Some Thoughts on Over/Under & Time Value of the Under

I wanted to give my thoughts on the Over/Unders, particularly the standard "Over/Under 2.5" propositions that are typically offered.

I look for the angle to play an under, either pre-match or live-wagering because of one alluring aspect:  

The "value" of my wager increases with time, rather than decreases.  Meaning, the 'time' is with my wager rather than working against it.  

This of course is variable and a great wager in the 50th minute of the match can be blown out of the water in the 51st minute with a goal.  

That being said, there are many opportune times to place a wager on the Under 2.5.  A few key factors to consider when I will almost always play a wager of Under 2.5

A.  0-0 game after 30 minutes.

B.  1-1 game after 75 minutes.

C.  0-1 game after 45 minutes.

I consider "Riskier" wagers as follows:

A.  1-0 game after 40 minutes (home side, favored, could easily be 2-1 or maybe a 3-0.

B.  Any 2-0 game after 60 minutes.

C.  1-1 game at HT

I personally have found that the above situations are likely to fall Over/Under 2.5 and have usually been successful in these scenarios.  Certainly, there's the odd "get out of hand" game where there's a 0-1 scoreline, and then suddenly home team comes alive and it ends 3-1 or something, but that is usually the extraneous result.

I haven't posted much, but wanted to share and would welcome any insight on those bettors who enjoy playing overs.  

I have found success with ingame wagering on games at about the 15 minute mark. If there are situations where it's 1-1 or 2-0 after the 15 minute mark, there is a very good chance of 4 goals or more in that game. Both teams have shown an ability to score, and that is very important. I like the 2-0 situation particularly if the home team is down 0-2.

Also, usually the oddsmakers will tell you what is expected to happen. I've seen ingame lines of 2.5o -150 at the 30 minute mark of a 0-0 game. Chances are it will be 1-0 at the half, and then 2 or three more in the 2h.

I tend to play more overs, just because I hate having a game that is a dead under spoiled by an own goal, or a penalty.

Just my two cents.

I agree with you, I think that live betting is the more positive approach.

If I would master Unders, then filter what I wouldn't play which doesn't fit the Under Criteria, then I'd by default begin to hit overs as well!

LOL

Look for the Copa Libertadores games to go Under 2.5 as well.  Specifically, look for live betting opportunities at 10 minute mark.

Today's games are tough since there's not really a 'meaningful' match.  La Liga, both teams have established table positions.  EPL, probably an Over game, unless Tottenham score first.  

Germany, it's actually a relegation battle, but everything is juiced to the over, so there's probably a reason.  (Though I would think defenses might be important in this relegation battle match).

Italy, places are set, so no real reason for a defensive encounter in those two matches.

Anyone see anything that jumps out at you?

1) the impact of substitutions

2) Has there been a red card

3) Motivation, does one or both teams need to win

then you can look at time remaining or elapsed in the match.