Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

Van just want to throw in my thanks for your work for us in this strange game,did not realize how hard this game was to bet,but was lucky to be able to read your write-ups and picks early on.

Another great day from you and you are helping alot of us on this site,

GL rest of way 

Game Picks

Current Record 25-12
Up 53.76 units, Down 22.37 units
TOTAL - Up +31.39 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units

PENDING FUTURES:
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)

I might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I am picking up on a trend.  6 knockout games, 1 game with 2 goals in regulation time, and three with three goals, one with four goals, and one with five goals.  Sure seems to me that 1 goal inevitably = more goals.

53.  Japan / Paraguay - Japan +.5 -117 (90 minutes) (1 unit) - I have done a 180 on Japan.  If you read my opening writeup before the tournament, I wrote them off as being mostly a bunch of J-League players and I bet them to get 0 points in their group.  But I have since gone to school on them, and am impressed.  They are very organized - especially on defense - as they held the Netherlands to 1, Cameroon to 0, and Denmark to 1.  Im not totally sold on them up front, but their midfield does a nice job possessing the ball and making accurate passes - and Honda has shown flair as a playmaker.  Paraguay have looked good - and man for man has Japan beat on paper.  I am concerned about their lack of scoring - and that NZ game still has me puzzled.  Maybe it was that they were playing for the draw - but I think Japan will see things in that game tape that they can duplicate well against Paraguay to frustrate them.  Japan will play defense and counterattack - and I think they will hold them here for the first 90.  I think Paraguay has the class here - but not enough to be close to an even odds favorite to win in 90 mins.  I think we also see our first under (barring an early goal) of the knockout rounds, but I simply wont bet an under 2, I would be more inclined to bet a 0-0 at +600 or so.....   Final score prediction Paraguay 1 Japan 0 (in extra time)

54.  Portugal / Spain - Portugal +.5 -118 (90 minutes) (2 units) - Who has the best defense so far in the World Cup?  Brazil?  Switzerland?  Spain?  Nope - its amazingly Portugal which has yet to concede a goal - in a group that included the Ivory Coast and Brazil.  And this is not an accident, it is by design.  Portugal might be accused of playing "negative" soccer - but this change in tactics from the "golden age" of Portugeuse soccer was neccesary and could have them overachieving.  We probably will see a single true striker from Portugal - as they defend and counterattack until otherwise necessary.  Obviously, they have the stars to make their chances count - Ronaldo and Simao can singlehandedly take over a game - so they will be fine to defend and counter.  Unfortunately for them, Spain is on the other side of the field - but there is something about Spain that hasnt looked right to me.  It might be a case of having too many all stars on one team - but they have seemed out of synch in all of their games so far including Honduras where they should have scored 10.  Their defense is as solid as they come - and they obviously have players all over the field that can make plays that can take over a game.  But Torres has been pretty bad so far - and it doesnt seem to me that he and Villa play nice together.  Very much like the other game of the day - I just see Portugal hanging around and hanging around - enough to frustrate Spain in to a worse mindset than they already seem to be in - and possibly get a result here.  Opposite to the first game, I think the longer this one goes on the more life Portugal will get - it wont be an issue of being worn down with constant pressure - I see frustration and counterattack - and possibly Spain going home.  Im going to go out on a limb here and say that Portugal gets it done either in extra time or PK's.  Final score prediction Portugal 1 Spain 1 (portugal advances on PK's)

GL all