Midweek games starting 9/12

First off - EPL game today - QPR vs Newcaslte.  In short, I wont be wagering on this one.  I wanted to bet QPR, but the price is too high - PK -140ish?  On QPR?  No thanks. 

The Joey Barton thing makes this game really interesting, along with the new ownership and optimism in QPR - but make no mistake - this team will be scrambling in May to avoid relegation - and I just dont see them on the same level as Newcastle yet.  Kieron Dyer wont play in this one for QPR - If the line was PK EV I would take QPR, but the price is just too high.

I might take a shot on a 0-0 final at abou +700 for a tiny amount, not even worth posting as an official play - just think there is a good chance on a low scoring game.

On to Champions League:

1.  Valencia -138 (3 units) - I do like Valencia here.  Class mismatch, plus Genk has serious issues with injuries. 
2.  Olympiacos / marseilles under 2 and 2.5 -120 (1.5 units)

Thats it.  I do think Chelsea and Barca are bankers -  so if you are the type that likes a parlay that might be worth a look.

I also really wanted to like something in the Porto / Shakhtar game - I like both of these sides and wish they werent playing each other week 1 - but there will be other spots to bet them.  I think the price is high on Porto - but Im not too interested in betting against them.....

Anyway, back with Wed games soon.

HT 0-0

Be careful with that Sims - really what this is saying is IF there is a goal, it is most likely to be scored by QPR.  This doesnt mean there is expected to be a goal or a winner - it is saying "IF there is to be a winner, it is most likely QPR".

The draw is the HT favorite at +148, and QPR is +168, so the betting public thinks a draw is more likely than a QPR win.

I got the yips on the price.  In retrospect....

Shoulda wouulda coulda

Sims -

20 mins left - QPR is PK -170, but the draw is -167....

10 mins

0-0 Final.

Even though it was a small bet, is nothing like the thrill of winning a +700 bet.....

Problem is, throwball starts in about 3 hours and that will have me on a pepto bismol IV drip again.

Rarely does a game play out exactly the way you thought in your head - but this one did.  QPR had edges on chances, possession, and overall quality but just couldnt finish.

My problem with the 0-0 draw bet is that I could only realistically get down about .1 of a unit with limits and line moves.  I would have liked to bet more - but just couldnt.   I will take it as a great way to start the week - now if throwball would just cooperate a little bit......

Riding with you tomorrow Van......good luck.

Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Brilliant call Van! Congrats!

Two questions:

i) Where do you play exact scores for the EPL? I looked on Pinny today but couldn't find that option.

ii) Who are you on tonight in the NFL? Didn't notice any plays in your other thread....

1.  Thats the problem - I have a way to get down 100 here and there - but overall I was only able to get down less than a thousand on it.  Betfair always has a market, and even 5dimes has it up for americans.  But anything more than a couple of hundred moves the line from +700 to +600 in one shot.  But if you are looking for low limit options for soccer for Americans, 5dimes is really pretty good.

2.  Im on Oakland for 2 units.  I got +3+110.

GL

FYI - the last 2 that didnt make my Champs League cut for Tues - but might still with slight line movement or a change of heart from me - were:

Zenit St Pete +122
Shakhtar +1 -120

I will update if I decide to add anything officially.....

I also lean Shakhtar - and might end up having them.

My thoughts on Arsenal are simple - I cannot bet on this team until I see them play at least a couple of good games, and so far I havent seen a single one.  They had every reason to blow out Swansea on Saturday - and they looked like crap - and while they did play better than Swansea - they left themselves in a position to leave points.  They were not good - they dont finish - they dont create - they have been exposed on defense all season.

As bad as Dortmund has been - I cant pull the trigger on Arsenal - and Im not saying its impossible - I just dont like the business of predicting when a team will wake up (if at all).