EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS (6/19)

YTD (EUROS):  12-7-3 (0-1 BIG PLAY!!!)

 Been a good start and I want to post super early (or late depending where you are) for tomorrow's action as games start at 6am PDT.

The first game is super interesting to me because I think we will see exactly why the Croatians seem to always advance in these tournaments.  For me, I think the best team in this group is Spain, and the Croatians knew that.  They just didn't want to get blown out by them.  They saw the Italians give up an early goal to Albania and then win the match by one goal.  So they know coming into this game if they can limit the Albanians to 1 or less goal, they will be in the drivers seat for next rounds matchup with Italy.  That is of course if Italy do lose.

So I think that Croatia wants to come out strong, and every early game to date has gone OVER in goals.  Not sure if there's something to that but I think this is where Croatia shows how much more talented they are as they power home a win:

CROATIA OVER 1.5 GOALS (-165)

CROATIA/ALBANIA FH OVER 1 GOAL (-116)

CROATIA -1 (-135)

Maybe a 3 goal game or maybe even 2-0 Croatia.  Anything else would in my mind be an upset.  I think the Croatians aren't dead and they have a rabid following so I expect them to try to come out and control the tempo.  Let's see how these go.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Croatia wins this 3-1. And at least a draw if not better vs Italy.  They’re fine. Dangerous team. 

Must win for both teams....second half will be some very late scoring...

Just waking to see this.  

WINNER!!!

Once again, the early game goes OVER.  And once again I opted for a FH play than a FG play on the total yielding a push vs. a loss (I do have the over in a tasty parlay).  Let's get this 3rd Croatia goal 

Croatia over 1.5 goal winnerrrrrrrrr   thank you Sir LAGame

you went 1-1-1 in the early game right?

@Brooklyncapper

Yes.  Why?  It's right there in plain view (not being rude btw).  Just kinda frustrated it's two in a row that I laid off FG and took FH when I see the trend myself with the early game scoring.  

YTD (EUROS):  13-8-4 (0-1 BIG PLAY!!!)

Be back in a couple with the next game play(s)

Nice start! 

GER/HUN BTTS appears cheap @ -110 with Hungary backs against the wall. GER will be flying, perhaps HUN can knick a goal. 

Also o9.5 corners … 

Thanks for posting.

@LAGameofInches

i lost my parlay already 

Going to go with a probably unpopular play here but again my gut is begging me to take it.  

Everyone is expecting Germany to win this game and put on a show much like they did vs. Scotland.  The problem I'm having is that I don't think Germany is all THAT great and I find Scotland much more inferior to Hungary.  I was actually pretty shocked at how easily the Swiss handled them.  They really ARE a good side.

But they also might find themselves with so much pressure that they fold, and I am NOT in any way expecting Germany to lose on home soil.  Hungary will come out hungry, pun intended, but I think will also want to limit any damage they can't overcome.  So I think they sit back and defend then hope to hit Germany on the counterattack.  Also, only one of their last four H2Hs produced more than three goals.  I think the same thing happens here and the price is cheap on something like that.

GERMANY UNDER 2.5 GOALS (-115)

GERMANY/HUNGARY FH UNDER 1.5 (-154)

I feel like the FH UNDER is begging us to not take it, so I will.  And if that is the case, then they are expecting perhaps a lower scoring FH which bodes well for the German TT under.  Hate doing it, but I feel like it's the right side and play.

As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Agree w your take on HUN, game pace is what I think is still unsettled factor. GER prob wants to push in front of raucous Stuttgart crowd but HUN will look to tame. 

I like 1H under too - adding o9.5 corners - GER pressure and HUN counters. 

Admittedly I’m nervous but I have to trust the stats. Outside of the Scottish game the German offense hasn’t been as lethal as in years past. I like Wirth and think the Germans win but they don’t need to crush they need to move on with a win and no injuries. 

Yea build from the back and control type dominance which I agree doesn’t always translate to goals (altho the finishing this tourney is off the charts, xG prob scary high but I’m ignoring lol). 

@LAGameofInches

 Good start and analysis

Ugh I'm sick playing an UNDER in the Germany game.  Win or lose it seems every time they have the ball my anxiety kicks in.

@rogue_wave

I feel like you've already won the corners play in the 1st half lol!!!  

First goal was a fluke.There was a clear foul in the build up....VAR allowed that to stand--which is amazing, because the player was shoved in the back by a shoulder, and usually that is called.

Hungary nearly tied it late. Dreadful offsides. It was slightly more than a toe, but that's about it.

Hungary will have their chances in the 2nd H.

@LAGameofInches

 I guess it was a 1H line lol … thanks for bringing 1H under into focus; nail biter but 

A couple things go our way and the record is faaaaaaar better.  But as it stands, I dont' think I will be another Germany FH under lol.  

GERMANY/HUNGARY FH UNDER 1.5 (-154) W 

YTD (EUROS):  14-8-4 (0-1 BIG PLAY!!!)

Another whole half of anxiety upcoming.  Now really hoping Hungary just doesn't score!

Reinvested 1 unit into BTTS live +165 

@rogue_wave

I like it I don't have that bet admittedly for my Germany TT UNDER I hope Hungary scores and takes some time and pressure off.  The Germany won't be playing as open and free b/c the pressure will shift.  Good luck with the play will be back on later too with the third game 

@LAGameofInches

 I hope you’re on Scotland +.5 last game, or under again?

This is going to end up 3-0 Germany

2 1 Hungary German should take the foot off the petal in 80th

I definitely hope NOT!  Anxiety for the next 10 minutes of my life then will be back to assess the day in total.