Euro2020 Futures (opinions/thoughts/plays).....

Golden Boot Props: 1) at least take the few minutes to check and see if the player is his country's primary PK taker. practically every Golden Boot winner has pulled this duty for his country. and practically every Golden Boot winner has converted from the spot. and 2) pick a player whoms country is expected to at least make it thru to the KO rounds. the more matches/minutes you play? the more chances. its not rocket science. 3) and for godsakes dont take a Midfielder (unless hes pulling PK duties). no matter how good he is. Strikers win this award. 

its also probably a good idea to choose (most) from this list for individual goal props:

To the best of our knowledge, heres each countrys PK takers. the 2nd name is if the first one isnt on pitch:
Austria: Arnautovic
Belgium: Hazard (Luk when Eden not on pitch)
Croatia: Modric (Perisic)
Czech: Dokal
Denmark: Eriksen
England: Kane
Finland: Pukki
France: Griezmann
Germany: Kroos (really need to double check this one, is he in starting 11)
Hungary: by committee as their star is out
Italy: Jorginho (Immobile when Jorg not on pitch)
Netherlands: Depay
Macedonia: ?????
Poland: Lewandowski
Portugal: Ronaldo
Russia: Dzyuba
Scotland: Christie
Slovakia: Hamsik (we think)
Spain: Morata (im pretty certain hes primary now since Ramos not in squad)
Sweden: Larsson
Switzerland: Rodriguez (if you have a fantasy team? TAKE HIM!!)
Turkey: Yilmaz
Ukraine: game-by-game
Wales: Bale (Ramsey)

i took Harry @+600

might add others. 

done!!!! (i think )

Have a great tourney Spec. 

Forza Azzurri 

Great insight as always mate.

Think you lot will have a great tourney, I chickened out and sat with the Frenchies no way I back a team taking vaccine shots during a major tournament.

Gando, ditto for you and hope all is well with fam is fine up there.
paletta, you need to that in bold letters. and a font a few sizes up.
Make, would like to just see us advance. cant really think beyond that. i didnt cover Covid. been through enough the past 18 months and just want to NOT try to deal with it for 3-4 weeks (get what I mean?). and most just developed that attitude of "lets not it let it ruin THIS for us". but yeah, i dont know the whole thing but from what a good friend mentioned up there is Brits apparently imposed new protocols the other week i doubt it will affect anything for group stage. but when thats all and done and the 16 countrys coming in from all corners of europe & converge up there. it could be problematic. just guessing Spains vaccine shots might have been simply to ensure theyd be allowed to enter UK. i really dont want to get involved in that topic, im "tired" of it Make. maybe Boll or someone can provide better more accurate info from the 'street level' from up there. good luck to you as well this month and again, congrats on Inter.

Germany: Kroos (really need to double check this one, is he in starting 11)

Löw mentioned recently that Kroos is indispensable. Though I think since Müller is back he will take the penaltys.

Great sh*t otherwise 

Hi Spec, I don’t understand the thought process behind all these team overs, yet taking the under for total goals in the tourney. 

Spec-great write-up as per usual...agree Belgium/Denmark 1/2 in their group solid at +175...Belotti great value at +550 for Italy's top goalscorer---surprised you didn't take Ciro lol!  Forza Italia!

@specimen24

 Para este humilde servidor, alemania llegara mas lejos de los que muchos piensan

Group with fewest goals: always mess this one up. took a peek at previous years and they almost all seem to follow the same pattern. a high scoring Power + 3 evenly matched squads. in '16 Germans were in a group with Poland/NI/Ukraine, won this prop by a wide margin. even in the WC, Les Bleus + Denmark/Aussies/Peru couldnt even hit double digits in their 6 games. looking at these Groups and trying to see which matches a similarity the best and looks like either A or E. so I went with D , since the Lions have far better offensive firepower than we do (like the Germans & French had) Ill take their Group D to finish with fewest goals @+510   maybe theyll get all their goals in KO's 

Raq i always felt that sounded like a weird comment. never met/tasted/felt sh*t that was great. sh*t is usually just that... sh*t. i guess its similar to someone saying you're optimistically pessimistic. i still dont know whom Low selected, will Mueller play enough minutes to make that option worth its while? anyways, tks for stopping by.
Rain, ill explain this in best way I can. if you include that Waffle/Lion parlay I have 7 TT overs..... theres 17 countries in this thing. so just because a few might (or not) hit by no means should it guarantee the total will blow over the 125. re-wire the melon. besides, ill always have that option of hedging team totals in some way/shape/form. be it the game total or team match total or even do a rare in-game play if choose. our little group has always gone heavy on futures, the upside is is too big of a '+' though still have the option to not lose your shirt on anything. prefer to risk far less on the match-to-match, its too big of a headache, and International tourneys... can really make one look st*pid at times. its not easy.
doc, as always. Cirro? we can be accused of watching a player too much to the point where you might not see things 'logically'. I sure as h*ll hope Im wrong. DJ got him pegged over there in his thread, and trust me, I dont mind looking stupid over my thoughts. when he was young, they labelled him our "savior" up front. a decade later, with just 13 goals in 3100+ minutes wearing the blue...... well, Cirro.... its time to do some "saving". wouldnt you think?

time to shut this thread down and re-visit in few weeks.  put up the 1st round in a bit. 

I read every word of this.  Great work.

Van   appreciate it.  not always right, and not immune to chunk-blowing sessions. will head to your thread in a bit, put up the first rounders in a bit. apologies.  

No need. Yours is way better.  Maybe for my picks, but you have the analysis covered.  Im on Turkey +.5 +195 today. GL

Haha, never thought you will dig that deep. Is the glas half full or half empty? 

Löw did not bring Müller and Hummels back to the squad to sit on the bench. As his future is clear and he will step down after the euros, he does not have to worry about onging rebuild after the tournament. So the constant pressure by German media led him to bring back two of his cornerstones to be leaders of the team and start every game.

Have to say I like a lot this German team but not amused of Löw playing with 3 cb-s in the back. Since the desaster of 2018 he is overthining way too much.

As usual great analysis Spec. For the Turkey tourney goals Over were you not counting on gli azzurri clean sheet in the opening match?  Thinking Turkey TT OV 1 against Wales on Wednesday... But not sure. Wales clean sheet no is -294 

had a bit of time, figured pop in and get some replies up.  and toss out the stuff sent/discussed.    some nice results thus far. will see how the rest of it unfolds.

van, actually thought that was going to hit, but the way Turks played caught many off guard. i'll take it.

Raq, makes sense. calling back two of his most experienced for one last time. personally I think Germans are being overlooked simply because whom they are paired with + their recent UNL matches. and we've already seen 3 separate times as to why that comps results shouldnt be held in high regard. GL to your team.

barney, firstly, as always, hope all is well with self and fam. i noticed you have a Copa thread up so ill go poke my head over there in a bit. regarding the opener, i honestly was thinking 1-1, or even a 2-1 type of a result. thought we'd come out tentative and just play "mistake-free" and get to locker room level (which we did). get the 45 min anxiety out. but cazzo!! was NOT expecting Turks to plat that way it certainly made life easier. already put in my plays for 2nd rounders will get that up in a bit.
but being honest here, put in my openening comments back on other page of how these 1st rounders tend to play out. and banging in 3 in your opener (@home no worse), is the exception, NOT the 'rule'. but because several of these behemoths got to play their openers at home, just didnt know what the **** to expect. (9-3 previous euros, 10-6 in recent WC) but didnt have the guts to do it with ours. then saw what Turkey came out with, and joined the bandwagon over here & threw some on all the remaining games. standard stuff I guess.

let this thread slide. 

just updating and toos up what sent out. its tedious doing this in two languages.  will get Round of 16 up in a bit. 

Tournament Futures:
total tourney goals U125 @+140 
over 185 total yellow cards @-105 
Total Red Cards: Less than 6 @+110 

Golden Boot: Kane @+800 

Group A:
Applicable futures:
Italy over 7.5 goals @+115 (pending) 
Turkey O3.5 @-135 (L) 4 
Italy/Switz @+170 dual (L) 
Switerland to reach Qtrs @+275 (pending) 

Azzurri Specific(posted):
Leading scorer: Belotti @+500
Jorghino @+2800
Berardi O1.5 goals

(unposted) barring major injuries set to end up 13-6 with that mass of individual specific (ie, minutes played, cards, saves, distance, passes etc etc) from roster. and need the big fella (Luk) to get called offsides 3 more times for that case of our finest ***edit*** (fyi, he's also leading the tourney. for most of us? no suprise there)

Group B:
Applicable Futures:
Belgium 9 pts @+330, 7 pts @+250 (W,L) 
Danes to reach Qtrs @+150, Semis @450 (pending)
Finland TT over 2.5 @+140 (L)
Belgium/Denmark @-130 (W)
Belgium TT O7.5 (7) + England TT(1) O8.5 +154 (pending) 
Finland to finish 4th @+550 (L)

Group C:
Applicable futures:
Ukraine TT goals O4.5 @+115 (pending) 5 (+575)
Ukraine to win Group C @+450 (L)
Austria TT O3.5 @-135 (W)
Netherlands to reach semis @+225 (pending)
Macedonia Under 1.5 goals @+140 (L)

Group D:
Applicable futures:
Scotland to finish last @-118 (W) 
Czechs to reach Qtrs @+400 (pending) 
Belgium TT O7.5 + England TT O8.5 +154 

Applicable Futures:
Group E:
Slovakia to advance @+160 (L)

Group D to have fewest goals @+510 (W)
Group C to have most goals @+530 (L) 

97 yellows 2 reds
Tourney goals stand @94 

currently at +15.6 for the Futures plays. again, with the exception of that massive Dane hedge in 3rd round, none of the risk for those individual matches were larger than any of the futures. thats about to change soon as we have a possible bunch of nice ones setup especially the Dane-Oranje Qtr. possibility so top shelf for all the work and info shared.

Round 1 plays:
Italy/Turkey U 2.5 @-125 (L)
Belgium TT O1.5 @-109 (W)
Ukraine +1/2 @+135 (L)
Scotland/Czech draw @215 (L)
Croatia +1/2 @+108 (L)
Germany pick 1st half @+104 (L)
Sweden +1/2 @+240 (W)
edit: tho didnt get chance to post all, (did get the last 4 up in time) went 7-4 the remainder of 1st rounders with that scoreless half hour prop.

Round 2 plays:
Turkey to win @+150, O1.5 @+165 (2nd half) (L, L)
Russia/Finland O2.5 @+130 (L)
Ukraine/Macedonia O2.5 @+130 (W)
Croatia/Czech U2.5 @-130 (W)
Ukraine/Macedonia O3.5 cards @+160 (L)
Croatia/Czech O3.5 cards @+156 (W)
England TT O2.5 @+162 (L)
Hungary/France O2.5 cards @-114 (L)
France -1.5 @-108 (L)

Round 3:
Italy TT O1.5 @-105 (L)
Switz/Turkey O2.5 @-122, btts @-128 (W, W)
Denmark -1.5 @+230 (big one) (W) - hedge the Fin prop.
exact score Denmark 1-0 @+700 (L)
Ukraine/Austria btts no @-130 (W) hedge TT
Scotland to win @+320 (L) hedge future
Russia/Denmark O3.5 cards @-120 (L)
Austria/Ukraine O3 @+102 (L)
Macedonia/Netherlands 2.5 @-102 (W)
Belgium/Finland O1.5 @+110 (2nd half) (W)
Croatia/Scotland O2.5 @+102, btts @-120 (W, W)
Croatia/Scotland O 3.5 cards @-120 (L)
Slovakia/Spain O1.5 @-110 (2nd half) (W)
Poland to win @+160, O3.5 cards @-105 (L, L)
France to win @+108 (L)
Hungary/Germany O2 @+110 (2nd half) (W)

up about +9  on the individuals, but again many were simply dictated by the futures, so being willing to eat losses is expected.

will let this slide again and revisit next month. 

R/16:

Wales to advance @+220 (L)
player to be booked? Verratti @+200 (L)
Croatia to advance @+305 (L), Croatia/Spain O2.5 @+112 (W)
HT draw/France win @+305, and Swiss/France @+2600 split in half (L, L)
France -1.5 @+165 (L)

Qtrs:

Czech to advance @+150 (L) hedge
Belgium to advance @+145 (L) hedge

Czech/Denmark btts @+110 (W)
Embolo to score anytime @+400 (L)
Switz/Spain U2.5 @+105 (W)
Marco to get booked @+200 (W)
England/Ukraine O1.5 @+125 (2nd half) (W)

Semis:

Italy/Spain draw 1st half @evens (W)
England/Denmark draw 1st half @+115 (W)
Italy/Spain 2nd half over 1.5 @+145 (W)
England/Denmark 2nd half over 1.5 @+154 (L)
Italy/Spain: Goal after the 70th: yes @-120 (W)
England/Denmark: Goal after the 70th: yes @-120 (L)

total: 32-33 with indiv (includes hedges)  for a few unit gain. 

Tournament Futures:
total tourney goals U125 @+140 (L) 
over 185 total yellow cards @-105 (L) 
Total Red Cards: Less than 6 @+110 (L)

Golden Boot: Kane @+800 1

Group A:
Azzurri semis @+275 (W)
Azzurri outright @+1200 (pending)
Italy over 7.5 goals @+115 (W)
Turkey O3.5 @-135 (L) 
Italy/Switz @+170 dual (L)
Switzerland to reach Qtrs @+275 (W)

13-6 with those indiv specific with Azzurri (minutes, fouls, passes etc etc)

Group B:
Belgium 9 pts @+330, 7 pts @+250 (W,L) 
Danes to reach Qtrs @+150, Semis @450 (W, W)
Finland TT over 2.5 @+140 (L)
Belgium/Denmark @-130 (W)
Belgium TT O7.5 (W) + England TT O8.5 +154 (W)
Finland to finish 4th @+550 (L)

Group C:
Ukraine TT goals O4.5 @+115 (W)
Ukraine to win Group C @+450 (L) 
Austria TT O3.5 @-135 (W)
Netherlands to reach semis @+225 (L)
Macedonia Under 1.5 goals @+140 (L)

Group D:
Scotland to finish last @-118 (W)
Czechs to reach Qtrs @+400 (W)

Group E:
Slovakia to advance @+160 (L)

Group D to have fewest goals @+510 (W)
Group C to have most goals @+530 (L)

still a few remaining but up about 58 so its been another nice tourney for us.   wont have time to update any longer so getting this out of way and let it slide. 

decent tourney. final upates:

Tournament Futures:
total tourney goals U125 @+140 (L)
over 185 total yellow cards @-105 (L)
Total Red Cards: Less than 6 @+110 (L) 

Golden Boot: Kane @+800 (L)

Group A:
Applicable futures:
Azzurri semis @+275 (W)
Azzurri outright @+1200 (W)
Italy over 7.5 goals @+115 (W)
Turkey O3.5 @-135 (L)
Italy/Switz @+170 dual (L)
Switzerland to reach Qtrs @+275 (W)

Azzurri Specific(posted):
Leading scorer: Belotti @+500 (L)
Jorghino @+2800 (L)
Berardi O1.5 goals (L)

(unposted) barring major injuries set to end up 13-6 with that mass of individual specific (ie, minutes played, cards, saves, distance, passes etc etc) from roster. and need the big fella (Luk) to get called offsides 3 more times for that case of our finest ***edit*** (fyi, he's also leading the tourney. for most of us? no suprise there)

Group B:
Applicable Futures:
Belgium 9 pts @+330, 7 pts @+250 (W,L)
Danes to reach Qtrs @+150, Semis @450 (W, W) 
Finland TT over 2.5 @+140 (L)
Belgium/Denmark @-130 (W) 
Belgium TT O7.5 (W) + England TT O8.5 +154 (W)
Finland to finish 4th @+550 (L) 

Group C:
Applicable futures:
Ukraine TT goals O4.5 @+115 (W)
Ukraine to win Group C @+450 (L)
Austria TT O3.5 @-135 (W)
Netherlands to reach semis @+225 (L)
Macedonia Under 1.5 goals @+140 (L) 

Group D:
Applicable futures:
Scotland to finish last @-118 (W)
Czechs to reach Qtrs @+400 (W) 

Applicable Futures:
Group E:
Slovakia to advance @+160 (L) 

finished 55-47 with indiv plays including hedges and overall up abt 82u.  so not too bad of a month. 

as always, our vote for the "Olive Garden Special" award goes to: Turkey.   we were waaay off on that one. 

Done.    have good summer. 

nice start at the Open for Francesco & Guido both under par.  hope to get a Top 20 fron either and the Olympic medal count O32.5:

Guido:125/1, 22/1, 10/1, 9/2
Francesco : (125/1), 22/1,  12/1, 5/1 

DONE!