Is Soccer Usually Chalk Until The End?

Pardon my complete cluelessness when it comes to soccer. I've only bet it a few times in my life, mainly during late night degen sessions.

I checked out the bracket, and it looks like all chalk so far as far as I can tell. I know Croatia was the favorite to advance today, and it was pickem in extra time, and they came through at the end.

So it looks like if Spain and Portugal both win, it'll be a clean sweep for favorites in this round. Is this typical for the earlier rounds of the World Cup? Kinda like in Men's Tennis majors? 

I'm looking into Switzerland as a "To Advance" play. But I'm weary about betting against some big name stars that I've actually heard of despite not knowing much about soccer. Soccer is the sport of the world, and this World Cup may be an even bigger business than any other sport out there.

So I'm asking if upsets typically happen during these early rounds? Or does FIFA try to protect their stars for deep tournament runs?

I'm asking because I don't think the world wants to see a team with Cristiano Ronaldo bow out of the World Cup so early. 

Your comments would be appreciated. Thanks

Haha all sports have upsets, same as soccer

Croatia-.5 not cover

Messi -1.5 not cover

Excellent question and one that I was pondering myself.

So here's what I found from the last 5 world cups...

Firstly, for arguments sake we'll call any favourite priced at a handicap (asian) -0.25 as a semi favourite and more than -0.25 as a genuine favourite.  Pick'm or 0 handicap games I would consider open matchups that don't qualify as upsets.

Second, I'm not sure if you are asking for the upset to happen in 90 minutes or including ET so I will distinguish between the two.

2018 - Russia knocked out Spain on penalties as + 1 asian handicap (AH)
2014 - All favourites advanced - 3 in extra time and 1 on penalties
2010 - All favourites advanced - 1 on penalties
2006 - France and Portugal both advanced as +0.25 AH.  All other favourites advanced - 1 in extra time
2002 - Senegal advanced as +0.25 AH in extra time, USA advanced as +0.25 AH in 90 minutes and South Korea advanced as +0.5 AH in extra time

 

Yeah I know. I was just wondering if it's like tennis though, where you usually don't see the top guys go down prior to the quarters. Federer, Nadal, Djokovic were basically fixtures in the quarters for a decade. Federer made like 28 quarterfinals in a row. Nadal was a little shakier, but he made it most of the time. Djokovic like never loses early anymore. 

So is it very likely to do a Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain semi-finals or something to that nature? 

@matt-e-matticle

 Thanks. That's some really good info. I never bet the regulation lines. Betting is all about 2 possible outcomes typically, and it's 50/50 for the most part. Betting regulation only complicates things. 

I'm not interested in betting Morocco at this point. Spain is a -400 to advance and nearly a 2-1 to advance in regulation. I try to avoid bets where the odds aren't at least near 1-1 because it's hard for me to read a line when you factor in plus odds like that.

So you're telling me that all the lines have been surprisingly low for this round of the cup yet all the favorites have won so far? Seems kinda odd that it hasn't happened yet, and it would seem to me that one of them is due in that case. 

I'll likely wait until after the Spain/Morocco match to make a final decision. And I'm seeing the line on Portugal moving up already.

I might not know much about the sports, but I can read. And it appears that there's a lot of negativity towards GOAT Ronaldo right now. But he has so many fans that I would think that the sport of soccer wants him to advance as far as possible in this tournament. 

Another note, since I don't know much about soccer, and I'm looking at everything.

I'm showing Switzerland at 80-1 odds to win the cup at the moment. Portugal is 12-1. 

So Portugal is basically like a Division Champ in the NFL that's good, but nobody really takes seriously as a real contender to win. (San Francisco 49ers are 12-1 at the moment, as are the Cincinnati Bengals surprisingly). The NY Giants are 85-1.

I realize that the winner of this match will have to play Spain, and will more than likely lose. But 80-1 seems absurdly high for a team that supposedly has a good chance of making the last 8. 

And also most people forgot this is the first time we have World Cup in November and most elite players in top form, and maybe that’s why the reason we haven’t seen much upsets in knockout stage

I have one more question if someone can oblige.

I saw this dude on twitter post WC picks on Saturday early AM. He's gotten every game correct so far, including at least 3 games where he's gotten the score exactly correct. (including 4-1 Brazil today). 

He's calling for 1-1 draw in the first 90. If it were to go extra time/kicks, would it be a pickem game with Portugal and Switzerland, or would Portugal be a pretty big favorite? 

I think I read someone say Switzerland tries to get a lead, then plays tough defense and tries to hold on. If it were to go to extras, I dunno if Switzerland is equiped to win in a shootout. 

@slamspurs

 If it goes extra time depending on the possessions and total shots line can drop for Portugal to advance.

Switzerland aren't winning the WC, save your money.  It would take too long to explain why they can't but ultimately it comes down to the quality of their players and their ability to control possession.   

I did a WC round of 16 post where I highlighted the value of a 1-1 draw in this round based on the last 5 WC's.  They've hit at a 30% clip which is pretty insane when they are priced to hit at about 14% on average.  So far I've hit 1 with the Japan v Croatia game and only need 1 more for profit otherwise I walk away just shy of breaking even.  It's a modest strategy with potential for big upside given 1 world cup had 4 1-1's from memory and I was confident we'd see at least 1.

Portugal a very technically proficient team while the Swiss will be happy to let Portugal have more of the ball and hit on the counter - they are also less technically gifted.  I would expect that possession advantage to be reflect in their odds but I wouldn't say they'd be heavy favourites to win in extra time.  A shootout will only favour Portugal marginally give the quality of their penalty takers but they don't tend to favour anyone side so I would it expect it would only favour Portugal by a few points.

Thanks for your response. I wasn't implying that I wanted to bet Switzerland to win the WC, nor did I think they have any shot. The question was whether an 80-1 long shot even had any business being in a quarterfinal. Because once you reach there, if you can get hot and the stars align, there is a chance you could win. And I find it odd that even in this position, Switzerland who supposedly has a shot here is still paying 80-1. 

This tournament played out with teams having quality against those that do not. Soccer at this level boils down to quality in the final third of the field (goal scoring area). 

Look at USA- they had clear open chances to score but had no quality up top. Senegal same story. Could go on and on. 

This man asking is it all favorites after 2 days of the 2nd round, directly after there was upsets galore in the 1st round.

Just stick to the sports where the favorite is called the chalk bro

Final is always big names though..wc is just for the elites to win unfortunatly 

Well an unexpectedly bad morning losing on big chalk has caused me to play both of the games today.

Spain ML -170

Portugal/Switzerland DRAW +245

Parlay both. 

Spain winning in regulation seems like a decent value. 

Portugal/Switzerland feels like a dramatic game to end the round.

I think Switzerland may jump out to a lead and Portugal manages to even up.

Leaves it up to a dramatic ending