable in my opinion of playing it tight, I expect Spain to have too much firepower for Chile. Chile will also know that goals scored may come into play so if they go behind they will attack. The over 1.5 goals looks a good bet here..
Another 1k in da Bank!! 
Now if Honduras can pull off a miracle and FAR MORE IMPORTANTLY, England qualify in style then we are laughing all the way to the Bookie bank!
Taking tomorrow off. NO PLAYS. Good luck with what ever you go with tomorrow
Could lose ALOT of K's Sunday Ghost! Even if I do I will bounce back on the boxing forums. I know its a bit wreckless gambling my world cup profit on one match but I TRULY believe in the England bet. If you want to make money gambling sometimes you have to trust your judgement.
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