The Schedule Mismatch: A “Scheduled Loss” Scenario
The schedule is a big problem for Calgary. Buffalo has home ice and is rested. The Calgary Flames (5-13-3), however, are facing a difficult situation because they must play on the second night of a back-to-back (B2B) just after losing 5-2 in Chicago. This match is what people call a “scheduled loss”. When teams are on the road in this exact spot playing against a rested team, they typically tend to lose the game about 64% of the time based on past results. Buffalo’s offence gets a much bigger chance to control the game since the Flames are exhausted from travel and also having a bad season generally. Furthermore, tired teams on a back-to-back also might get “bus legs” for the first period, so the fresh Sabres should have an edge as soon as the game begins.
Elite Home Momentum and Offensive Depth
Coming into this matchup, the Sabres (7-8-4) have been playing very well, and their record at home is strong at 6-3-2 which shows they are confident. They just beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-1. Buffalo’s top forwards are better than Calgary’s. With scorers like Thompson, Tuch, and Quinn, the Sabres’ forwards can score more goals than Calgary’s group, especially since the Flames are missing key players like Pospisil, Parekh, and Honzek. Most experts think Buffalo will score three goals. Betting on the Sabres to get more than 2.5 goals seems like a safe idea because their good offense is facing a tired Flames team that allows many dangerous chances.
Special Teams Stranglehold
Special teams are a huge problem for Calgary.
Buffalo’s Penalty Kill (PK) is number one. It stops other teams at an amazing 89.7% rate, and since their whole defense is tighter in November, a comeback that relies on the power play is something you probably will not see.
Calgary’s Power Play (PP) is very bad. They are ranked 28th in the league with only a 13.2% success rate, so they almost never score with an extra man on the ice.
For the Flames, scoring three goals is a “massive statistical hurdle” when their 5-on-5 game is slow from being tired and the power play simply does not work.
The Forecast
Calgary is playing poorly right now. Their defence is bad, and they are very tired, yet they have to face a rested Buffalo team that is playing with great momentum and also happens to have the best Penalty Kill in the NHL. Essentially, the home side is the clear favourite.
Prediction
Buffalo Sabres to win in regular time 2.08 with Coolbet
The Schedule Mismatch: A “Scheduled Loss” Scenario
The schedule is a big problem for Calgary. Buffalo has home ice and is rested. The Calgary Flames (5-13-3), however, are facing a difficult situation because they must play on the second night of a back-to-back (B2B) just after losing 5-2 in Chicago. This match is what people call a “scheduled loss”. When teams are on the road in this exact spot playing against a rested team, they typically tend to lose the game about 64% of the time based on past results. Buffalo’s offence gets a much bigger chance to control the game since the Flames are exhausted from travel and also having a bad season generally. Furthermore, tired teams on a back-to-back also might get “bus legs” for the first period, so the fresh Sabres should have an edge as soon as the game begins.
Elite Home Momentum and Offensive Depth
Coming into this matchup, the Sabres (7-8-4) have been playing very well, and their record at home is strong at 6-3-2 which shows they are confident. They just beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-1. Buffalo’s top forwards are better than Calgary’s. With scorers like Thompson, Tuch, and Quinn, the Sabres’ forwards can score more goals than Calgary’s group, especially since the Flames are missing key players like Pospisil, Parekh, and Honzek. Most experts think Buffalo will score three goals. Betting on the Sabres to get more than 2.5 goals seems like a safe idea because their good offense is facing a tired Flames team that allows many dangerous chances.
Special Teams Stranglehold
Special teams are a huge problem for Calgary.
Buffalo’s Penalty Kill (PK) is number one. It stops other teams at an amazing 89.7% rate, and since their whole defense is tighter in November, a comeback that relies on the power play is something you probably will not see.
Calgary’s Power Play (PP) is very bad. They are ranked 28th in the league with only a 13.2% success rate, so they almost never score with an extra man on the ice.
For the Flames, scoring three goals is a “massive statistical hurdle” when their 5-on-5 game is slow from being tired and the power play simply does not work.
The Forecast
Calgary is playing poorly right now. Their defence is bad, and they are very tired, yet they have to face a rested Buffalo team that is playing with great momentum and also happens to have the best Penalty Kill in the NHL. Essentially, the home side is the clear favourite.
Prediction
Buffalo Sabres to win in regular time 2.08 with Coolbet
Liverpool -1.25 AH @ 1.91 with Betsson | 2 units Bayern Munich -2 AH @ 1.85 with Various Bookies | 1 unit Bayer Leverkusen ML @ 2.02 with Coolbet | 1 unit Genoa DNB @ 1.84 with Coolbet | 1 unit Bologna DNB @ 1.63 with Betsson | 1 unit
Smart Money
Lens ML @ 2.18 with Betsson | 1 unit West Ham DC @ 2.23 with Coolbet | 1 unit
Kingmaker Bets
Sunderland ML @ 3.78 with Coolbet | 1 unit Manchester City ML & BTTS Yes @ 3.75 with Bet365 | 1 unit
Top Picks
Liverpool -1.25 AH @ 1.91 with Betsson | 2 units Bayern Munich -2 AH @ 1.85 with Various Bookies | 1 unit Bayer Leverkusen ML @ 2.02 with Coolbet | 1 unit Genoa DNB @ 1.84 with Coolbet | 1 unit Bologna DNB @ 1.63 with Betsson | 1 unit
Smart Money
Lens ML @ 2.18 with Betsson | 1 unit West Ham DC @ 2.23 with Coolbet | 1 unit
Kingmaker Bets
Sunderland ML @ 3.78 with Coolbet | 1 unit Manchester City ML & BTTS Yes @ 3.75 with Bet365 | 1 unit
Rayo has lost only one of their last five games and is undefeated in four out of five previous meetings with Oviedo. They also have the fifth-best away record in La Liga and demonstrated their defensive discipline by recently keeping a clean sheet against Real Madrid.
They have three clean sheets in their last five, showing real defensive stability under Íñigo Pérez.
Oviedo enter this match with the league’s weakest attack, scoring just 7 goals all season and failing to score in four of their last five, so the value is in fading them.
Rayo Vallecano ML @ 2.25 with Coolbet
Real Oviedo vs Rayo Vallecano - Smart Money
Rayo has lost only one of their last five games and is undefeated in four out of five previous meetings with Oviedo. They also have the fifth-best away record in La Liga and demonstrated their defensive discipline by recently keeping a clean sheet against Real Madrid.
They have three clean sheets in their last five, showing real defensive stability under Íñigo Pérez.
Oviedo enter this match with the league’s weakest attack, scoring just 7 goals all season and failing to score in four of their last five, so the value is in fading them.
Leeds at Elland Road with their famous supporters, bla bla.
Villa have won eight of their last ten matches and look like one of the most consistent sides in the league at the moment, while Leeds has only two wins in the last ten against lousy Wolves and West Ham, so 5.00+ odds for Villa to win but concede (which they kind of always do when playing on the road) is just insanely good to miss.
Villa’s high line and structured transitions should exploit Leeds’ shaky midfield press and stretched back line.
Aston Villa ML & BTTS Yes @ 5.24 with ComeOn
Leeds vs Aston Villa - Kingmaker Bets
Leeds at Elland Road with their famous supporters, bla bla.
Villa have won eight of their last ten matches and look like one of the most consistent sides in the league at the moment, while Leeds has only two wins in the last ten against lousy Wolves and West Ham, so 5.00+ odds for Villa to win but concede (which they kind of always do when playing on the road) is just insanely good to miss.
Villa’s high line and structured transitions should exploit Leeds’ shaky midfield press and stretched back line.
Even though Lyon themselves aren't in top form (winless in four matches), Auxerre's form is even worse. They are winless in seven straight matches and have failed to score in the last four. This, combined with their last-place position, gives Lyon a golden opportunity to break their winless streak and take much-needed three points. Lyon will dominate possession and probe the low block while watching for errors from Auxerre’s makeshift defence.
Lyon ML @ 2.15 with Coolbet
Auxerre vs Lyon - Smart Money
Even though Lyon themselves aren't in top form (winless in four matches), Auxerre's form is even worse. They are winless in seven straight matches and have failed to score in the last four. This, combined with their last-place position, gives Lyon a golden opportunity to break their winless streak and take much-needed three points. Lyon will dominate possession and probe the low block while watching for errors from Auxerre’s makeshift defence.
Leipzig are perfect at home this season with four wins from four, averaging 2 goals per game at the Red Bull Arena, and Werder Bremen have never managed to defeat RB Leipzig in 11 attempts, which suggests a tactical inability to handle Leipzig's playing style.
Leipzig also benefit from Ole Werner’s familiarity with Bremen’s squad, giving them a tactical edge against his former club
Bremen’s five-match unbeaten run under Horst Steffen adds an interesting angle, but their away record remains a major concern.
Leipzig -1AH @ 1.68 with Betsson
Leipzig vs Bremen - Top Picks
Leipzig are perfect at home this season with four wins from four, averaging 2 goals per game at the Red Bull Arena, and Werder Bremen have never managed to defeat RB Leipzig in 11 attempts, which suggests a tactical inability to handle Leipzig's playing style.
Leipzig also benefit from Ole Werner’s familiarity with Bremen’s squad, giving them a tactical edge against his former club
Bremen’s five-match unbeaten run under Horst Steffen adds an interesting angle, but their away record remains a major concern.
Betis have won three of their last four matches and have collected 12 points from six home games, while Girona are winless on the road this year with only four scored and 11 conceded. Betis boast an excellent home record against Girona, having never lost to them at home.
Betis’ 4 wins from 6 at home and Girona’s away form and defensive issues on the counter make the -1 Asian Handicap the most stable angle.
Betis -1AH @ 1.81 with Betsson
Betis vs Girona - Top Picks
Betis have won three of their last four matches and have collected 12 points from six home games, while Girona are winless on the road this year with only four scored and 11 conceded. Betis boast an excellent home record against Girona, having never lost to them at home.
Betis’ 4 wins from 6 at home and Girona’s away form and defensive issues on the counter make the -1 Asian Handicap the most stable angle.
The tactical clash is classic; Getafe will employ a low block, aggressive fouling, and time-wasting to disrupt Atlético’s rhythm. However, Atlético's current momentum will be difficult to oppose with four straight wins and eleven goals scored during that stretch. Historically, Getafe struggles mightily in this fixture, with Atlético winning 31 of the last 47 meetings.
Atleti’s current momentum, +13 goal difference and four wins in their last five, makes the moneyline the most stable angle here. The only real risk factor is Getafe’s disruptive style at home, but Atletico’s midfield control should limit that impact.
Atletico Madrid ML @ 1.80 with Coolbet
Getafe vs Atletico Madrid - Top Picks
The tactical clash is classic; Getafe will employ a low block, aggressive fouling, and time-wasting to disrupt Atlético’s rhythm. However, Atlético's current momentum will be difficult to oppose with four straight wins and eleven goals scored during that stretch. Historically, Getafe struggles mightily in this fixture, with Atlético winning 31 of the last 47 meetings.
Atleti’s current momentum, +13 goal difference and four wins in their last five, makes the moneyline the most stable angle here. The only real risk factor is Getafe’s disruptive style at home, but Atletico’s midfield control should limit that impact.
These mini-Italian Galacticos, Como, always fail me when it comes to scoring when I’m betting on them. Both teams love to play 0-0 draws, and that’s all fine by me today.
Como have conceded just six goals all season and have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5, while Torino games have gone Under 2.5 in 3 of their last 5. Both sides lean heavily toward 0-0 or 1-0 matches, and neither has scored more than once in their last two games.
Como DC & Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.94 with ComeOn
Torino vs. Como - Top Picks
These mini-Italian Galacticos, Como, always fail me when it comes to scoring when I’m betting on them. Both teams love to play 0-0 draws, and that’s all fine by me today.
Como have conceded just six goals all season and have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5, while Torino games have gone Under 2.5 in 3 of their last 5. Both sides lean heavily toward 0-0 or 1-0 matches, and neither has scored more than once in their last two games.
Odense is a bogey team for Randers, undefeated in the last seven matches in all competitions. Randers are also in poor form, winless in five straight matches and with only one win in their last seven matches. I think the bookies are really generous here.
OB’s attack is productive, but they also tend to concede on the road. I can see a 1-1 score or 1-2 to OB, so BTTS is also an alternative
Odense DC & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 with Coolbet
Randers vs Odense - Smart Money
Odense is a bogey team for Randers, undefeated in the last seven matches in all competitions. Randers are also in poor form, winless in five straight matches and with only one win in their last seven matches. I think the bookies are really generous here.
OB’s attack is productive, but they also tend to concede on the road. I can see a 1-1 score or 1-2 to OB, so BTTS is also an alternative
United has injury challenges, but they should have too much for a Everton that struggles with consistency, especially against the “better teams”. Since his dismissal from the club over a decade ago, Moyes has struggled to enact revenge at the Theatre of Dreams. In fact, Moyes is winless in 17 visits to Old Trafford as an opposing manager, and I’m not confident that will change today, especially with Jarrad Branthwaite ruled out.
I’m thinking that Everton will park the bus and try to keep 0-0 in the first half, but keeping the ball out of their own net for the full 90 minutes will be difficult, and when that happens, they will crumble. But I do think they will keep the numbers down today.
Man U to win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.86 with ComeOn
Manchester United vs Everton - Smart Money
United has injury challenges, but they should have too much for a Everton that struggles with consistency, especially against the “better teams”. Since his dismissal from the club over a decade ago, Moyes has struggled to enact revenge at the Theatre of Dreams. In fact, Moyes is winless in 17 visits to Old Trafford as an opposing manager, and I’m not confident that will change today, especially with Jarrad Branthwaite ruled out.
I’m thinking that Everton will park the bus and try to keep 0-0 in the first half, but keeping the ball out of their own net for the full 90 minutes will be difficult, and when that happens, they will crumble. But I do think they will keep the numbers down today.
Manchester City lost to Newcastle even tho their performance was really good and Haaland left the field without scoring for once. Both he and the entire Manchester City team are looking for revenge when Leverkusen visit the Etihad tonight. Bayer Leverkusen is far from the team they were a few years ago when they went undefeated thru the Bundesliga, and with both Tapsoba and Andrich suspended, there isn't a center-back in Leverkusen who can match Haaland's physicality inside the box.
Manchester City is expected to have one-way traffic toward Leverkusen's goal at home, and Haaland will have a field day, with Marmoush, Cherki, Doku, Savio, and Foden constantly feeding him balls. It's incredible offensive potential that will be difficult for Leverkusen to handle. However, the Germans have a class striker in Schick who can threaten Dortmund's Manchester City defense, and no matter how many goals the Germans concede, they never give up and always try to play attacking football, so I really think there's value in betting on Manchester City winning while Leverkusen scores.
Manchester City ML & BTTS Yes @ 2.28 with Betsson
Manchester City vs Leverkusen - Smart Money
Manchester City lost to Newcastle even tho their performance was really good and Haaland left the field without scoring for once. Both he and the entire Manchester City team are looking for revenge when Leverkusen visit the Etihad tonight. Bayer Leverkusen is far from the team they were a few years ago when they went undefeated thru the Bundesliga, and with both Tapsoba and Andrich suspended, there isn't a center-back in Leverkusen who can match Haaland's physicality inside the box.
Manchester City is expected to have one-way traffic toward Leverkusen's goal at home, and Haaland will have a field day, with Marmoush, Cherki, Doku, Savio, and Foden constantly feeding him balls. It's incredible offensive potential that will be difficult for Leverkusen to handle. However, the Germans have a class striker in Schick who can threaten Dortmund's Manchester City defense, and no matter how many goals the Germans concede, they never give up and always try to play attacking football, so I really think there's value in betting on Manchester City winning while Leverkusen scores.
Too many people are betting on Galatasaray today, so much so that it's gotten out of hand now. Everyone is looking at the table, the goals scored and conceded, and how long it's been since Galatasaray was undefeated at home. That's when things usually go wrong, and the chances are probably higher than usual considering all the injuries Galatasaray has.
P.S: Galatasaray has never beaten a Belgian side in Europe
Union SG +1 AH @ 1.70 with Coolbet
Galatasaray vs Union SG - Top Picks
Too many people are betting on Galatasaray today, so much so that it's gotten out of hand now. Everyone is looking at the table, the goals scored and conceded, and how long it's been since Galatasaray was undefeated at home. That's when things usually go wrong, and the chances are probably higher than usual considering all the injuries Galatasaray has.
P.S: Galatasaray has never beaten a Belgian side in Europe
I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game
Under 3 Goals @ 1.99 with Betsson
Ajax vs Benfica Prediction - Top Picks
I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game
Ajax vs Benfica Prediction - Top Picks I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game Under 3 Goals @ 1.99 with Betsson
This is a tricky one for me today. I can 2-3 or 0-1. No feel on this one.
I like your USG play. Tons of public money on Gala
GL today
Quote Originally Posted by Da_BetWhiz:
Ajax vs Benfica Prediction - Top Picks I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game Under 3 Goals @ 1.99 with Betsson
This is a tricky one for me today. I can 2-3 or 0-1. No feel on this one.
I like your USG play. Tons of public money on Gala
Quote Originally Posted by Da_BetWhiz: Ajax vs Benfica Prediction - Top Picks I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game Under 3 Goals @ 1.99 with Betsson This is a tricky one for me today. I can 2-3 or 0-1. No feel on this one. I like your USG play. Tons of public money on Gala GL today
I feel the same for the Chelsea vs Barca game
GL Bro !
Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:
Quote Originally Posted by Da_BetWhiz: Ajax vs Benfica Prediction - Top Picks I have no idea which of these two losers will win the match. Benfica has a tendency to play worse against weaker teams, but it's win or go home for both sides, and if Benfica scores the first goal, I know Mourinho will play with a five-man defence and park the bus to hold onto the lead, and Ajax just passes the ball around and struggles to score themselves, so my guess is it will be a low-scoring game Under 3 Goals @ 1.99 with Betsson This is a tricky one for me today. I can 2-3 or 0-1. No feel on this one. I like your USG play. Tons of public money on Gala GL today
Without KDB’s creation and Anguissa’s drive, Napoli becomes a very average side when playing in Europe, and they are vulnerable to counter-attacks. Qarabag have been an awesome surprise so far this season in the Champions League, and I expect another fearless performance from them.
Napoli might win, but I expect more grind than blowout.
Qarabag + 1.75 AH @ 1.88 with Betsson
Napoli vs Qarabag - Top Picks
Without KDB’s creation and Anguissa’s drive, Napoli becomes a very average side when playing in Europe, and they are vulnerable to counter-attacks. Qarabag have been an awesome surprise so far this season in the Champions League, and I expect another fearless performance from them.
Napoli might win, but I expect more grind than blowout.
Marseille has a psychological block against English teams, winless in their last 12 attempts. Their offence has been good in League 1, but their defence is porous. They recently lost to Atalanta, Sporting, and Real Madrid in the Champions League.
I think Marseille is getting too much credit here for home advantage; the Marseille fans are famous for turning against their own team if they concede early and get under pressure
Newcastle -1 AH @ 3.70 with Coolbet
Marseille vs Newcastle - Kingmaker Bets
Marseille has a psychological block against English teams, winless in their last 12 attempts. Their offence has been good in League 1, but their defence is porous. They recently lost to Atalanta, Sporting, and Real Madrid in the Champions League.
I think Marseille is getting too much credit here for home advantage; the Marseille fans are famous for turning against their own team if they concede early and get under pressure
Palmeiras currently holds second place and cannot afford yet another winless game, as doing so would give the title to Flamengo. There is small hope; they are the second-best away team in the Brasileiro and have won seven of the last ten games between them.
Any day of the week, I am willing to accept 3.00+ odds for a team as desperate for a title as Palmeiras.
Palmeiras ML @ 3.30 with Coolbet
Grêmio vs Palmeiras - Kingmaker Bets
Palmeiras currently holds second place and cannot afford yet another winless game, as doing so would give the title to Flamengo. There is small hope; they are the second-best away team in the Brasileiro and have won seven of the last ten games between them.
Any day of the week, I am willing to accept 3.00+ odds for a team as desperate for a title as Palmeiras.
Very simple predictions today. Fading the public blindly, and nothing else:
Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94 with Bethard Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan - Under 9.5 Corners @ 1.94 with Coolbet Tottenham +1.5 AH @ 1.80 with ComeOn Eintracht Frankfurt DNB @ 1.99 with Various Bookies Club Brugge X2 @ 2.66 with Various Bookies
Very simple predictions today. Fading the public blindly, and nothing else:
Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan - Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94 with Bethard Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan - Under 9.5 Corners @ 1.94 with Coolbet Tottenham +1.5 AH @ 1.80 with ComeOn Eintracht Frankfurt DNB @ 1.99 with Various Bookies Club Brugge X2 @ 2.66 with Various Bookies
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